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Thread: Global Warming, Brian Cox and When The Facts Get in the Way of Your Narrative

  1. #1

    Global Warming, Brian Cox and When The Facts Get in the Way of Your Narrative

    Today I went to a seminar at the Institute of Public Affairs, a not for profit think tank. I listened to a scientist Jennifer Marohasy debunking Prof. Cox recent invitation and TV narrative on climate change by examining the Graph Prof. Cox presented as conclusive proof of climate change, with all the leftist, greeny, morons clapping away. http://jennifermarohasy.com/2016/08/...ruth-to-power/

    While it might bore some people I'll cut to the chase. The graph that Cox refers to as conclusive proof of global warming is homogenised, adjusted data.

    Marohasy explains why that data set does not tell the full story and why data collected since the late 1880s in Australia, pre- industrialisation, pre-carbon emmissions from two stations that use the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stevenson_screen show that infact Eastern Australia has exhibited a 0.4 degree Celsius COOLING.


    In short the science is not well understood, the data before 1960 does not support that the climate is affected by CO2 emissions and that I would place almost zero value on the Global Circulation Models. I could go onto the other scientist that presented the viral theory to model climate with how little impact C02 in the atmosphere has on the global climate but its well outside my level of mathematical understanding.
    Last edited by mchughcb; 05-12-2016 at 09:03.
    Blaser K95 Stutzen - the ultimate deer stalking rifle

  2. #2
    I'm reluctant to get drawn into one of these discussions, but how would you explain the large and consistent changes in phenology (the timing of natural events - like tree leafing, bird breeding, flowering etc etc) across temperate latitudes?

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Mungo View Post
    I'm reluctant to get drawn into one of these discussions, but how would you explain the large and consistent changes in phenology (the timing of natural events - like tree leafing, bird breeding, flowering etc etc) across temperate latitudes?

    Rising Carbon Dioxide is triggering the effects and not temperature? Just a thought but not one much investigated.

    David.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Mungo View Post
    I'm reluctant to get drawn into one of these discussions, but how would you explain the large and consistent changes in phenology (the timing of natural events - like tree leafing, bird breeding, flowering etc etc) across temperate latitudes?
    What time period for reference are you talking about?
    Blaser K95 Stutzen - the ultimate deer stalking rifle

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by mchughcb View Post
    What time period for reference are you talking about?
    A few data sets go back to the 1600s, with numerous high quality ones starting during the Victorian era, and a vast number since ww2.

    The consistency between them is remarkable, and shows continuing change toward earlier onset of growth or breeding in spring.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Kalahari View Post
    Rising Carbon Dioxide is triggering the effects and not temperature? Just a thought but not one much investigated.

    David.
    Reasonable alternative hypothesis. Now suggest a mechanism.

    By which I mean how would elevated co2 cause trees to come into leaf earlier, birds to migrate earlier, caterpillars to emerge earlier etc etc.

  7. #7
    Counter theories also need to explain the increasing frequencies of extreme weather events or events associated with them - hurricanes, droughts, forest fires, coral bleaching etc.

    And need to explain the measured increases in ocean acidification.

    You can create plausible localised alternative explanations - though often by resorting to a lot of special pleading. But the only theory that is capable of explaining it all, at a global level, is that anthropogenic co2 is having an effect.

    I remain utterly mystified as to why anyone thinks governments or scientists have any incentive to make this up. Admitting that co2 induced climate change is real then leads to pressure to limit industrial activity and impose restraints on personal consumption that no sane government would ever want to do voluntarily.

  8. #8
    Strange you should ask about coral bleaching which in the panel of scientists today we had a world expert on Corals from the James Cook University and why the Great Barrier Reef is growing at 11% per year. Bleaching is a natural phenomena and more related to the stag coral. The process is whereby the "Coral bleaching is the loss of intracellular endosymbionts (Symbiodinium, also known as zooxanthellae) from coral either through expulsion or loss of algal pigmentation." This occurs when there is a seasonal change in water temperature, not a gradual change. It was explained and shown that coral does infact regrow and with more temperature variation resistant zooxanthellae. The stag coral has a shelf life of around 30 years if its not already killed in a cyclone. I was interested that the current aboriginal settlement predates the current coral growing one the barrier reef and infact current expansion only happened about 5000 years ago. The other "brain" type of coral are far more resistant and live for few hundred years and based on the evidence are continuing to expand. The hotter temperatures towards Indonesia results in a faster growing coral not a slower. Therefore saying that the colder regions will die because of warmer waters is completely false. Also what was interested was the mass spawning. The spawning will be either sent up to the north or to the south some several hundred kilometres where there are temperature variations of a few degrees and yet the coral will live.
    Blaser K95 Stutzen - the ultimate deer stalking rifle

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Mungo View Post
    A few data sets go back to the 1600s, with numerous high quality ones starting during the Victorian era, and a vast number since ww2.

    The consistency between them is remarkable, and shows continuing change toward earlier onset of growth or breeding in spring.
    That is interesting too because they had graphs going back a little further than the 1600s with correlation with I can't remember but maybe it was growth rings or ice core but anyway if you go back further than the 1600s and then to the 1200s you find that we had a hot period, followed by a mini ice age back to warming . So again, it depends how far you want to go back and where you draw your trends on.

    For the global circulation models they compared them with the rainfall models derived by our bureau of meterology as a predictor for rainfall in South Western Australia (big wheat producer). The physical model they used was compared to a neural network model of statistical analysis of the last 100 years of rainfall. The models were updated every two weeks for a 9 month predictor of rainfall. The physical model used by the government was 4% accurate and the neural network was 60% accurate when compared to 2015 and 2016 data (from memory). The point being that the statistical AI approach was and order of magnitude better than the physical model and more useful for farmers yet people take a GCM physical model and believe its like the gospel. I'll see if I can post some photos I took of the slides.
    Blaser K95 Stutzen - the ultimate deer stalking rifle

  10. #10

    A real coral scientists talks about the biggest reef in the world

    Here is his talk. Get the word out there.
    Blaser K95 Stutzen - the ultimate deer stalking rifle

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