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Thread: The future of Diesel cars

  1. #1
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    The future of Diesel cars

    Toyota have announced they will no longer make/install diesel engines from sometime this year. It will not be long before those of us who have diesel cars will have little residual value left and perhaps no alternative to run such vehicles into the ground.
    I was talking to a chap today who regarded the demise of diesel as a political betrayal, yet another abuse of the the public, increasingly disenfranchised by an arrogant political elite. Interesting to meet someone who made me feel 'controlled' in my criticism.

  2. #2
    They are continuing to build diesel vans and Landcruisers.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Greymaster View Post
    They are continuing to build diesel vans and Landcruisers.
    Sorry - I should perhaps have explicitly stated cars/most SUV's, in the first sentence as well as 'cars' later.

  4. #4
    I think we have a few years left yet. In fact they may even go up in value as more and more come off the road. Anyway, I've had mine 11 years now.
    What are they going to do about trucks?
    Battery powered cars are in their infancy. And still have to crack the length of travel and recharging. But that will come. Hopefully sooner rather than later.
    i would consider an electric car except currently they are beyond my pocket. But if you consider I do 44 miles to and from work I would happily have something that would be very cheap to run as long as it would charge overnight. But the problem comes at the weekend, that is when I need fossil fuel.
    I can speak in-depth and with great knowledge about most subjects until some bugger who actually knows what he is speaking about opens his gob .

  5. #5
    VW issued a statement today explicitly in favour of diesel cars, saying that the current drop in popularity and sales is not reflective of the available technology or their future. Yes its a bit ironic coming from VW and I'm sure its a competitive reaction to the Toyota announcment.

    I think a lot of the current anti-diesel blah blah is underpinned by a lot of dark arts and lobbying by very influential people in large Japanese motor corporations, taking advantage of the massive VW fail. Lets face it, VW opened the door very wide, and the competition walked right in. BMW and Merc must be hating VW now, for getting caught.

    Diesel passenger cars have never been made in great numbers by Toyota, they are pretty much non-existent in Japan and most of their non-Euro export markets. Toyota is invested in small petrol hybrid tech, VW is invested those too but also very heavily invested in diesel.

    All this hand-wringing over diesel vs petrol pollution is already being challenged by some extremely divisive research that asks lots of questions of the political position taken by several large Euro cities.

  6. #6
    I wonder why Toyota haven't built a decent working vehicle like a Hilux or Landcruiser with a petrol Hybrid...they have the 500bhp power unit in the Lexus SUV...our little 17 year old Prius is brilliant for power and efficiency I think...but they do not allow you to stick a tow bar on it or the Lexus for some reason.

    The instant low rev. torque of the electric motor should be brilliant for towing and off road.

    Alan

  7. #7
    I hate diesels (and I own three of them) but the fuel economy is fantastic with my Rav 4 doing 47mpg and my 3.0BMW 42mpg. My NV200 van about 40 something. They solved the big problem for me which was the old tractor sound. The BMW actualy sounds pretty good when worked hard and whilst not a nice sound, the Rav is OK

    Sadly when they age they start to pump out a shed load of particulates. Hard acceleration in my 120,000mile Rav4 is embarrassing. So I do hate them and I think they are a kind of necessary evil for me

    The problem is the big move over to hybrid cars is hurting the government badly.

    Fuel duty is worth 35 billion a year

    The govt make apx 52p for every pound of fuel you pump into your car

    The govt make 5p in the pound from electric

    At predicted growth the estimated losses in fuel duty revenue over the next 10 years is about 80,billion pounds

    With Hybrids being claimed as "green" the govt cant tax them so they will focus on other cars. These days petrol cars are usually purchased by people who don't do big mileage so the obvious answer is to make diesel look bad, claim to be saving the planet and tax the balls out of the higher millage drivers who use the most fuel.

    The next big idea is taxing us on mileage. So the people in remote areas and the people forced to commute in cars (as they can neither afford the inner city house prices nor the 6000+ a year train fairs) will be hit the hardest. As will business logistics which will increase prices generally resulting in yet more revenue for HMRC.

    Our motering tax future doesn't look pleasant


    Worst of all I wouldn't mind if hybrid & electric cars were actualy green. All those NiMH batteries are in them salves a massive polluting issue and the manufacturing is less than green as well.


    I personaly feel all the hype over hybrid and electric is distracting motoring companies from building super efficient diesels with vastly improved particulate filters.


    So who remembers the big push in the 1980 from the government with the Go Green Go Diesel chant

    It was a bit like now with all the upper management going Tesla when the old boys gave up their Jags for Diesels to show how green they were.
    Last edited by Chasey; 07-03-2018 at 01:31.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chasey View Post

    The problem is the big move over to hybrid cars is hurting the government badly.

    Fuel duty is worth 35 billion a year


    At predicted growth the estimated losses in fuel duty revenue over the next 10 years is about 80,billion pounds

    That isn't even the real issue with electric cars.


    This: https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...DUKES_2017.pdf

    states that maximum 2016 demand for electricity of 51.2GW accounted for 77% of total available generating capacity (Page 120). It also states that transport mileage in th UK uses the equivalent of 463.6TWh of power per annum (maths at the bottom, figures from pg. 66 in the above). Meeting this demand with electric power equates to an additional 52.92GW of generating capacity in the national grid, which represents a 40% increase over current capacity or 17 additional plants the size of Hinckley Point C. And that's the best case. In the real world even more will be required as demand will not be evenly distributed around the clock.

    Effectively, any meaningful uptake of electric cars in the UK over the next 5 to 10 years means power cuts, rationing, and a desperate scramble to build more power plants on a scale that we have never had to before. Plus they'll have to be nuclear to be economical and any greener in real terms, so we'll be buying them from the Chinese or the French at a total market cost of 324Bn. Plus, even if they start now it'll be 8 years before they go online.

    Weirdly though, despite the government commitment to electric vehicles, they're not doing anything at all to actually cover this expected spike in demand. Maybe they don't think electric cars'll catch on? Also worth considering that London alone probably accounts for at least 5% of this annual mileage, so if the 2040 zero emission zone is to go ahead as planned, I hope they've factored 20Bn or so for the 3GW of additional electricity generation into their value estimates...

    Maths for those who like such things:

    Petrol = 12M tonnes pa (45.8MJ/KG)
    Diesel = 24.6M tonnes pa (45.5MJ/KG)

    Petrol = 5.496E11 MJ
    Diesel = 1.1193E12 MJ
    Total = 1.6689E12 MJ = 463.6TWh

    463.6/(24*365) = 0.05292TW = 52.92GW additional capacity (Assuming peak demand)

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Chasey View Post
    I hate diesels (and I own three of them) but the fuel economy is fantastic with my Rav 4 doing 47mpg and my 3.0BMW 42mpg. My NV200 van about 40 something. They solved the big problem for me which was the old tractor sound. The BMW actualy sounds pretty good when worked hard and whilst not a nice sound, the Rav is OK

    Sadly when they age they start to pump out a shed load of particulates. Hard acceleration in my 120,000mile Rav4 is embarrassing. So I do hate them and I think they are a kind of necessary evil for me

    The problem is the big move over to hybrid cars is hurting the government badly.

    Fuel duty is worth 35 billion a year

    The govt make apx 52p for every pound of fuel you pump into your car

    The govt
    make 5p in the pound from electric

    At predicted growth the estimated losses in fuel duty revenue over the next 10 years is about 80,billion pounds

    With Hybrids being claimed as "green" the govt cant tax them so they will focus on other cars. These days petrol cars are usually purchased by people who don't do big mileage so the obvious answer is to make diesel look bad, claim to be saving the planet and tax the balls out of the higher millage drivers who use the most fuel.

    The next big idea is taxing us on mileage. So the people in remote areas and the people forced to commute in cars (as they can neither afford the inner city house prices nor the 6000+ a year train fairs) will be hit the hardest. As will business logistics which will increase prices generally resulting in yet more revenue for HMRC.

    Our motering tax future doesn't look pleasant


    Worst of all I wouldn't mind if hybrid & electric cars were actualy green. All those NiMH batteries are in them salves a massive polluting issue and the manufacturing is less than green as well.


    I personaly feel all the hype over hybrid and electric is distracting motoring companies from building super efficient diesels with vastly improved particulate filters.


    So who remembers the big push in the 1980 from the government with the Go Green Go Diesel chant

    It was a bit like now with all the upper management going Tesla when the old boys gave up their Jags for Diesels to show how green they were.
    I was told this is why the big push for smart meters. In the future when you plug you electric car in it tells the meter which then applies a surcharge (tax) to the electric used, this then goes to the Government. True or false I don't know, but it certainly seems more than just highly likely. Easier and cheaper than administering a mileage tax, and possibly a little less open to fraud.

  10. #10
    Easier still is just raise the tax on all electricity consumed.

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