OIL.

Note the bold....

The United Arab Emirates has somewhat sensationally left the OPEC oil cartel.
It’s a blow for Middle Eastern oil producers and win for the US.
The UAE’s membership will end on May 1.

For those not in the know, Vienna based OPEC (the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a grouping of nations which represents almost 80 per cent of the world’s oil reserves.

• Analysts see this as a victory for U.S. President Donald Trump, who has frequently accused OPEC of "ripping off the rest of the world" with inflated prices and wants higher production to ease energy costs.
• Why the UAE Left: The UAE seeks to maximize its production capacity, leverage its low-cost/low-carbon oil, and align with new geopolitical realities amid the ongoing Iran conflict.

The US has a score to settle with OPEC:

80% of our cars are electric cars, and the last cars with combustion engines are disappearing very quickly.
It's just that the operating costs of electric cars, maintenance and electricity cost pr kilometer are a fraction of fossil fuel.

The problem is with trucks, only 20% of our 48 tonners are electric.
Right now the limitation is of course that the electric trucks simply cannot be produced fast enough to replace the diesel ones.

The operating costs of electric trucks are only about 20% of diesel-powered ones, so all truckers want them.
The distance between stops is the same with the new electric trucks as with diesel.

12% of our electricity still comes from fossil fuels (Coal), but it is being phased out to biofuels, which are a by-product of the cities' large waste volumes.
The majority comes from wind.

In addition, Denmark buys electricity from Swedish hydroelectric power during the seldom periods of calm.

The electrification of ferries is far from complete, but experience from the first electric ferries, which have now been sailing for around 10 years, shows that they are also much more economical than fossil-fuelled ones.
The first electric planes are in the air, but they are far from ready for commercial passenger operations.

This means that only overseas sea transport and aircraft using fossil fuels are of importance.


Denmark is far from a leader in becoming independent from fossil fuels, but since Russia's invasion of Ukraine we have prepared to be able to do without them, like several other European countries, and we have since boosted the swich.
Have you not prepared for such a situation in Australia at all?

Not that I blame you if you haven't prepared, it costs a lot of money to make the switch, and many countries have chosen to continue to believe in fossil fuels.

John Gryphon said:

Note the bold....

The United Arab Emirates has somewhat sensationally left the OPEC oil cartel.
It’s a blow for Middle Eastern oil producers and win for the US.
The UAE’s membership will end on May 1.

For those not in the know, Vienna based OPEC (the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a grouping of nations which represents almost 80 per cent of the world’s oil reserves.

• Analysts see this as a victory for U.S. President Donald Trump, who has frequently accused OPEC of "ripping off the rest of the world" with inflated prices and wants higher production to ease energy costs.
• Why the UAE Left: The UAE seeks to maximize its production capacity, leverage its low-cost/low-carbon oil, and align with new geopolitical realities amid the ongoing Iran conflict.

Click to expand...

It was Trumps own deals with Opec that caused the problems.

Low oil costs is a twin edged sword for any country that has hard to reach/extract oil reserves

Opec generally wants the price lower as that maximises its control on world share.
Generally speaking the Opec/gulf countries are producing oil far far cheaper than anywhere else in the world.
Their producing a barrel for 10$ or so.
Price to produce in the US is nearer to 50.
And that is on the grade A land, which is fast running out so starting to drill grade B land so costs to produce will be even higher possibly up to $80 just to break even.
At moment America no longer has the drilling crews to keep up its current high production levels.
All these extra tankers heading to the US, it only has capacity for an extra 2 tankers per week.
And that's with refineries all working at 100%, any breakdowns will cause big problems.

And companies simply aren't drilling or exploring that much
Seemingly 23k oil workers have lost their jobs in last 28mths.

Even when Trump opened up the SPR, oil companies have hardly touched a barrel as a loan deal instead of a straight sale.
It could cost them more to put the barrels back so not touching it.

Trump lifted Bidens ban on drilling in the gulf, cue the usual headlines.
Drill baby drill!!
But forgot to lift the ban he himself imposed in his 1st term

---

So yes off course everyone will be happy if oil returns to lower prices.
UAE are just trying to make hay while prices are high.
Not sure how it is a win for Trump or USA thou.
If anything it will torpedo the US oil industry more than it already is.
It's no different to wot asia/ china has done for manufacturing in a global economy companies just go for the cheapest so profits are larger for the shareholders.

UAE leaving probably wont make massive difference to the global price long term.
Even it it cracks production up to full will only be an extra few% on the global market and most refineries are ( well were before this 'war') working at full capacity anyway.

Wether Opec increases/decreases production, other wars or lifting sanctions on Iran or Russia or even the worldslipping into a global depression so no demand will have bigger effects on global prices

bobo said:

80% of our cars are electric cars, and the last cars with combustion engines are disappearing very quickly.
It's just that the operating costs of electric cars, maintenance and electricity cost pr kilometer are a fraction of fossil fuel.

The problem is with trucks, only 20% of our 48 tonners are electric.
Right now the limitation is of course that the electric trucks simply cannot be produced fast enough to replace the diesel ones.

The operating costs of electric trucks are only about 20% of diesel-powered ones, so all truckers want them.
The distance between stops is the same with the new electric trucks as with diesel.

12% of our electricity still comes from fossil fuels (Coal), but it is being phased out to biofuels, which are a by-product of the cities' large waste volumes.
The majority comes from wind.

In addition, Denmark buys electricity from Swedish hydroelectric power during the seldom periods of calm.

The electrification of ferries is far from complete, but experience from the first electric ferries, which have now been sailing for around 10 years, shows that they are also much more economical than fossil-fuelled ones.
The first electric planes are in the air, but they are far from ready for commercial passenger operations.

This means that only overseas sea transport and aircraft using fossil fuels are of importance.


Denmark is far from a leader in becoming independent from fossil fuels, but since Russia's invasion of Ukraine we have prepared to be able to do without them, like several other European countries, and we have since boosted the swich.
Have you not prepared for such a situation in Australia at all?

Not that I blame you if you haven't prepared, it costs a lot of money to make the switch, and many countries have chosen to continue to believe in fossil fuels.

Click to expand...

Point of use emissions are lower with EVs but for the usual lifetime of domestic vehicles, their overall environmental impact is significantly worse than for ICEs, plus there is increased road wear and particulates from increased tyre wear both due to greater vehicle weights. It's just the impact is happening somewhere else in the world so everyone pretends it's not as bad. I find it pretty disgraceful TBH.

Interesting chat with my brother in law the other day. He's bought a second hand EV, which is a bonus for reducing net impact but not a get out of jail free card. If charging at home and doing short journeys he finds it cheaper but for long distances he reports the cost is similar to ICE due to opportunistic pricing at service stations for fast chargers. He also is ok with making far more stops in long journeys than I am.

WW. said:

Point of use emissions are lower with EVs but for the usual lifetime of domestic vehicles, their overall environmental impact is significantly worse than for ICEs, plus there is increased road wear and particulates from increased tyre wear both due to greater vehicle weights. It's just the impact is happening somewhere else in the world so everyone pretends it's not as bad. I find it pretty disgraceful TBH.

Interesting chat with my brother in law the other day. He's bought a second hand EV, which is a bonus for reducing net impact but not a get out of jail free card. If charging at home and doing short journeys he finds it cheaper but for long distances he reports the cost is similar to ICE due to opportunistic pricing at service stations for fast chargers. He also is ok with making far more stops in long journeys than I am.

Click to expand...

My brothers looking at either an electric buggy/UTV or pick up.

His Mrs has a 2nd hand car and it was pretty cheap, considering its spec.
But he agreed a buy back price for the motor 6 months before the battery warranty expires.
He didn't want to be stuck with a motor with no battery warranty.
He's very happy with it and the price he paid.
Gets about 270 miles I think so goes down to Manchester from s scot and can almost get back but not quite. Goes to Glasgow and back no probs.

He reckons u can get very good deals on luxury EVs 2 Yr old esp near the big cities.
As the tax incentives are so good.

countrryboy said:

My brothers looking at either an electric buggy/UTV or pick up.

His Mrs has a 2nd hand car and it was pretty cheap, considering its spec.
But he agreed a buy back price for the motor 6 months before the battery warranty expires.
He didn't want to be stuck with a motor with no battery warranty.
He's very happy with it and the price he paid.
Gets about 270 miles I think so goes down to Manchester from s scot and can almost get back but not quite. Goes to Glasgow and back no probs.

He reckons u can get very good deals on luxury EVs 2 Yr old esp near the big cities.
As the tax incentives are so good.

Click to expand...

I think that's similar to what my brother in law did regarding his second hand one. I think there's an oversupply from what I understand. For me one wouldn't work unless I kept it as second vehicle and that's before the ethics discussion.

WW. said:

Point of use emissions are lower with EVs but for the usual lifetime of domestic vehicles, their overall environmental impact is significantly worse than for ICEs, plus there is increased road wear and particulates from increased tyre wear both due to greater vehicle weights. It's just the impact is happening somewhere else in the world so everyone pretends it's not as bad. I find it pretty disgraceful TBH.

Interesting chat with my brother in law the other day. He's bought a second hand EV, which is a bonus for reducing net impact but not a get out of jail free card. If charging at home and doing short journeys he finds it cheaper but for long distances he reports the cost is similar to ICE due to opportunistic pricing at service stations for fast chargers. He also is ok with making far more stops in long journeys than I am.

Click to expand...

The 'cradle to grave' environmental pollution that EVs are causing is happening far away from city centres, which is where the majority of people live and work.

I don't know about 'saving the planet', well, EVs won't do that, but I do know that air quality is noticeably better in cities that have a higher percentage of electric vehicles (and this includes public transport vehicles).

And, EVs may have a slightly higher tyre wear rate due to their increased weight (an EV passenger car can weigh as much as a Range Rover), but this is more than offset by the near-total elimination of break dust.

I don't think that the entire world should go EV, certainly those who want to continue driving their 90 or 110 TD5s or whathaveyou in the countryside should be allowed to do that indefinitely, but if it was up to me, I'd ban all ICE cars from urban areas, permitting only zero-exhaust-emissions vehicle to be driven into city centres and densely populates residential neighbourhoods.

Point of use emissions are lower with EVs but for the usual lifetime of domestic vehicles, their overall environmental impact is significantly worse than for ICEs, plus there is increased road wear and particulates from increased tyre wear both due to greater vehicle weights. It's just the impact is happening somewhere else in the world so everyone pretends it's not as bad. I find it pretty disgraceful TBH.

Interesting chat with my brother in law the other day. He's bought a second hand EV, which is a bonus for reducing net impact but not a get out of jail free card. If charging at home and doing short journeys he finds it cheaper but for long distances he reports the cost is similar to ICE due to opportunistic pricing at service stations for fast chargers. He also is ok with making far more stops in long journeys than I am.

Click to expand...

People here don't switch based on emissions.
Back in the 2010s, people thought it was because of emissions, back then electric cars were also primitive, but since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, there is no longer any secret that we aim to free ourselves from dependence on fossil fuels.

Electricity costs about 10-20% per kilometer compared to combustion.
In addition, the service costs of an electric car are much cheaper than a combustion car.
The electric car only needs to be "checked" every 2-30,000 kilometers.
The brakes last 3 times longer than on a combustion car and so on.
We don't know the lifespan of the new generations of batteries.
But the old generation from 3-4 years ago has been shown to last at least 400,000 kilometers in taxi driving, after which the taxis here are usually scrapped.
3-4 years ago, electric cars only had half the range (in cold even less) of new electric cars.

The electric cars sold today have a range of about 1000 kilometers on a charge. It takes about 15-25 minutes to charge.
Here in Denmark there are many times more charging stations than gas stations.
A charging station is many times cheaper and easier to build and service than a gas station.
If we charge at home during periods of high wind, electricity for electric cars is free.

The price of electricity for cars is purchased in advance from various electricity companies.
This means that you charge from a phone app, and thus you pay directly to the electricity supplier you have an agreement with, at a fixed price per KW, which is independent of where in Europe you charge.

Personally, I still drive diesel, but it will definitely be electric next time.
I have a boat that I pull on a trailer behind my car, and electric cars couldn't really handle that just a few years ago.
In fact, you have to specifically order a fossil car if you want to buy one here.
No dealers get them home anymore, they simply can't be sold.

Electric trucks are so much cheaper to run that they simply can't be obtained quickly enough right now.
They can drive 5-6 hours on a charge. After 4.5 hours, the driver must take a break according to EU regulations, which fits with the charging intervals, so all trucking companies are switching as quickly as they can right now.
However, the price of a 48-ton truck is 1.5 tons less freight, since that weght is used for batteries.

My dad is 85 today.
Around 2020 he said he would NEVER own an electric car, I had similar thoughts.

Now he has one, and will never go back to fossil under any circumstances .


Can clearly see that a country like Germany is behind.
They don't have nearly the same number of charging stations when you get off the motorway. They also still mainly run on fossil fuels.
Now we'll see how it goes if I buy a new electric car.
This year's summer vacation is going by car to southern Germany, where the wife wants to see Schloss Schwangau.

markj1 said:

The 'cradle to grave' environmental pollution that EVs are causing is happening far away from city centres, which is where the majority of people live and work.

I don't know about 'saving the planet', well, EVs won't do that, but I do know that air quality is noticeably better in cities that have a higher percentage of electric vehicles (and this includes public transport vehicles).

And, EVs may have a slightly higher tyre wear rate due to their increased weight (an EV passenger car can weigh as much as a Range Rover), but this is more than offset by the near-total elimination of break dust.

I don't think that the entire world should go EV, certainly those who want to continue driving their 90 or 110 TD5s or whathaveyou in the countryside should be allowed to do that indefinitely, but if it was up to me, I'd ban all ICE cars from urban areas, permitting only zero-exhaust-emissions vehicle to be driven into city centres and densely populates residential neighbourhoods.

Click to expand...

Just because it's away from city centres doesn't make it ok or negate the harm. People should have the consequences of the emissions and damage they cause...

WW. said:

I think that's similar to what my brother in law did regarding his second hand one. I think there's an oversupply from what I understand. For me one wouldn't work unless I kept it as second vehicle and that's before the ethics discussion.

Click to expand...

There's indeed a massive oversupply of second hand luxury EVs, mainly because the majority of new cars on a business lease over the past 5 years were EVs (there are significant tax breaks for EVs leased through the business for private use), and when these cars come off the lease at 2 to 3 years old they are auctioned off to dealerships and to traders.

This is not very different to how historically some models of 3-years old fleet-favourit rep-mobiles were flooding the market in the olden days, e.g. Mondeos and Vectras and Omegas etc coming off business leases - some second hand car traders had them stacked up on their forecourts displaying very low sticker prices.

What changed is that the low BIK tax on EVs has been attracting luxury car drivers, leasing Teslas and 7-Series and S-Class and high-end Audies and Porches, all EVs, though the business.

So, yes, you can bag a deal on a second hand luxury EV.

Additionally, some manufacturers offer very long warranties for the battery - betwen 6 an 10 years - and so it's possible to buy a second hand EV with confidence

WW. said:

Just because it's away from city centres doesn't make it ok or negate the harm. People should have the consequences of the emissions and damage they cause...

Click to expand...

I agree, but at the same time, in the bigger scheme of things, replacing one type of car with another won't change anything.

The only solution, in respect of motor vehicles, is to have less of them, and drive them less.

Obviously, this requires investing in clean, efficient, and affordable public transport, but this wont happen because our government is more keen on spending money on benefits claimants than on infrastructure.

So, let's not kid ourselves: replacing ICE cars with EVs won't save the planet. Yes, EVs mean children mining Cobalt in the Congo, and ICE cars mean more oil wars in the Middle East, but, again, we are just trading one problem with another. The same applies to shipping EV batteries from China vs shipping oil from the Gulf - both are polluting, I.e. there's no 'clean' option.

Personal transport vehicles are inefficient, polluting, and are not good for the environment. Of course, we do need them, but their use should be limited to where and when necessary.

markj1 said:

Personal transport vehicles are inefficient, polluting, and are not good for the environment. Of course, we do need them, but their use should be limited to where and when necessary.

Click to expand...

Nail
On
Head

A flaw in these charging stations is that there maybe a dozen chargers BUT there is only one electricity line in and if all chargers are being used at the same time its akin to arc welding on a long lead...there is only 'so much' power that can be fed in to them all at once...people complain.

John Gryphon said:

Note the bold....

The United Arab Emirates has somewhat sensationally left the OPEC oil cartel.
It’s a blow for Middle Eastern oil producers and win for the US.
The UAE’s membership will end on May 1.

For those not in the know, Vienna based OPEC (the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a grouping of nations which represents almost 80 per cent of the world’s oil reserves.

• Analysts see this as a victory for U.S. President Donald Trump, who has frequently accused OPEC of "ripping off the rest of the world" with inflated prices and wants higher production to ease energy costs.
• Why the UAE Left: The UAE seeks to maximize its production capacity, leverage its low-cost/low-carbon oil, and align with new geopolitical realities amid the ongoing Iran conflict.

Click to expand...

The real reason

John Gryphon said:

A flaw in these charging stations is that there maybe a dozen chargers BUT there is only one electricity line in and if all chargers are being used at the same time its akin to arc welding on a long lead...there is only 'so much' power that can be fed in to them all at once...people complain.

Click to expand...

I don't think that this is the case. I would expect that the overall capacity will be distributed between the consumers. E.g. on the 300kW chargers that I used while driving through France, there was a sign saying that 300kW is the total capacity, but if two are are connected simultaneously then the 300kW capacity will split between them. Similarly I'd expect that if a charging stations has (say) 26 chargers with a capacity of 300kW each, then it won't actually have a 7.8mW input feed, instead it will have much less on the premise that not all chargers are going to be utilised to the max simultaneously, and if the overall demand does exceed the input capacity then the consumers will simply receive less than the maximum of each charger.

The grid could be a big problem if UK goes big into EVs esp Hgvs, fork lifts etc.
Some factories or industrial estates may struggle to get enough power through the grid.

Really every super market, factory should be encouraged putting solar panels over car parks or roofs where possible.
But unless u have massive battery storage solar is not going to be much good for charging EVs, as most will be done at night.


I hear in Lake Tahoe, Nevada the local power company has told all the residents from 2027 they can no longer get power from them throu the grid.
As all the power is going to a new data centre getting built.
Not sure how easy it is to find new power suppliers over there.

While a lot of EVs could be a big strain on the grid but an increase in Data farms could be a massive future problem.
The proposed 1 in Edinburgh would of drawn more power than the city.

countrryboy said:

The grid could be a big problem if UK goes big into EVs esp Hgvs, fork lifts etc.
Some factories or industrial estates may struggle to get enough power through the grid.

Really every super market, factory should be encouraged putting solar panels over car parks or roofs where possible.
But unless u have massive battery storage solar is not going to be much good for charging EVs, as most will be done at night.


I hear in Lake Tahoe, Nevada the local power company has told all the residents from 2027 they can no longer get power from them throu the grid.
As all the power is going to a new data centre getting built.
Not sure how easy it is to find new power suppliers over there.

While a lot of EVs could be a big strain on the grid but an increase in Data farms could be a massive future problem.
The proposed 1 in Edinburgh would of drawn more power than the city.

Click to expand...

Power generation capacity for EVs in the UK isn't an issue, even when everyone goes EV, as confirmed by the power companies. The problem is with the distribution infrastructure, which is better in some places than in others. Unfortunately, we're not very good at infrastructure investment in general, and the grid isn't any different.

See also:


"One of the most persistent myths about electric vehicles is that “the grid will collapse if everyone switches to electric cars”, and (understandably) it makes people pause. After all, if millions of drivers plug in at once, surely something has to give?

In reality, the opposite is true. The UK electricity grid already has substantial spare capacity, particularly overnight when demand is lowest, and most EV charging naturally happens. When you add smart charging technology, phased EV adoption, and major long-term grid investment, the idea of EVs overwhelming the system simply doesn’t hold up."

markj1 said:

I don't think that this is the case. I would expect that the overall capacity will be distributed between the consumers. E.g. on the 300kW chargers that I used while driving through France, there was a sign saying that 300kW is the total capacity, but if two are are connected simultaneously then the 300kW capacity will split between them. Similarly I'd expect that if a charging stations has (say) 26 chargers with a capacity of 300kW each, then it won't actually have a 7.8mW input feed, instead it will have much less on the premise that not all chargers are going to be utilised to the max simultaneously, and if the overall demand does exceed the input capacity then the consumers will simply receive less than the maximum of each charger.

Click to expand...

This is Austraya ,some snippets below.

Australia’s EV infrastructure is currently facing "growing pains." Key issues include long weekend queues, charger downtime, fragmented payment networks, and sparse regional coverage. Consequently, there are roughly 68 EVs competing for every public charge point nationwide—more than six times the global average.

or slowed power delivery (e.g., sharing a station's capacity with other plugged-in vehicles). ( I mentioned this)

During holidays like Easter, queues of an hour or more are common at popular tourist hubs. Building a public network strictly for these peak times remains economically unviable

There are some stretches (like between Nullarbor Roadhouse and Norseman) with 900+ km gaps between DC fast chargers. Some sections rely on lower-speed 22kW AC chargers.

I believe that hybrids are better suited here...at least you can carry a 20L drum of juice with you.

markj1 said:

Power generation capacity for EVs in the UK isn't an issue, even when everyone goes EV, as confirmed by the power companies. The problem is with the distribution infrastructure, which is better in some places than in others. Unfortunately, we're not very good at infrastructure investment in general, and the grid isn't any different.

See also:

Can The UK Grid Handle Electric Cars? Myth Busting 2026 | The Electric Car Scheme

Debunking the EV grid myth: UK has 20-30GW spare overnight capacity, smart charging optimizes load, and The Charge Scheme enables strategic grid integration.

www.electriccarscheme.com

"One of the most persistent myths about electric vehicles is that “the grid will collapse if everyone switches to electric cars”, and (understandably) it makes people pause. After all, if millions of drivers plug in at once, surely something has to give?

In reality, the opposite is true. The UK electricity grid already has substantial spare capacity, particularly overnight when demand is lowest, and most EV charging naturally happens. When you add smart charging technology, phased EV adoption, and major long-term grid investment, the idea of EVs overwhelming the system simply doesn’t hold up."

Click to expand...

I think u will be right for cars.
My brothers charges of a 8kw charger at his house, but that is basically an electric shower.

But if ur running a fleet of big tranny vans, likes of amazon or DPD etc.
That would take some serious power.
And if u have a few depots in the same area ( which is true for Carlisle at Kingstown ind est, amz and dpd almost next door)

Throw in some proper haulage companies with a fleet of 8 wheel tippers, concrete jeaggers and HGVs.
Possibly some forklifts, handlers and loading shovels.
U will really be testing the grid and local sub stations.
And most of that will be when solar is offline.


I'm all for green energy to an extent.
But say the winters of 2010/11 and 11/12.
We had 6 to 8 weeks of proper high pressure and hard frost -10s pushing -20.
Windmills hardly turned for the whole 6+ weeks.
And while it was sunny I don't imagine ur getting a lot of solar in the 6hrs daylight we get at that time off year.
Yet those vans would all need to be fully charged for the next day.

Must admit I'm amazed the Edison Motors truck design has not taken off.
It seems the way forward to me.
Fully electric drive HGV with batteries but has a diesel electric genny where the engine should be.
Basically same concept as a diesel train and i think some very heavy duty mining dumpers.
.
He's working remote Canada bush hauling and hauling some big loads 60+T with it.
He's now making other specialist heavy haul trucks for the oil industry

Says the constant power is amazing for towing.
U like an ICE with manual box and turbo, ur constantly changing to keep it in a power band.

He's trying to develop retro fit kits for pick ups
Replace ur axles for electric drive add some batteries.
Not sure just how well it would work in modern uk picks thou as so many electrics in them.
Prob work well in an old LR 90/110 with little electrics.