Page 1 of 4 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 36

Thread: Beefy Blasts RSPB

  1. #1

    Beefy Blasts RSPB

    Last edited by JAYB; 20-05-2015 at 09:15. Reason: wrong title

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by Pedro View Post
    Some fine words from Sir Ian

  3. #3
    I'm afraid that 'Sir Ian' is not doing himself or anyone involved in shooting any favours here. Three of the four male harriers on Bowland have vanished within a few weeks. It stinks. Sure, some birds may be predated, but adult males have a relatively high annual survival - about 75% I think and this not concentrated during the breeding season, but more common in winter. I believe that someone is killing them and the RSPB along with local raptor groups are trying to stop this. If the spokespeople for grouse shooting interests had any PR sense, they too would be throwing their full weight behind catching whoever is responsible (you never know - it could even be someone with a grudge against shooting trying to stir up rage: Tin foil hat now off). Botham suggests that keepers would do a better job of protecting the birds, presumably by shooting predators, but I'm not sure that nest robbers come under AOLQ.

    Despite impressions of some to the contrary, the RSPB is not, at the moment, vehemently anti shooting. Indeed, it's frequently attacked by other conservationsists for being too reticent. We have to remember that it is a membership organisation with (as we're repeatedly told) over a million members. This makes them politically powerful. This kind of abuse and criticism will just drive them into a more entrenched position and harden their opposition to shooting. Idiotic.

    Hold your friends close....

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Tamar View Post
    I believe that someone is killing them
    .
    Fact or Fiction Sir?

    Please tell for the good of us all?

  5. #5
    Here we go again.

    Quote

    Hen harriers are England's most threatened breeding bird of prey with only four successful nests in the whole country last year, two of which were on United Utilities Bowland Estate.

    Unquote

    Bull**it - as previously posted Ban Driven Grouse Shooting ePetition

    We're still doing ok in N Bedfordshire.
    Last edited by Eyefor; 19-05-2015 at 16:01.
    Handle every stressful situation like a dog. If you can't eat it, hump it or learn from it then piss on it and walk away.

    "HOSPITALITY" - the art of making guests feel at home (when you wish they were).



  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by old man View Post
    Fact or Fiction Sir?

    Please tell for the good of us all?
    I believe.....

    I'd be extremely pleased to be proved wrong. I wish it was an Eagle owl swooping down on them, or they'd all decided to have a long stag weekend in Prague, but I can't convince myself that these are the answers. Instead, my belief is based on probability, as is most science. Here's my working:

    Adult HH typically have a 75% chance of surviving a year. Therefore, there is about a 1/4 chance they will die naturally each year (for any reason). Let's assume that this probability of death is evenly spread over the year, although in reality, its most likely they will die over winter when conditions are worst for both their prey and their predators will be most desperate, but I'm being conservative here in my calculations. Each month, a bird has 1/4 x 1/12 chance of dying. For two birds to die within a single month (if you're not going to specify the month), there is a 1/48 chance. For an additional third bird to die in that same month there is a 1/48 x 1/48 chance. That works out as a one in 2304 chance. In science, a probability of 1 in 20 is considered to be significant. The probability of 3 adult HH dying naturally within a month is more than 100 times less than that. Hence, I believe that their deaths were not natural and a likely cause of non-natural death is someone killing them. As I said before, I accept that the killers may not be keepers - they could be some perverse antis, but I stand by my belief that those 3 hen harriers have been killed.

    I truly hope to be proved wrong. If you know of an alternative explanation, let me know.

    I've never shot driven grouse, but have done a little walked up shooting and it was some of the most fantastic shooting that I've been fortunate to have. I don't want further restrictions on grouse or any other UK bird shooting. However, this kind of baiting of the RSPB and bunker mentality is only going to end in one way. It's rather like the SAS taking on the Chinese army. If you play the numbers game and conduct a full on frontal attack, you're doomed. Strategy, tactics and some intelligence is in order and choose the battles carefully on ground you know you can win. Suspicious deaths of charismatic raptors is not that battlefield.

    Now, what do you believe, and what is your justification?

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Tamar View Post
    I believe.....

    I'd be extremely pleased to be proved wrong. I wish it was an Eagle owl swooping down on them, or they'd all decided to have a long stag weekend in Prague, but I can't convince myself that these are the answers. Instead, my belief is based on probability, as is most science. Here's my working:

    Adult HH typically have a 75% chance of surviving a year. Therefore, there is about a 1/4 chance they will die naturally each year (for any reason). Let's assume that this probability of death is evenly spread over the year, although in reality, its most likely they will die over winter when conditions are worst for both their prey and their predators will be most desperate, but I'm being conservative here in my calculations. Each month, a bird has 1/4 x 1/12 chance of dying. For two birds to die within a single month (if you're not going to specify the month), there is a 1/48 chance. For an additional third bird to die in that same month there is a 1/48 x 1/48 chance. That works out as a one in 2304 chance. In science, a probability of 1 in 20 is considered to be significant. The probability of 3 adult HH dying naturally within a month is more than 100 times less than that. Hence, I believe that their deaths were not natural and a likely cause of non-natural death is someone killing them. As I said before, I accept that the killers may not be keepers - they could be some perverse antis, but I stand by my belief that those 3 hen harriers have been killed.

    I truly hope to be proved wrong. If you know of an alternative explanation, let me know.

    I've never shot driven grouse, but have done a little walked up shooting and it was some of the most fantastic shooting that I've been fortunate to have. I don't want further restrictions on grouse or any other UK bird shooting. However, this kind of baiting of the RSPB and bunker mentality is only going to end in one way. It's rather like the SAS taking on the Chinese army. If you play the numbers game and conduct a full on frontal attack, you're doomed. Strategy, tactics and some intelligence is in order and choose the battles carefully on ground you know you can win. Suspicious deaths of charismatic raptors is not that battlefield.

    Now, what do you believe, and what is your justification?
    But, if you have a predator in a certain location that's locked on to a specific food source as an opportunity, then your probability calculations are a little bit flawed. Until that individual is culled, all the Hen Harriers in the vicinity are statistically far more likely to be killed by a fox than those living on an estate where the foxes haven't learned to kill them.
    It's what makes predator control so important- removing the individuals who turn fleeting opportunities into a career.

  8. #8
    You say that "there is about a 1/4 chance they will die naturally each year (for any reason)".

    But there are a myriad of reasons which could be "natural".

    When you say someone is killing them, what do you believe is the method, poison, shooting, pollution?

    No bodies have been found of the male HHs, so no autopsies. The females have abandoned the nests due to starvation, but these have not been killed in the same manner.

    So you think whomever has killed the males has been selective as between sexes?

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Crosshair243 View Post
    But, if you have a predator in a certain location that's locked on to a specific food source as an opportunity, then your probability calculations are a little bit flawed. Until that individual is culled, all the Hen Harriers in the vicinity are statistically far more likely to be killed by a fox than those living on an estate where the foxes haven't learned to kill them.
    It's what makes predator control so important- removing the individuals who turn fleeting opportunities into a career.
    Possibly true - but how many foxes have home ranges covering at this time of year of basically the whole Forest of Bowland, and what is the chance of a single fox 'locking on' to male HH when there are only single digit numbers of them on the forest. Not much chance of making a career out of that.


    It's easy to prove me wrong. If it's a predator - say a fox - then I expect that the bodies or feathers will be found fairly swiftly with bite marks on them. As I said, I hope you're right, but I fear not. Happy to eat humble pie.

  10. #10
    Tamar, as has been intimated your calculations, whilst fine as far as they go, don't take the reasons for death into consideration. In any particular area a cause of death could well be such that it is likely to affect more than one bird. Predation is one cause that's been mentioned but that isn't the only one. Disease, overly inclement weather, a lack of food or other localised factors would affect all. Thus in circumstances such as these, the probability of three birds dying will be more akin to the mortality rate for one bird.

Similar Threads

  1. rspca
    By finnbear270 in forum Deer Stalking General
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 12-08-2013, 17:31
  2. How does the RSPCA get away with this
    By Scots_stalker in forum Deer Stalking General
    Replies: 17
    Last Post: 18-02-2013, 22:44
  3. Rspca
    By bobt in forum Deer Stalking General
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 05-01-2013, 20:19
  4. Rspca
    By Paul LCB in forum Deer Stalking General
    Replies: 12
    Last Post: 29-12-2012, 16:55
  5. RSPCA does it again
    By The Seeker in forum Deer Stalking General
    Replies: 13
    Last Post: 01-05-2012, 18:57

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •