“Be afraid, be very afraid” (but then do something helpful about it)

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xavierdoc

Well-Known Member
“Be afraid, be very afraid" (The Fly?!)



Fear is often thought of as a negative thing, particularly in a national crisis event, however, if the response to fear is appropriate, it can be beneficial.

Watch the video below (it might seem technical but most viewers will understand the implications.)


Exponential growth (which can occur in an epidemic disease outbreak like Covid-19) can lead to scary numbers but, as the video illustrates, small changes early enough at the right time will lead to huge reductions in the final number infected.


There are various equations involved <YAWN>, which can put people off, but one of the basic (uncorrected) ones is:



Reducing E and p in the equation should be our goal as a society:


Reducing "E" means reducing exposure of non-infected people to infected people (who may not know), achieved by social-distancing, self-isolating/quarantine, not-travelling/avoiding gatherings

Reducing "p" means reducing the chance of infection occurring when non-infected meets infected, achieved by eg. regular hand-washing, social-distancing, cleaning of contaminated surfaces/objects

In the video he makes the interesting point that fear can help by improving compliance with the necessary measures. Unfortunately fear currently seems to be causing people to panic buy, inadvertently increasing "E" by bringing them into close proximity, before dispersing.

If we don't get this slowed now, we are royally screwed. Even if we succeed, rolling "lockdowns" of 2 months, with 1 month "freedom" gaps are likely to be required in the future to avoid new, overwhelming outbreaks. This would continue until mass vaccination is achieved.

So, “be afraid, be very afraid", but channel your fear into motivating you and your friends/family/businesses/colleagues to adhere to the "lock down" and hygiene advice. It will become very hard to maintain resolve, yet vital.



 

Cumbrian 1

Well-Known Member
This country has quickly gone mad, panic buying is simply selfish and pointless, the medical staff in the NHS are working unprecedented shifts it cannot be that difficult for the Government to simply set up supply depots at hospitals so when staff finish their shifts they can pick up bread, milk and other daily necessities before heading home rather than having to go via a local supermarket to find sweet fa.
 

VSS

Well-Known Member
Be afraid? Why should we be afraid of something which has the potential to deliver massive long term benefits to our planet? See already the huge reductions in CO2 emissions and air pollution as a result of reduced human activity (albeit temporary, at moment).
I confess I am rather more excited than afraid. My only fear is that if we are successful in overcoming this virus relatively quickly it will simply reinforce people's arrogant belief that we are an invincible species, and everyone will go back to making a mess of the world, just as before. (Which would only be delaying the inevitable, because if we get this one beat then you can be pretty sure that the next one will be worse).
However, if enough people die in this outbreak then the world will indeed be a better place going forward. I know that's not the PC thing to say, but it's a truth that no-one can deny.
Let the disease run it's course, I say. The natural balance needs to be reset.

(And yes, I fully accept that I may not be one of the survivors).
 

Odders

Well-Known Member
Be afraid? Why should we be afraid of something which has the potential to deliver massive long term benefits to our planet? See already the huge reductions in CO2 emissions and air pollution as a result of reduced human activity (albeit temporary, at moment).
I confess I am rather more excited than afraid. My only fear is that if we are successful in overcoming this virus relatively quickly it will simply reinforce people's arrogant belief that we are an invincible species, and everyone will go back to making a mess of the world, just as before. (Which would only be delaying the inevitable, because if we get this one beat then you can be pretty sure that the next one will be worse).
However, if enough people die in this outbreak then the world will indeed be a better place going forward. I know that's not the PC thing to say, but it's a truth that no-one can deny.
Let the disease run it's course, I say. The natural balance needs to be reset.

(And yes, I fully accept that I may not be one of the survivors).

Trouble is, even at the highest rate of deaths to infection, the population loss will be less than 5% of the total, or at most 400 million.
At the current rate, that's 3 years worth of births & many of those deaths have only been brought forward by less than that time anyway.
It would take something as lethal as MERS (death rate 34%) but the infection rate of covid-19 to get anywhere near making a difference.
 

VSS

Well-Known Member
Trouble is, even at the highest rate of deaths to infection, the population loss will be less than 5% of the total, or at most 400 million.
At the current rate, that's 3 years worth of births & many of those deaths have only been brought forward by less than that time anyway.
It would take something as lethal as MERS (death rate 34%) but the infection rate of covid-19 to get anywhere near making a difference.
No, to be beneficial it would only take enough deaths to make people take a long hard look at the way we have behaved in the past, and the way we should behave in the future. Enough to fully remind us of our fragility and teach us our proper place in the world's ecosystems.
Admittedly a big population reduction would be a bonus, but that may not happen, as you so rightly point out.
 

Odders

Well-Known Member
No, to be beneficial it would only take enough deaths to make people take a long hard look at the way we have behaved in the past, and the way we should behave in the future. Enough to fully remind us of our fragility and teach us our proper place in the world's ecosystems.
Admittedly a big population reduction would be a bonus, but that may not happen, as you so rightly point out.

Nah - there's too many stupid, ignorant, selfish & uneducated people on the planet for that to work.
 

enfieldspares

Well-Known Member
What SHOULD be the result of this is that any involvement of Huawei with UK infrastructure or indeed any involvement of any Chinese company with UK infrastructure should be terminated immediately. Not out of racism but from the fact that we will need investment within so that the profits stay within the UK or EU and the revenue from the tax on those profits and the tax on the dividends paid by that company to it shareholders also stays in the UK or the EU.
 
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