So vaccinating those who are vulnerable and leaving those who can almost certainly deal with it naturally to do so would likely show similar results at far less cost? Hmm... Then there's Freeforester's point above. You can't help but wonder why a perfectly serviceable and proven product has all but vanished whilst the new wonder vaccine has flourished?
Don't get me wrong, I don't doubt for a second that what we're facing is a very serious threat. But where there's a dollar to be made, someone will be in on it. When one of your key advisers has multiple hundreds of thousands of pounds worth of shares in a vaccine company can you truly trust him to be 100% unbiased? Lets be perfectly honest here - I wouldn't trust myself to do that, let alone anyone else. Especially when at the very start he said that this would only be an issue for the vulnerable. He wasn't daft back then but he's even less daft now. He knows which side his bread's buttered, they all do.
Lets be totally clear about this. COVID, it's continuation or even it's treatment does not benefit the big pharma companies.
In theory, I'm the one with dollars to be made here. I have shares in AstraZeneca and Pfizer. Both are down over their January 2020 values. COVID has cost them, as the companies providing the vaccines, roughly 10% of their value in just over a year. To put that into perspective, COVID has knocked $20 billion off the value of Pfizer. It's knocked £10bn off the value of AstraZeneca (although the vaccine news did briefly provide some significant gains mid year when coupled with a route out of COVID.) Based on past performance it's also stolen them another 3-10% in potential value because that's what they normally gain per year under normal conditions.
Big pharma, just the same as every other industry wants COVID out the way so they can get people back to work, eliminate costly restrictions, restart rolling out annual vaccinations, and get their sales teams pushing their infinitey more profitable end of life products to hospitals, all of which provide a reliable, long term income stream. Ideally they'd like to maintain their main, immediate and most profitable market of frail, infirm, 70+ year olds in first world countries alive in the process, something which COVID is probably not helping any.
THe COVID vaccines do help them recover some of the massive profit impact that COVID has caused, but trust me, the execs at AZN are not thinking 'Well, lets keep covid about as long as possible so we can continue to rake in them vaccination dollars' and the quarterly earnings calls are bearing this out, not to mention the share price.
Plus of course, the same vested interests with millions of AZN stock probably also have millions of stock in BP (down 40%), or FTSE tracker funds (down 10%) or maybe airlines, retail or events management companies (absolute carnage). The elimination of COVID is almost certainly going to generate far more in gains for those with vested interests in large UK or Global companies (i.e the pool of government advisers and special interest groups defining COVID response) than it's prolongation can generate from any one single company.
It makes a good soundbite. 'Corporate fatcats profiting off the deaths of thousands and working to hide effective treatments'. Provokes outrage, makes sense at first glance. But ultimately? Bollocks.
To your other point though, I'm also uncertain what difference in benefit there is between vaccine derived immunity versus naturally derived immunity. To my knowledge they're similar mechanisms, similar responses and similar methods of immunological memory. Also based on past knowledge of vaccines, its generally the case that naurally acquired immunity is, if anythig, marginally better than vaccine induced immunity because the body 'sees' the true wild type threat in terms of protein conformation and epitopes versus the 'mimic' version presented in the vaccine. That said, there are some advantages to getting vaccinated, even as a massively low risk person (I'm 25, I'm still gonna get it).
These are:
- Risk reduction - if you acquire natural immunity by contracting COVID, there's a risk, albeit a very, very small one that the virus might do you in or have long term adverse influence on quality of life. A low risk, but you'd feel pretty stupid if you did it, rolled snake eyes 10 times in a row and snuffed it. Plus it seems a strange hill to (perhaps literally) die on?
- Certainty - If you opt for naturally immunity, how can you be certain you've actually got it? As you note, you're low risk for COVID, so I doubt you're getting tested for it regularly. Maybe you've seen Wt virus already, maybe you haven't. You probably wouldn't exhibit major symptoms either way, so perhaps those couple of days feeling under the weather over Christmas was COVID. Or was it just a cold? Maybe you're immune and quite entitled to visit Granny in her care home or visit Europe, maybe you're not. At least if you get the vaccine it eliminates that uncertainty.
- Short term reduction in spread - Long term, if you get COVID, recover and then have immunity, you have the same, low infection risk as those vaccinated. Same response after all. But what about in the meantime? As I said above, you'll only know if you're actually immune if you get tested for COVID antibodies, it throws a positive and it's not a false positive. Or of course, if you get the vaccine. At least if you get vaccinated, you know that you're immediately contributing to herd immunity and whilst you may still be able to spread the virus, the overall population is less permissive to that spread because it's a lot quicker to provide vaccinations to everyone than to faff about waiting weeks or months with everyone hiding inside for you and every other 18-50 year old to eventually see the Wt variant, fight it off an get your immunity that way.
- Freedom - I can certainly forsee a future where certain activities will require proof of vaccination. I'm idealogically opposed to this, but a lot of the country isn't, and this is a democracy. Vaccine passports for travel (already proposed by the US), vaccine passports to work in the office (been polled by the FT last week with 70%+ approval from employers), vaccine passport for clubs, sport events and other mass gatherings (already being used in Europe in conjunction with rapid covid testing). You may derive little direct beneft from a vaccine, especially if you really do have immunity from Wt virus exposure, but the indirect benenfts in being able to live your life as you wish, travelling and working freely, surely have benefits in and of themselves?