Weather/seasons

finnbear270

Well-Known Member
I have read on here quite a few notes on weather events & related seasonal movements, I was just out the front of the house waiting for a delivery to roll up, Tea in hand just wandering about, thinking about yesterday being the shortest one, Wow! three flowers well open on one Camellia & breaking buds all over the one that is always last :eek:, these bushes always flower late January.
 
Same here: 24F on Saturday, going to 70 to day, and close to 80 on Christmas. The entire Eastern US, the Atlantic, over to the UK is very warm, while the Western USA and other parts of the the world are seeing ice and snow. Worst thing for us with these fronts passing through was rain; yesterday, north of me, they got 2.75 inches in an hour and a half, and 3.5 predicted for today, and that causes localized flooding.
 
Flooding is a topic big time over here, lots of people up sh*t creek & no paddle,Steve.:(, Lucky for us here, over 80 feet above the weir in town & the weir is 29 feet ASL.
 
It going to be a green Christmas this year. Weather forecast is warm up to new year.
 
Living in Cumbria, you probably don't want to hear my views on the recent weather, more of which is due in the next couple of days I believe.

But don't I recall the long range forecasters telling us that it was going to be a hard winter some months ago? Don't know what happened there so far.
 
There is a well predicted el nino currently in progress so this would generally have been expected to be a "warm" winter in those places where such events have that outcome, plus it tends to produce storms and more rain in many places. Also the Arctic Oscillation has helped exaggerate these effects just because of the way it is currently behaving. The el nino is through to be one of the strongest in a long time and is probably just at its peak.

Given all of this then we are seeing exactly the weather we might expect.
 
Benefitting from being surrounded by a slightly warmer sea the Isle of Wight does not often get the severely cold winters experienced elsewhere, despite being in a frost hollow I usually have early flowering daffodils (February Gold) out around now.

atb Tim
 
Its gone tits no cold spells and we are pushing into the new year just warmish rain ? glade I am 100 ft above the north sea , think my kids will be able to watch the posh folks who own the seafront penthouse's get washed away in the years to come :eek: or move to a houseboat . my daf's are out ! think the world is a changing sad to see but its here and there's bugger all to stop it in my lifetime
 
I'm not convinced by this sea level rising stuff. If I recall correctly it is an arbitrary mason's mark on a sea wall somewhere (Plymouth?), having lived close to the sea all my life I do not believe that it is possible to measure sea level with any degree of precision.
 
Ordnance datum from which all English levels are taken is at Newlyn, Cornwall. I would think it was more 'engineered' than 'graffitti'. OS-Net | Ordnance Survey

The uK is also pivoting about an axis running from the Wash to the Dee, with the east coast falling relative to the west which is rising. I think its about 1 cm every ten years.
 
"And Ye shall tell Winter from Summer only by the seasons". It's in the Bible somewhere.
 
Ordnance datum from which all English levels are taken is at Newlyn, Cornwall. I would think it was more 'engineered' than 'graffitti'. OS-Net | Ordnance Survey

The uK is also pivoting about an axis running from the Wash to the Dee, with the east coast falling relative to the west which is rising. I think its about 1 cm every ten years.

Thanks, I knew that it was somewhere in the SW, there is also a N-S pivot, due to the melting of the Scottish glaciers at the end of the last glaciation the land there is slowly rising whilst there is a corresponding fall along the south coast. Combine all this with the effects of factors such as continental drift, wind, rain, earthquakes, large landslides, tides/tidal ranges, phases of the moon etc. and it is not clear just how all these "experts" are able to claim with any degree of credibility that sea level is rising by the odd centimetre or fraction on of an inch each year.

atb Tim
 
I'm not convinced by this sea level rising stuff. If I recall correctly it is an arbitrary mason's mark on a sea wall somewhere (Plymouth?), having lived close to the sea all my life I do not believe that it is possible to measure sea level with any degree of precision.

Because we are coming out of an ice age so we have rising sea levels, the pattern of sea level rise since the decline of the ice is a sort of S shape in that it was slow to start off with, then the sea rose quite quickly for a while and now it has levelled off a bit. However, as you say, measuring sea level rise is tricky as some of the UK landmass is rising since the weight of the ice has been removed from it, for example, plus there are a million other factors. I think there is some thought that satellite data provides a good measure of absolute sea level but we've only had this for a few years and, well, in due course my money says someone discovers flaws with that as well. The only thing that would be strange about sea level as we come out of an ice age would be if it were not to be rising.

Pepys in his diary records a January when it was very warm and all the plants were in bloom and he became most upset about the dust from passing wagons as the roads were very dry. The same man also recorded frost fairs on the Thames because the river was completely frozen over.

The weather is, and always has been, extremely variable and I once heard a climatologist point out that in the UK any month that didn't set a record would be a record month. Our climate is the same, I love the standing stones at Callanish but they've had maybe 6 feet of peat cut away from them. What is interesting is that they are positioned on the bed rock as when they were put up the climate was about 3 degrees warmer than it is today and so conditions were unsuitable for the formation of peat, the people who put them up had no peat and had never seen peat. The warm period that came to an end, allowing the peat to grow, began with an extremely rapid increase in average temperatures that, in the UK, may have been as rapid as 5 degrees in a decade, I believe the current warming rate, as we exit the ice age, is considered to average about 0.72 degrees per century. In only another 300 years or so we might manage to reach the same temperatures, referred to by archaeologists and others as the "climate optimum," that the people who put up the standing stones experienced. In truth this is unlikely and we might be heading for a Maunder Minimum which will be a really bad, and cold, thing indeed.

Certainly we get weird weather but if you think that it is somehow more weird today because of media alarmism driven by the money raising wing of "big green" then you've simply got no sense of perspective.

 
This weather is now driving me crazy. It's forcing me to eat and drink more. The hounds just look as fed up as me.
its that wet its unreal here, it's that warm I've not lit the wood burner and it's my only sauce of heating.
my garden looks like a red rut wallow.
 
Flooded out at work again. Been in this morning. Second time in three weeks too. We had just got all the electric motors repaired and refitted and all ground floor cleaned up as well.
I suspect we may have insurance issues on renewal.

Yorkie.
 
During the Medieval Warm Period, when Greenland was discovered it was warm enough to grow cereals there. Anyone now what the sea levels were around the UK at that time? I guess the Somerset Levels were covered by salt water at the time.
 
Back
Top