Just before I left Rolls Royce motors in 2018 I saw a proposal for the future changeover to EVs.
.............. and the new RR EV runs on steel rails 4ft 8 and a half inches apart.
The future is electric
- Thread starter steve sxs
- Start date
.............. and the new RR EV runs on steel rails 4ft 8 and a half inches apart.
Bavarianbrit
Well-Known Member
We may have the most capable scientists but, we had the most capable engineers in the world that all IMO changed in the 1970s with the collapse of company training and funding, what product is UK engineering world class these days? A genuine question and I am happy to be proved wrong.
I am not sure the two are quite so simply linked...a lack of funding (which I agree, everything is owned / funded by overseas money) does not mean a lack of skills and abilities. I think my point aligns with your question - we should be investing in these skills and making use of the capabilities in the UK in order to become world leaders once again.
In a previous role I worked at RR - no one in the world can compete with the RR technologies with a single crystal fan blade - but sadly that is the only answer that comes to mind from my experience where we remain world leading - I wish there were a lot more.
This is what worries me most, in fact I'll go further, and say frightens me. We're talking barely tested technology that's not been around long enough to really have its strengths and weaknesses become apparent and forcing it onto people over a staggeringly short timescale in areas that impact in almost every way on many fundamental aspects of our daily lives and whole way of living. Our whole society and way of life, - eg domestic heating / cooking; transport; food production / role of the countryside - is being changed by political fiat not over a generation but a decade. The carbon reduction strategy is moreover based on 'givens' that Mad Vlad's invasion has overnight turned on their heads. Just look at the likely effects on food availability and production costs alone.
The car industry has been told it can't sell ICE vehicles from 2030, some 10 years from the legal / regulatory promulgations, and less than 8 years from now. Based on 2021 sales, that's 93% of vehicle sales have to switch to the technology of the 7% - yes, I know that since 'hybrids' have been given another five years lifetime grace, it's not so black and white, but even so it's an unprecedented forced technology change on a major and mature industry and I can't think of a historic precedent that involved such a short timescale. It's a bit like in the 1920s if all governments had announced that heavier than air flying machines were to be banned and that manned flight would be entirely by airships, these being the 'coming technology' according to much received wisdom of the day. It took 10-20 years to find that airships didn't work nearly as well as their proponents believed. (There are still those around today who never lost faith and say we took a wrong turning here.) It took 30, 40 years - and the massively forced and accelerated R&D of WW2 - to take aircraft technology to the beginning of the era of widespread long-distance passenger air travel. Moreover, it's not a single industry and technology that has these legally enforced changes shoved onto it - it involves massive infrastructure changes to a sector already struggling to keep its head above water, electricity generation and supply, and that moreover is being told will have to entirely take over the huge domestic cooking & heating, and industrial power jobs that gas is currently doing - again in an incredibly short timescale.
So it's now autumn 2009, and things haven't worked out quite as hoped or planned - the vehicle industry has changed over pretty well, owners of increasingly elderly ICE vehicles (like me) are having onerous additional taxation dumped on them to encourage switching, new EV models abound and show many improvements over their 2022 predecessors, but maybe not as much as was predicted and is needed. BUT there is a global shortage of batteries OR there is a global shortage of microchips OR the huge electricity industry infrastructure changes are taking twice, three-times, four times (10 times?) as long as the year 2000 optimists / eco zealots predicted looking through their batteries of rose-tinted lenses. What then? Postponing the switchover for five, ten years won't work because the vehicle industry has switched and you don't reverse that sort of fundamental change overnight - and who in industry would anyway with it being a short-term reprieve only? The ripples and disruption across society will be massive making Covid working from home edicts and changes to behaviours look minor.
There is already one small straw in the wind - the postponement of the introduction of the Greater Manchester Clean Air Zone, a central government forced change. The CAZ applies only to vans, L&HGVs, buses, taxis too I think and would put a hefty charge for each and every 'incursion' off the M6 / M60 / M62 into the huge zone area (including even Diggle Ranges well out in the countryside). The latest Euro- whatever emission class vehicles are exempt from the charge, BUT even assuming every plumber / builder / bus & taxi operator / road haulier who needs to move such vehicles in and out of the CAZ is able and willing to upgrade and can afford to sell off existing but quite serviceable vehicles and replace them with the latest emissions spec models - and somebody, ie their customers, has to ultimately foot this bill irrespective - it turns out that in the timescale central government mandated, there is no chance of all or even a minority of operators being able to source compliant vehicles. In most cases, waiting lists start at a year, and there aren't even any forecast availability dates at all for some. Covid disruption to the commercial vehicle manufacturing industry, we're told. Short-term, soon sorted. Really? Anyone who believes this, will they please PM me and I'll make them a really attractive price on Tower Bridge or York Minster.
An interesting piece on the back page of today's Telegraph business section headlined 'Car Makers risk running out of drivers who can afford electric'.
Still too expensive to tempt many drivers says Autotrader. It says average new EV prices are still 37% dearer than equivalent petrol.
Used EVs cost £8,000 more than comparable petrol and diesel.
Lat year only 3 EVs had a new price under £20,000 compared to 11 the previous year.
Demographic profile of Autotrader searchers for EVs is 'predominately [by] older, richer people living in affluent parts of the country, a trend at odds with the 'normal' profile of early technology adopters who tend to be young and metropolitan'.
Quote from Autotrader spokesperson Erin Baker: 'I am concerned that we are in a bit of a bubble at the moment. There are enough wealthy motorists out there to drive sales for now, but if EVs don't become more affordable soon, we will, to put it bluntly run out of rich people and the mass adoption that the Government is banking on will not materialise.'
February EV sales were 18% of February totals says the SMMT, double last year but down from 26% in December.
Price apart, I'd love to see a breakdown of the size and weight of EVs and hybrids being sold. Based on a small sample - newspaper road test report numbers and what I see in supermarket car parks, I don't see small, light new EVs crowding the roads. They're predominately mid to large size, heavy, heavily carbon consuming models (in their manufacture) and needing enough power to propel 1-2 tonnes of vehicle on big, wide friction-generating tyres. The only place I see small EVs which I'd naively thought would be the carbon-reducing future is on trips to the North-East passing Nissan's Sunderland plant where I presume most of the Leafs (Leaves?) I see on the A19 are owned by Nissan employees and bought or leased at preferential rates. (Still massively outnumbered by all the Qashqais on that area's roads though!) My son who gave up car ownership a few years ago for various reasons spot hires small city-EVs from a car share outfit for local trips when he needs wheels, but it's very small pool of electric cars in the club for a city of >100,000.
Volvo has admitted that carbon input into EV manufacture is high. It aims to get the '40' model range carbon input down by 2025 (yet another 'jam tomorrow' forecast?), but nearly all the Volvo new or newish plug-in hybrid Volvo SUVs that I see are power guzzling obese larger models, primarily the XC60.
Volvo says electric car making emissions are 70% HIGHER than petrol
Looking at Volvo UK's '2023 model list pricing the only XC60 model under £50,000 basic is the sole petrol only model.
https://assets.volvocars.com/uk/~/m.../pricelists/volvo-xc60-pricelist.pdf?la=en-gb
That's also a puzzle to me as I'm sure I read at least a couple of years ago that Volvo had announced to the world that within two years it would not make any cars that didn't have at least a part electric drivetrain, so how come there's a petrol XC60 in the '2023' line-up? Moreover, unless my research is too limited or basically flawed, only the C40 and XC40 are available in full EV ('Recharge') form. The list prices for the C/XC40 'Recharge' models are also staggeringly higher than for the others.
Still too expensive to tempt many drivers says Autotrader. It says average new EV prices are still 37% dearer than equivalent petrol.
Used EVs cost £8,000 more than comparable petrol and diesel.
Lat year only 3 EVs had a new price under £20,000 compared to 11 the previous year.
Demographic profile of Autotrader searchers for EVs is 'predominately [by] older, richer people living in affluent parts of the country, a trend at odds with the 'normal' profile of early technology adopters who tend to be young and metropolitan'.
Quote from Autotrader spokesperson Erin Baker: 'I am concerned that we are in a bit of a bubble at the moment. There are enough wealthy motorists out there to drive sales for now, but if EVs don't become more affordable soon, we will, to put it bluntly run out of rich people and the mass adoption that the Government is banking on will not materialise.'
February EV sales were 18% of February totals says the SMMT, double last year but down from 26% in December.
Price apart, I'd love to see a breakdown of the size and weight of EVs and hybrids being sold. Based on a small sample - newspaper road test report numbers and what I see in supermarket car parks, I don't see small, light new EVs crowding the roads. They're predominately mid to large size, heavy, heavily carbon consuming models (in their manufacture) and needing enough power to propel 1-2 tonnes of vehicle on big, wide friction-generating tyres. The only place I see small EVs which I'd naively thought would be the carbon-reducing future is on trips to the North-East passing Nissan's Sunderland plant where I presume most of the Leafs (Leaves?) I see on the A19 are owned by Nissan employees and bought or leased at preferential rates. (Still massively outnumbered by all the Qashqais on that area's roads though!) My son who gave up car ownership a few years ago for various reasons spot hires small city-EVs from a car share outfit for local trips when he needs wheels, but it's very small pool of electric cars in the club for a city of >100,000.
Volvo has admitted that carbon input into EV manufacture is high. It aims to get the '40' model range carbon input down by 2025 (yet another 'jam tomorrow' forecast?), but nearly all the Volvo new or newish plug-in hybrid Volvo SUVs that I see are power guzzling obese larger models, primarily the XC60.
Volvo says electric car making emissions are 70% HIGHER than petrol
Looking at Volvo UK's '2023 model list pricing the only XC60 model under £50,000 basic is the sole petrol only model.
https://assets.volvocars.com/uk/~/m.../pricelists/volvo-xc60-pricelist.pdf?la=en-gb
That's also a puzzle to me as I'm sure I read at least a couple of years ago that Volvo had announced to the world that within two years it would not make any cars that didn't have at least a part electric drivetrain, so how come there's a petrol XC60 in the '2023' line-up? Moreover, unless my research is too limited or basically flawed, only the C40 and XC40 are available in full EV ('Recharge') form. The list prices for the C/XC40 'Recharge' models are also staggeringly higher than for the others.
Aircraft jet engines? submarines, maybe? shotguns? Aerospace. Some of the oil and gas engineering firms. Racing cars. And let's be realistic, British cars in the 70s were not high quality. The thing that puzzles me is your analysis of the cause, if the lack of company training and education was the cause of the ailment, surely it would have taken a good decade or two to feed through into the output?
To address your last point on petrol xc60 they are “mild“ hybrids. My diesel xc90 is a mild hybrid, the 8th one I have had. There is a small 48V battery which spins up the turbos and removes turbo lag and allegedly improves fuel efficiency.
"Mild" hybrids aka "soft" hybrids or confusingly, "self charging" hybrids all have small batteries (less than 1 kwh) and one or two electric motors which can power the vehicle for very short distances (usually less than one mile)
The argument for them is that in stop/start city driving, the ice will be off when the vehicle is stopped and electric motor will allow the car to pull away (slowly) until a speed is reached which allows the ice to run reasonably efficiently. Braking or going downhill will put charge back into the battery (hence the self charging name)
This does work to some extent and improves fuel consumption in stop/start driving conditions.
The electric drive train can also provide a very short boost in overall power when needed for better acceleration
My wifes' Lexus 300NX is a mild hybrid with a 2.5 litre petrol engine yet it does a genuine 40mpg in town.
On the open road the hybrid system is just extra weight to lug around and does nothing for fuel consumption.
This type of hybrid vehicle will not be available new post 2030
Plug in" hybrids (PHEV) have larger batteries (up to around 15kwh) and can be driven on pure electric power for up to around 30 miles and charged from a typical 7kw home charger in a couple of hours
If your daily commute is shorter than the vehicles electric range, then effectively you can be driving an electric car
A friend of mine who lives in a small town in Aberdeenshire and who is the bailiff on a local river has a Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV and does his daily local rounds on pure electric power.
The one thing you don't do with a PHEV is charge the battery from the engine as you drive along in petrol power - that really kills fuel efficiency
If you do a long journey in a PHEV, use ice power on the main roads and if you have to go through built up areas, switch to battery power until you're back on the open road again. As with mild hybrids, going downhill and braking generates electricity which is fed back into the battery
Some PHEV models will be available new post 2030 but they must have some minimum (as yet undefined) electric only range and they will not be available new from 2035.
Cheers
Bruce
The argument for them is that in stop/start city driving, the ice will be off when the vehicle is stopped and electric motor will allow the car to pull away (slowly) until a speed is reached which allows the ice to run reasonably efficiently. Braking or going downhill will put charge back into the battery (hence the self charging name)
This does work to some extent and improves fuel consumption in stop/start driving conditions.
The electric drive train can also provide a very short boost in overall power when needed for better acceleration
My wifes' Lexus 300NX is a mild hybrid with a 2.5 litre petrol engine yet it does a genuine 40mpg in town.
On the open road the hybrid system is just extra weight to lug around and does nothing for fuel consumption.
This type of hybrid vehicle will not be available new post 2030
Plug in" hybrids (PHEV) have larger batteries (up to around 15kwh) and can be driven on pure electric power for up to around 30 miles and charged from a typical 7kw home charger in a couple of hours
If your daily commute is shorter than the vehicles electric range, then effectively you can be driving an electric car
A friend of mine who lives in a small town in Aberdeenshire and who is the bailiff on a local river has a Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV and does his daily local rounds on pure electric power.
The one thing you don't do with a PHEV is charge the battery from the engine as you drive along in petrol power - that really kills fuel efficiency
If you do a long journey in a PHEV, use ice power on the main roads and if you have to go through built up areas, switch to battery power until you're back on the open road again. As with mild hybrids, going downhill and braking generates electricity which is fed back into the battery
Some PHEV models will be available new post 2030 but they must have some minimum (as yet undefined) electric only range and they will not be available new from 2035.
Cheers
Bruce
You know your stuff in fairness Bruce, I wish I had your brain.
Lexus had the self charging, big petrol hybrid engine mastered a long time ago and they are still standing the test of time and resale value.
Way ahead of their time too with all the extra gizmo's and quality of build.
About 10 years ago I was running a LWB Hiace on 60/40 diesel/filtered used veg oil, she's in Nigeria now and will probably be still running long after I'm gone. I do the odd long run and in the Hiace you'd have to know the road well and plan on overtaking any slow drivers well in advance. Starting her up near any pedestrians in a built up area was always interesting but it was a workhorse and didn't owe me a penny when I sold her on to one of the chaps that bought them for export.
With the Lexus hybrid people standing right next to it can't actually hear you start or drive off, big difference from getting nearly half deaf and the waft of fish and chips all over the place from the Hiace. It's the comfort in the Lexus that makes the difference though, unreal on a long or short drive. Cheap to run too is a huge bonus.
Lexus had the self charging, big petrol hybrid engine mastered a long time ago and they are still standing the test of time and resale value.
Way ahead of their time too with all the extra gizmo's and quality of build.
About 10 years ago I was running a LWB Hiace on 60/40 diesel/filtered used veg oil, she's in Nigeria now and will probably be still running long after I'm gone. I do the odd long run and in the Hiace you'd have to know the road well and plan on overtaking any slow drivers well in advance. Starting her up near any pedestrians in a built up area was always interesting but it was a workhorse and didn't owe me a penny when I sold her on to one of the chaps that bought them for export.
With the Lexus hybrid people standing right next to it can't actually hear you start or drive off, big difference from getting nearly half deaf and the waft of fish and chips all over the place from the Hiace. It's the comfort in the Lexus that makes the difference though, unreal on a long or short drive. Cheap to run too is a huge bonus.
Not correct for what Volvo term mild hybrids - the small battery has no capability to propel the car and there is no electric motor to drive the wheels.
Toyota have had their "Hybrid Synergy Drive" mild hybrid system since the original Toyota Prius in 1997 and it's now available on many Toyota/Lexus cars.
It's extremely well engineered and virtually bomb proof and understandably Toyota don't want to give up on it.
However the times have changed and Toyota has gone from being a leader in low emission vehicles to being the most anti ev manufacturer
Whilst I admire the quality and reliability of their vehicles their active anti ev stance puts their entire company at risk.
Cheers
Bruce
It's extremely well engineered and virtually bomb proof and understandably Toyota don't want to give up on it.
However the times have changed and Toyota has gone from being a leader in low emission vehicles to being the most anti ev manufacturer
Whilst I admire the quality and reliability of their vehicles their active anti ev stance puts their entire company at risk.
Cheers
Bruce
Thank you for this.
I was not aware that Volvo had yet further corrupted the term "hybrid" by selling a vehicle termed hybrid that has no electric drive capability.
I thought Toyota had won the prize for marketing BS with "Self Charging Hybrid" but it appears that Volvo have come up with even more BS
Cheers
Bruce
True, but then 57.95p of that 1.55 isn't the cost of fuel, it's tax burden. Fuel duty to be precise.Thus speaks someone who knows nothing about the relative costs of filling an ice car with diesel or petrol and charging an electric vehicle
Including charging losses, most electric cars will travel 3 miles on a single kilowatt hour of electricity
At a typical standard rate tariff for electricity of 27p per kilowatt hour, that works out at 9p per mile for your fuel.
Most people charge at night on a lower tariff, but we'll ignore that for just now
At the current rate of £1.55 per litre for diesel (£7.00 per gallon) and with a generous consumptiom of 50mpg, that works out at a cost per mile for diesel of 14p
Lat time I looked, 9p was less than 14p
Cheers
Bruce
Excluding fuel duty, which will likely end up being applied in some form to electricity if evs take off, the actual cost per mile using your figures is 8.82p for a diesel. The same as the ev...
But wait! VAT on fuel is 20%, the VAT on electricity is 5%. So even more tax breaks for the evs.
Evs are cheaper, so long as they're exempt from fuel duty and carry lower vat rates. If everyone has an ev, is that likely to be the case? I can't see the government just saying 'fair enough, we'll lose 28bn a year in duty plus 15% vat on fuel equivalent electricity because it's 'the right thing to do'.
So, 9p in Leccy, 5p+ a mile in public road charges to make up the duty and vat deficit, slightly more expensive leccy generally to cover all the new infrastructure spend and elimination of lower tariffs overnight as that's no longer off peak if everyone is charging their car anyway. No worse than diesel. But no longer the early adopter bargain ev 'fuel' is right now.
Bavarianbrit
Well-Known Member
My analysis of the cause was really my gut feeling, I have no statistics to prove it but to look at Coventry as it was the place I knew best. All closed - Standard Triumph, the Humber/Sunbeam/Hillman group later Chrysler, Jaguar at Browns Lane, Daimler cars, the Morris engine plant, Herbert machine tools, The Torrington company, Alvis, Bretts stamping works, Armstrong Siddeley, Motor Panels where I worked, the list goes on and on.
Today on the news nickel has now hit £100,000 per ton. Russia was a major source the beebs comment was, it is heavily used in EV manufacture
