But it certainly represents a long term consumer trend doesn't it!
It might, but not certainly. It certainly represents a middleman trend.
There are two issues being studiously ignored in all this.
One is that the commercial market for game is only a minority of game shot.
The second is that the market for shot game is not a typical market where the producer is producing the product only to supply market demand. Game sold into the food chain is a by product. The dead game exists anyway and will continue to exist in similar quantities. Consequently, the tactic being used of having the middleman force the market to change is flawed because the usual laws of supply and demand don't function here.
The supply of dead game birds to the commercial market is a consequence of the demand to shoot them on commercial shoots. The old saying applies. For commercial shoots' game birds, the value is in the shooting. £45 for the shot, maybe as much as £1 for the bird. If a dealer doesn't want to buy the birds any more, wants to make silly stipulations which compromise the quality of the shooting and the welfare of birds, or where the gun must use ammunition which costs more than the value of the bird, then to a large extent the dealer will be left out. The commercial food chain is virtually worthless to the producer. Of much greater importance is whether the individuals supplying 99% of the income want to risk damaging their guns, or injuring more birds, for the sake of somebody else receiving 50p a bird or not.
If the middleman wants a change of behaviour, they must offer prices which incentivise it. Game dealers offer about 1% of the income of a commercial shoot. Nobody goes on a commercial shoot because they're interested in paying a grand a day to take part in supplying a food chain with a product they don't value.
The Deer Act means that all venison is also a by-product, and therefore supply also ought to be independent of demand. For venison, the meat value is a higher percentage, and using non-lead ammunition makes more sense and has less downside. Odd thing is that most venison I've seen offered in supermarkets is farmed or imported. I don't think that's because there isn't enough copper-shot venison being supplied to the market.
The whole thing is a red herring. There will never be a large-scale valuable functioning market for UK shot game. The quantity is insignificant and the demand virtually absent even at that level.