http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ear...dangered-species-die-Sir-Ian-Botham-says.html
Whoops, should have wrote RSPB.
Whoops, should have wrote RSPB.
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ear...dangered-species-die-Sir-Ian-Botham-says.html
Whoops, should have wrote RSPB.
I believe that someone is killing them
.
Fact or Fiction Sir?
Please tell for the good of us all?
I believe.....
I'd be extremely pleased to be proved wrong. I wish it was an Eagle owl swooping down on them, or they'd all decided to have a long stag weekend in Prague, but I can't convince myself that these are the answers. Instead, my belief is based on probability, as is most science. Here's my working:
Adult HH typically have a 75% chance of surviving a year. Therefore, there is about a 1/4 chance they will die naturally each year (for any reason). Let's assume that this probability of death is evenly spread over the year, although in reality, its most likely they will die over winter when conditions are worst for both their prey and their predators will be most desperate, but I'm being conservative here in my calculations. Each month, a bird has 1/4 x 1/12 chance of dying. For two birds to die within a single month (if you're not going to specify the month), there is a 1/48 chance. For an additional third bird to die in that same month there is a 1/48 x 1/48 chance. That works out as a one in 2304 chance. In science, a probability of 1 in 20 is considered to be significant. The probability of 3 adult HH dying naturally within a month is more than 100 times less than that. Hence, I believe that their deaths were not natural and a likely cause of non-natural death is someone killing them. As I said before, I accept that the killers may not be keepers - they could be some perverse antis, but I stand by my belief that those 3 hen harriers have been killed.
I truly hope to be proved wrong. If you know of an alternative explanation, let me know.
I've never shot driven grouse, but have done a little walked up shooting and it was some of the most fantastic shooting that I've been fortunate to have. I don't want further restrictions on grouse or any other UK bird shooting. However, this kind of baiting of the RSPB and bunker mentality is only going to end in one way. It's rather like the SAS taking on the Chinese army. If you play the numbers game and conduct a full on frontal attack, you're doomed. Strategy, tactics and some intelligence is in order and choose the battles carefully on ground you know you can win. Suspicious deaths of charismatic raptors is not that battlefield.
Now, what do you believe, and what is your justification?
But, if you have a predator in a certain location that's locked on to a specific food source as an opportunity, then your probability calculations are a little bit flawed. Until that individual is culled, all the Hen Harriers in the vicinity are statistically far more likely to be killed by a fox than those living on an estate where the foxes haven't learned to kill them.
It's what makes predator control so important- removing the individuals who turn fleeting opportunities into a career.
Tamar, as has been intimated your calculations, whilst fine as far as they go, don't take the reasons for death into consideration. In any particular area a cause of death could well be such that it is likely to affect more than one bird. Predation is one cause that's been mentioned but that isn't the only one. Disease, overly inclement weather, a lack of food or other localised factors would affect all. Thus in circumstances such as these, the probability of three birds dying will be more akin to the mortality rate for one bird.
Here we go again.
Quote
Hen harriers are England's most threatened breeding bird of prey with only four successful nests in the whole country last year, two of which were on United Utilities Bowland Estate.
Unquote
Bull**it - as previously posted Ban Driven Grouse Shooting ePetition
We're still doing ok in N Bedfordshire.
Don't forget if you have a small sample (4 is a very small number statistically) you can't apply normal statistical tests. Also will someone please tell me if it is those nasty shooters who are doing it, why is it true that the RSPB's moorland have the worst levels of Hen Harrier survival. If no other cause is likely then someone is shooting them there as well! Not so likely is it. Please can we get away from the assumption that if we don't know what the cause is it must be nasty shooters. This is intellectually rubbish and very unhelpful. Just pointing the finger at a group you don't like might mean you miss the real cause and help lose species.
David.
There was/is no definitive proof that there was ever three male harriers, one mature male looks like it may have two females, fairly common, and a young male has been in the area for some time, no one can confirm they dissapeared becaus no one knew really how many were there in the first place!! The Forest of Bowland is rife with political infighting between local and national bird groups with the big wigs in the local group having their disturbance licences revoked and have been causing no end of trouble. I my experience the RSPB are not the most trustworthy organisation, Aye!!!! There's 3 cock harriers "supposedly" went missing!! Now, call me old & cynical, but is not "convenient" that the harries went missing JUST in time for it to get on the news the day before a general election?!!!! The RSPB hoped that if labour got in they'd licence grouse moors, you'd have to have all birds of prey breeding successfully before you'd get a licence to shoot grouse!!!! It looked likely this was going to happen!!! Now the Tories are in that's out the window!!!! Coincidence?.........my arse!!!!
No "Fact" then Tamar, just "Fiction"that does no one any good but does us all lots of harm?