Is the car industry on its uppers?

Bavarianbrit

Well-Known Member
I was sent this article this morning from my son in law. I had been over 50 years in this branch and it surprised me the figures reported. German link then in German then below google translated.


Britische Autoproduktion auf dem Niveau von 1956: Chipknappheit und Lockdown

Stand: 27.01.2022 10:23 Uhr

2021 wird die britische Autoindustrie weniger Fahrzeuge produziert haben als in den 65 Jahren zuvor. Auch eine Werksschließung bereitet der Branche neben dem Mangel an Chips und den Folgen der Pandemie Probleme.

Im vergangenen Jahr erreichte die Zahl der im Vereinigten Königreich hergestellten Autos den niedrigsten Stand seit 1956. Im Jahr 2021 wurden im Vereinigten Königreich laut Branchenverband SMMT nur 859.575 Fahrzeuge produziert. Gegenüber dem ersten Corona-Jahr 2020 waren dies noch einmal 6,7 Prozent weniger. Im Dezember lag die Produktion 12,7 Prozent unter dem Vorjahreswert.

Mike Hawes, Vorstandsvorsitzender der Confederation of British Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and Dealers (SMMT), sagte: „2021 war ein weiteres unglaublich schwieriges Jahr für die britische Automobilherstellung – eines der schlimmsten seit dem Zweiten Weltkrieg.“

Letztes Jahr sah sich die Branche zahlreichen Herausforderungen gegenüber, darunter ein weltweiter Chip-Mangel und ein Mangel an Halbleitern. Weil wichtige Vorprodukte fehlten, mussten Fabriken die Produktion drosseln oder gar einstellen. Im Falle einer Corona-Infektion fehlte es auch an Arbeitskräften, die sich selbst isolieren mussten. Autohäuser waren 2021 wegen strenger Kontakt- und Ausgangsbeschränkungen lange geschlossen.

Fabrikschließung verursacht Einbruch

Es gibt Gründe für das „erbärmliche Jahr“, wie es die SMMT ausdrückte, auch wenn die Corona-Pandemie nicht dazu gehört. Ein Viertel des Rückgangs ist auf die Schließung des Honda-Werks in Swindon westlich von London zurückzuführen. Letzten Sommer wurde die Fabrik geschlossen. Nachdem Großbritannien 2016 für den Austritt aus der Europäischen Union gestimmt hatte und sich die EU und Japan 2017 auf zollfreie Autoimporte geeinigt hatten, kam das Ende.

Die britische Wirtschaft hingegen hat sich größtenteils von der Corona-Krise erholt, wobei diе im November wieder auf das Niveau vor der Pandemie zurückgekehrt ist.

Optimismus in der Branche

Der Branchenverband blickt dennoch optimistisch in die Zukunft. Die Investitionen im Jahr 2021 waren mit 4,9 Milliarden Pfund deutlich höher als in den Vorjahren. Das Handelsabkommen mit der EU nach dem Brexit werde trotz einiger neuer bürokratischer Hürden für Entlastung sorgen, sagte Verbandschef Hawes. Er war auch zuversichtlich, dass die Chipknappheit bald behoben sein würde. Es wird erwartet, dass 2022 wieder mehr als eine Million Fahrzeuge in Großbritannien produziert werden.

Mehr als ein Viertel der 2021 zugelassenen Autos hatte einen alternativen Antrieb, und jedes zwölfte Fahrzeug war laut britischer Industrie rein batteriebetrieben. Es ist eine Steigerung von 72 Prozent. Ab 2030 will die britische Regierung den Verkauf neuer Verbrennungsmotoren verbieten. Hohe und steigende Energiepreise hingegen bleiben laut Hawes eine Bedrohung.





British car production at 1956 levels: chip shortage and lockdown

Status: 27/01/2022 10:23 a.m

In 2021, the UK auto industry will have produced fewer vehicles than in any of the previous 65 years. A plant closure also caused problems for the industry, in addition to the lack of chips and the consequences of the pandemic.

Last year, the number of cars manufactured in the UK hit its lowest level since 1956. In 2021, just 859,575 vehicles were produced in the UK, according to industry body SMMT. Compared to the first Corona year 2020, this was another 6.7 percent less. In December 2021, production was 12.7 percent below the previous year's figure.

Mike Hawes, Chief Executive of the Confederation of British Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and Dealers (SMMT), said: "2021 was another incredibly difficult year for British car manufacturing - one of the worst since the Second World War."

Last year, the industry faced numerous challenges, including a global chip shortage and semiconductor shortage. Because important preliminary products were missing, factories had to reduce or even stop production. In the event of corona infections there was also a lack of workers who had to isolate themselves. Car dealerships were closed for a long time in 2021 due to strict contact and exit restrictions.

Factory closure causes burglary

There are reasons for the "miserable year," as the SMMT put it, even if the coronavirus pandemic isn't one of them. A quarter of the drop is due to the closure of Honda's Swindon plant, west of London. The factory closed last summer. After Britain voted to leave the European Union in 2016 and the EU and Japan agreed on duty-free car imports in 2017, the end came.

The British economy, on the other hand, has largely recovered from the coronavirus crisis, with November returning to pre-pandemic levels.

optimism in the industry

The industry association is nevertheless optimistic about the future. Investments in 2021 were significantly higher than previous years at £4.9 billion. The trade agreement with the EU after Brexit will provide relief despite some new bureaucratic hurdles, said association boss Hawes. He was also confident that the chip shortage would be resolved soon. It is expected that more than a million vehicles will be produced in the UK again in 2022.
 
Was just typing how the chip shortage has had a big knock on effect on the secondhand car market but Paul has illustrated the point perfectly.
 
There have been temporary closers of car and lorry factory's here in Sweden due to a lack of parts. A company has bought a million sq mtr plot in our kommun to build a battery factory on that will need a 3000 strong work force to man it.
 
Petrol and diesel are at an all time high price here in Ireland and will be increasing again soon, the push towards hybrid/electric is in full motion.
 
Lots of legacy car companies will either go bust or have to merge
JLR and BMW are both on pretty sticky wickets
The electric car revolution (which is coming faster than few expected) will drive those legacy manufacturers out of business because they have been unwilling to accept the reality of the situation and have made little or no effort to move their products to electric power
The biggest problem for legacy automakers moving to EVs is their lack of in house battery production capacity
All the main battery manufacturers are Chinese and most batteries are made in China - and Chinese EV makers (of which there are many) tend to get priority in the battery supply chain.

Cheers

Bruce
 
Some used cars are more expensive than the new one. Harry Metcalf gave a prime example when reviewing a new Land Rover Defender.
 
The largest car manufacturers in the world, by far, are Toyota and VAG (virtually equal).

As the world bounces back/learns to live with the current coronavirus, pent up demand for new vehicles is stressing every aspect of the supply chain. Very few during the past couple of years were prepared to commit to buying something new, and those who are also look to the future, where EVs are coming, and the longer you delay the better the options become.

Whilst some companies still look to the UK for design, but not necessarily production, others do not. Brexit uncertainties have not helped, though IMO Germany has taken every step to protect its own, and exerted undue influence over the EU to try to make things as difficult as possible for the UK.

It is a complex global business. But still in play, as ever.

As the slowdown in demand hit, worldwide, foreign companies naturally re-focussed their manufacturing in ways favouring and protecting their home countries and export markets with best prospects. Whilst also considering their plans, capabilities, technology partnerships and so on, for EV development. Where Europe, in the wider sense, is leading the way, less so in other parts of the World.

Battery manufacturing is also a global issue, with "Gigafactories" set up fairly locally to make them from raw materials (yes, a lot of materials coming from China but also many other parts of the world, and rapidly evolving).

Tesla for example has been scouting out the UK to build one here, to add to the new one in Berlin, alongside the new Tesla factory, but as always with car manufacturing, government grants/loans/tax status etc. are all part of the consideration. As must have been the case in China, where Tesla is also doing well.

UK govt. recently injected some money into a prospective one to be built at Blyth by BritishVolt thereby potentially encouraging private investment. We'll see where that one goes, what they actually have to offer, who might be their future customers, hopefully somewhere.

Britishvolt - Accelerating the transition to a zero-carbon future

Nissan does (or did ?) make batteries for the Leaf at Sunderland, though I think they are looking to Envision Group (Shanghai based) to modernise and expand it into a Gigafactory to meet their needs.

Nissan, AESC to Build $460 Million Car-Battery Plant in Japan

AFAIK VAG continues to develop its own battery technology and manufacturing processes.

Other countries' car makers are also progressing rapidly, South Korea being a good example.
 
The largest car manufacturers in the world, by far, are Toyota and VAG (virtually equal).

As the world bounces back/learns to live with the current coronavirus, pent up demand for new vehicles is stressing every aspect of the supply chain. Very few during the past couple of years were prepared to commit to buying something new, and those who are also look to the future, where EVs are coming, and the longer you delay the better the options become.

Whilst some companies still look to the UK for design, but not necessarily production, others do not. Brexit uncertainties have not helped, though IMO Germany has taken every step to protect its own, and exerted undue influence over the EU to try to make things as difficult as possible for the UK.

It is a complex global business. But still in play, as ever.

As the slowdown in demand hit, worldwide, foreign companies naturally re-focussed their manufacturing in ways favouring and protecting their home countries and export markets with best prospects. Whilst also considering their plans, capabilities, technology partnerships and so on, for EV development. Where Europe, in the wider sense, is leading the way, less so in other parts of the World.

Battery manufacturing is also a global issue, with "Gigafactories" set up fairly locally to make them from raw materials (yes, a lot of materials coming from China but also many other parts of the world, and rapidly evolving).

Tesla for example has been scouting out the UK to build one here, to add to the new one in Berlin, alongside the new Tesla factory, but as always with car manufacturing, government grants/loans/tax status etc. are all part of the consideration. As must have been the case in China, where Tesla is also doing well.

UK govt. recently injected some money into a prospective one to be built at Blyth by BritishVolt thereby potentially encouraging private investment. We'll see where that one goes, what they actually have to offer, who might be their future customers, hopefully somewhere.

Britishvolt - Accelerating the transition to a zero-carbon future

Nissan does (or did ?) make batteries for the Leaf at Sunderland, though I think they are looking to Envision Group (Shanghai based) to modernise and expand it into a Gigafactory to meet their needs.

Nissan, AESC to Build $460 Million Car-Battery Plant in Japan

AFAIK VAG continues to develop its own battery technology and manufacturing processes.

Other countries' car makers are also progressing rapidly, South Korea being a good example.
AFAIK it was a Japanese firm with a small UK footprint who supplied the batteries.
I know the bloke that runs it in Washington
 
AFAIK it was a Japanese firm with a small UK footprint who supplied the batteries.
I know the bloke that runs it in Washington
It's pretty well explained in the Bloomberg article that I posted (August 2021).

I'll quote below, with my emphasis, for those who may not be able to access Bloomberg.

Last month, Nissan and Envision AESC unveiled plans to create a 1-billion-pound ($1.4 billion) EV-manufacturing hub in Britain. Automakers globally have struck several deals this year to add battery-manufacturing capacity as they seek to shift away from gasoline-burning engines. Ford Motor Co. and South Korea’s SK Innovation Co. are building electric-vehicle batteries at two factories in the U.S., while Volkswagen AG has committed $29 billion to challenge Tesla Inc.

Why Building an Electric Car Is So Expensive, For Now: QuickTake

AESC used to be part of Nissan until 2018, when the Japanese automaker sold a majority stake in the electric-car battery business to Envision Group, a Shanghai-based sustainable-energy company. Nissan still owns 20% of AESC.Azusa Momose, a spokeswoman for Nissan, declined to comment on the plans but added: “We are not able to directly comment on Envision AESC’s plant in Ibaraki prefecture, but they are one of our key partners, as they are the battery supplier for Leaf vehicles for over 10 years and are planning to build a new battery plant in the U.K. adjacent to the Sunderland plant.”

However as Yokohama-based Nissan seeks to keep closer tabs on battery development and ensure access to the critical EV component, it’s now exploring ways to increase its stake or deepen its alliance with Envision AESC, a person with knowledge of the matter said.

Originally called Automotive Energy Supply Corp., the car-battery manufacturer was created in 2007 as a joint venture between Nissan and NEC Corp. as Nissan prepared to introduce the Leaf, which once commanded a sales lead before Tesla’s ascendancy.

Makoto Uchida, Nissan’s chief executive officer, said in a Bloomberg Television interview last month that the U.K. project was just the “start in our electrification strategy.” Nissan is planning to roll out a new EV called Ariya, although the flagship SUV’s debut was pushed back to the end of this year from an originally planned rollout of “mid-2021.” In an interview with Bloomberg Television on Tuesday, the CEO said he’s confident Nissan will keep up profits despite headwinds.

Nissan Motor CEO Makoto Uchida Interview
Makoto Uchida at the company's headquarters in Yokohama.Photographer: Akio Kon/Bloomberg
Read more: Nissan Delays Release of Flagship Electric Car Amid Chip Crunch

Envision Group is also expanding its own battery business, announcing plans to spend as much as 2 billion euros ($2.4 billion) on a plant in northern France to power EVs made by Renault SA, Nissan’s partner in a global automaking alliance with Mitsubishi Motors Corp.
 
All the main battery manufacturers are Chinese and most batteries are made in China
I think not. Tesla teamed with Panasonic, Nissan with NEC, then there are the likes of Sony, Samsung, etc. Tesla I think now have considerable in-house expertise, but are still strongly affiliated with Panasonic.

Batteries will be manufactured in factories to supply their market and production needs, wherever that might be globally. Since they are such a large part of an EV, both by weight, and cost, control of their production, the raw materials required, supply, performance and ongoing development is critical to a car manufacturer's strategy.

As usual, look to Tesla for a lead.

Those lesser ones who haven't grasped this, or simply don't know how, will continue to be dependent on others to supply, develop etc. but that's never a good position to be in. I would agree that the likes of JLR, even BMW, are not well placed. Maybe nor Mercedes-Benz. Their strategy seems unconvincing, talking about 2030 etc. Mercedes-Benz Strategy Update: electric drive | Mercedes-Benz Group

The old days of ICE engine plants, powertrains, etc. are rapidly retreating. Batteries, electric powertrains, electronic integration, furhter efficiency gains, recharging infrastructure, self-driving etc. are where future development lies. And a world where driving and owning massive luxury vehicles becomes less of a status symbol or aspiration, more slightly ridiculous.
 
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