BREXIT - DEAL/NO DEAL and Consequences

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kes

Well-Known Member
One of my farmer friends is having a 'meeting of minds' over BREXIT to discuss what will happen with either a deal or no deal. Gove makes a transparent comment today of the likelhood of no deal to psyche junkers but I feel we will leave without a deal as the EU is trying to psyche out all its other members from thinking of leaving.
I would giev the EU 12 months at most before the cracks are so obvious that the Union will collapse.
Anyone any thoughts I can contribute to the discussion - it may become a bit loquacious later on !!!
 

reloader54

Well-Known Member
If you thought your basc posts were a hot topic,,, wait until this gains momentum, :rofl:

I don't know what will happen when we leave the eu, I can't be certain we even will,[it wouldn't be the first time the powers that be have lied to us,eh]

but I predict this thread will be closed pretty soon, probably before nightfall.;)

I do however think you're spot on regarding imminent eu collapse.
 

Alantoo

Well-Known Member
Given that almost half the referendum voters wanted to remain, any Westminster Government was on a hiding for nothing. They have had a real juggling act to try and match that mandate. Had it been as clear a landslide vote as the 1974 referendum result it would have been a lot simpler for both Westminster and the remaining EU members to resolve a complete split.

Given the usual situation where 60% of the pubic voted against the policies of the elected government due to our blatantly undemocratic "first past the post system" what can we expect?

Half hearted public opinion/referendum result, half hearted negotiation, half hearted resolution? We deserve it all.

Alan
 

JTO

Well-Known Member
I think a return to deficiency payments, from what I remember of them, would be more acceptable to Joe Public than merely giving people c£100 per acre per year for owning farmland.
 

enfieldspares

Well-Known Member
Seems to me Theresa May is like the person that leaves the syndicate but still expects to be able to turn up and enjoy the shooting but accept no obligation to turn up on the work days or beat on the Beaters' Day. All the benefits but with no obligations.

Deal or No Deal? The UK is leaving the EU. Not the EU leaving the UK. Fundamental to the EU is the "Four Freedoms". Simply put why should they give us a deal that allows us to cherry pick the benefits of membership with none of its responsibilities?

The Chequers White Paper is a "deal" that benefits the bankers, the brokers and hedge funds. It doesn't benefit the individual. If Free Movement Rights are lost as an individual I lose that right.

And if there is a "No Deal"? Types like Rees Mogg...as he is already counselling...will simply open an separate office in Dublin or Frankfurt. Because bankers, brokers and hedge funds will ALWAYS like Amazon find a way to beat whatever system is in place.

The Four Rights is Freedoom of Movement of People, Capital, Goods, Services.

For me the ONLY "right" that is relevant to me, that I can actually enjoy is that of Free Movement of People, my E111 Health Card, to have my State Pension increased if I live in the EU and the right if outside the EU to seeks assistance at ANY EU State's Embassy or Consulate.

The other three? Free Movement of Capital, Goods and Services? She's trying to ditch true free movement of goods with her electronic tariff plan. So the ones that Theresa May wants to cherry pick? Capital and Services? They effectively benefit bankers, brokers and hedge funds.

Free Movement of People and Goods benefit the small people. Free Movement of Capital and Services benefits bankers, brokers, hedge funds. We're not seeing a "People's Deal" in the Chequers White Paper but charter for cherry picking for bankers, brokers and hedge funds.

Be very certain that "we" are NOT "all in this together" and that "we" the common folk, like the fishermen, we will soon discover we are to be thrown under the bus if Chequers were to be accepted by the EU.

And I've not even mentioned the European Firearms Pass.
 
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timbrayford

Well-Known Member
At least "no deal" will save the taxpayers £ 39 Billion, no more European Court, no more edicts handed down from unelected civil servants. Unfortunately Mrs May has come up with a "Remain" deal dressed up as "Brexit".
 

enfieldspares

Well-Known Member
Problem is that the Referendum was worded to say the the UK would leave the EU. Norway isn't in the EU, Switzerland isn't in the EU, Canada isn't in the EU the USA isn't in the EU.

So which degree of not being in the EU qualifies as having left the EU and therefore not being in the EU? In strict terms any of the four models as per the four nations above would all satisfy the strict words of what was voted for.

But bear this tale in mind from thirty years ago.

Years ago in the early 1990s I dated the daughter of the Zambian High Commissioner in London. So black African. Before that he had been Zambian Ambassador to Italy and before that to South Africa. During the full apartheid era. I asked if it affected her. As she lived there and went to school there with her father and mother during that four year posting.

Her reply thirty years ago I will always remember. It will hold true whatever form of Brexit we end up with. "Why should it have? Those things don't apply to our class of people. They are not for us. They are for everybody else."

So bear THIS in mind. No matter its effect on ME or YOU whatever we get Theresa May will still be able to freely go walking in Italy. And Lord Lawson will still remain freely residing in France.

And Rees Mogg will move his hedge fund to Dublin. All in this together? You're having a laugh!

Orwell. Animal Farm. There's always some animals that will always think themselves entitled to be more equal than others...or as the lovely Patience said so precisely that Summer day out in Kenwood Park. I still remember it. "Those things don't apply to our class of people."
 
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enfieldspares

Well-Known Member
No more edicts handed down from unelected civil servants..

Although obviously not those edicts from unelected civil servants or those edicts (from the Chief Constable of Lincolnshire) regarding Doctor's fees for FACs, nor the edicts banning mail order knife sales, nor the edicts banning .50" calibre rifles.

Nor the in 1967 the edicts introducing Shot Gun Certificates, nor even older edicts imposing 12 ft/lbs air gun limits, nor the more recent edicts in 1988 raising multi shot shot guns to s1, nor the last edicts in 1997 banning handguns. Not those edicts. Just other edicts then?

For a moment you worried me as I thought that leaving the EU might end the the ability of unelected Home Office civil servants (and the Chief Constable of Lincolnshire) to continue to do that.

Thank goodness it won't.
 
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JAYB

Administrator
Site Staff
I dread to think how this thread will progress, but please be under no illusion the moment it turns nasty, if it does, it will be closed.

John
 

enfieldspares

Well-Known Member
Probably for the best too. Brexit will be what it'll be. Anything else is just trying to read the entrails like the caveman in another's very apt posting. It'll be what it'll be.
 
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tusker

Well-Known Member
For what it is worth I voted to remain as no one could tell me what voting to leave would entail. Lots of my friends who noisily voted leave and, shoock their heads at me when I said remain, are now very quite and if you mention Brexit there is a lot of looking down and shrugging of shoulders and changing of subject.
Tusker
 

reloader54

Well-Known Member
For what it is worth I voted to remain as no one could tell me what voting to leave would entail. Lots of my friends who noisily voted leave and, shoock their heads at me when I said remain, are now very quite and if you mention Brexit there is a lot of looking down and shrugging of shoulders and changing of subject.
Tusker

with respect plenty of leavers voted that way because they had years of knowing exactly what to expect, they saw leaving as an end to it.
as has been said often enough both sides were desperate to con [vince] the voters, the rich and powerful have much to lose and fight for it they will, mark my words this will end badly.


not forgetting all those years ago, some who were actually around then were told "it's just a trade agreement" as time went by it clearly became much more than that, much adding to it's demise it seems in some quarters.
 
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slider

Well-Known Member
Seems to me Theresa May is like the person that leaves the syndicate but still expects to be able to turn up and enjoy the shooting but accept no obligation to turn up on the work days or beat on the Beaters' Day. All the benefits but with no obligations.

I think that's what a lot of "leavers" expected.

While I am not a Tory lover that have been hander a poisoned chalice with trying to get a deal that acceptable to the (near) 50% that voted for each camp.
 

Tim.243

Well-Known Member
I dread to think how this thread will progress, but please be under no illusion the moment it turns nasty, if it does, it will be closed.

John

I have been seeing to my poults which is far more productive....Close it before we all get a headache..

:locked:

Tim.243
 

caorach

Well-Known Member
The EU are in the past, whether you like that or not. To be honest I'm surprised that there is going to be an EU left for us to leave as I thought it might crumble before we even had time to get out but I've been to the ECHR and I've watched them take our rights away and now having seen how the EU has behaved over our departure I think that in 100 years time we may well look back on this and consider that we were lucky to get out when we did. All the previous artificial European alliances have ended with heavy artillery. Either way we are getting out.

In one sense "the deal" doesn't matter as we will now regain democratic control over the details of this deal once we leave - so if I don't like it I can lobby my MP to get it changed and while I can do that with the current deal while we are "in" my MP and MSP have no control over it. Any deal is basically a starting point as we need to be thinking longer term as that is how money thinks. There has been no massive move of money out of the UK, sure there have been some changes with some leaving and some coming but on balance they'd have happened anyhow, and that tells us a lot. More importantly we need to be thinking longer term for freedom, I've been right in there in the workings of EU freedoms and there aren't any, you are completely at the beck and call of a rich boys club centered around people like Tony Blair. My "leave" vote was entirely for reasons of freedom whereas most of the current media debate centres on short term financial, political and personal gain, or loss, and I suspect in the longer term the freedom being "out" buys us is worth some "investment" in the short and medium term. I don't want to live on a police state where we suddenly find Tony Blair is head of "Thought Enforcement Policy" or similar, and if necessary I'm willing to pay for that.

However nothing I've said above really matters because the one, and only, important deal is the one we will do with the USA. To be honest I wouldn't even be bothering to talk to the EU, I'd be in America sorting out the future of my country rather than the past. The USA have a rapidly expanding economy and they have just completely stiffed the EU with the "trade tariff" ploy where the EU are now going to have to start buying petroleum products from the USA reducing the Russian strategic influence in Europe and forcing the EU into a position of dependence on the USA. We need to cosy up to the USA, start fracking as quickly as we can, and align our policies with the USA creating jobs for working people and ignoring spurious regulation in favour of moving our society and economy forwards.

Then there is the Commonwealth of Nations: 2,400,000,000+ people and 53 nations, many developing economically very quickly indeed. Just as the UK didn't stand alone against Germany in the last war, no matter what the propaganda might have said, so we don't stand alone outside the EU and we have access to one of the world's biggest markets. Again we need to move on from the short term, inward looking, self centered and selfish media virtue-signaling and get on with building freedom and operating in one of the largest markets on earth.
 

Edinburgh Rifles

Well-Known Member
Regardless of your in/out position
anyone under any illusion that any of the money formerly paid into the EU will somehow be available to the treasury to spend on any infrastructure or services in the U.K. post leave is utterly deluded.

By the time the lawyers, consultancies, lobbying groups and political strategists have gone through Westminster like a dose of cholera, advising, rewording polices, laws, contracts and international agreements they will have burned more cash than we ever paid to be in the EU.

changes like this NEVER save money.

somebody just gets a bigger boat
 

slider

Well-Known Member
Regardless of your in/out position
anyone under any illusion that any of the money formerly paid into the EU will somehow be available to the treasury to spend on any infrastructure or services in the U.K. post leave is utterly deluded.

By the time the lawyers, consultancies, lobbying groups and political strategists have gone through Westminster like a dose of cholera, advising, rewording polices, laws, contracts and international agreements they will have burned more cash than we ever paid to be in the EU.

changes like this NEVER save money.

somebody just gets a bigger boat


This
 

enfieldspares

Well-Known Member
Then there is the Commonwealth of Nations: 2,400,000,000+ people and 53 nations, many developing economically very quickly indeed

Won't happen because they will want Free Movement. Theresa May and Johnson tried it with India post the Referendum. They were politely told that if the UK wanted trade with India that India would now want from us an easing of visa restrictions on its nationals to come and work in the UK in return. Neither May, nor Johnson would countenance it so were told "on your bike".

It's likely that the other Commonwealth nations will put the same question. Certainly from what I was told by a senior source the last time I was up at the Nigerian Embassy in Paris that is what they would demand in return for free trade. Australia similarly as has been said publicly would also demand the same. Besides in most of the African Commonwealth countries China has all the infrastructure deals. They can usually undercut us on price and certainly in any case offer the "dash" or "additional consideration" that we can't.

Kenya, Nigeria in West or East Africa the new railways, the new roads are all Chinese contractors. The cinema complex Kada Plaza in Benin City has the emergency exit illuminated signs in Chinese and English. The Chinese built it. Elsewhere in Africa they are even buying up land to create Chinese owned and run farms. So that ship...serious free trade with the Commonwealth...sailed when Ted Heath took us into the EU in the 1970s.
 
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