Statistics: Firearm and shotgun certificates, April 2024 to March 2025

3% decrease in general on license holders, that's not a non-negligible drop over a single year...
 
do wish they would not use the word, weapons.

then

Lowest number of certificate holders since comparable records began​

High numbers of firearm and shotgun certificates refused​

Highest numbers of firearm certificates revoked since comparable records began​

 
Screenshot 2025-06-19 125825.webp
This is an awful chart, poorly laid out and misleading in many ways but highlights an interesting stat
there are approx 12,500 14-17 year old Cert holders (possibly as many is 18,000 due to rounding) across E&W which is more than I'd have expected and fair play to them

a random person is half as likely to be a cert holder if they are 18-34 relative to across the population as a whole and almost twice as average as likely if they are over 50 - seems to tally with what I've seen except if anything I'm surprised it is as high in the under 35s


also noticed the number of cert (either type) holders is almost exactly 1% of the E&W population so if you have a cert you are one in a hundred
 
Next year’s statistics will likely show a big drop in “firearms” once moderators are taken off ticket - although this will make for much more comparable figures as most other countries don’t count them
 
Next year’s statistics will likely show a big drop in “firearms” once moderators are taken off ticket - although this will make for much more comparable figures as most other countries don’t count them
Seems like an optimistic timescale, nice if it happens
 
Verrry interesting.

The trends these figures show is, I suspect what most people think is happening. Which is basically a reduction of certificate holders, but not a catastrophic one and a higher level of refusals and revocations being maintained.
 
Next year’s statistics will likely show a big drop in “firearms” once moderators are taken off ticket - although this will make for much more comparable figures as most other countries don’t count them
I'm afraid this is guesswork as it's wrong. It comes up every year TBF. The raw data in the attached table is what the Home Office work with (files downloadable from the link as a punishment). I think the phrase 'data accessible in Open Format' is a wry joke from the mandarins.:cool:

Moderators aren't classed as Firearms in the 'weapons' figures. They've been excluded from them since NFLMS began 10 years ago.

 

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BASC comment:

BASC warns that these figures reflect more than just demographic change; they are a direct consequence of a fractured and inefficient licensing system that is deterring lawful participation and putting livelihoods at risk.

BASC is calling for a single, efficient, cost-effective, and robust system of firearms licensing which protects public safety while delivering high-quality service to the shooting community. This must include statutory obligations for all parties in the licensing process, including GPs, whose participation is voluntary, and the creation of a dedicated national licensing body to replace the disparate processes currently administered by 43 separate police forces.

More reaction below:

 
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