Fun with Charts: a decade and a bit of stalking in Data - because you're all geeks ;)

Pine Marten

Well-Known Member
Hello everyone!

Last week, I realised that the CWD I’d shot was in fact the 20th deer I’d stalked. Well, technically one of those deer was a wild boar, but it’s the stalking that counts. Then someone asked about the sex ratio of deer that people had shot. So I checked, and before I knew it I’d tripped over a spreadsheet and fallen through a nerdhole. It occurred to me that this is exactly the sort of thing that is likely to get the pixels flowing on here, and so I give you My Decade-and-a-Bit of Stalking For The Pot in Seven Charts.

Important Note: this is a based on a weak dataset where the universe is 49 stalking outings, representative only of the 49 stalking outings I’ve been on. I’ve also tried to represent what numbers I have honestly to avoid trouble with @Mungo. No cross-referencing of such a small number of data points can have any statistical significance. It’s just for fun and discussion. Don’t shout at me please.

Chart 1: Summary of all outings. N=49.

Outings.webp

Key findings:
1. I have been successful on 41% of occasions with wildly varying distribution.
2. Frequency of stalking has been affected hugely by babies and pandemics, not always negatively.
3. I don’t actually stalk much.

Chart 2: Summary of species stalked. N=20

Species.webp

Key findings:
1. I shoot little deer that fit in my domestic freezer.
2. Fallow bucks are an imaginary animal like unicorns.

Chart 3: Accuracy of my shooting in the field. N=22

Impact.webp

Key Findings:
1. I’ve improved. Of the two misses, the first was the first deer I shot at. The liver shot was the first deer I shot. The gut shot was the first and only boar I’ve shot. Not that I’m proud of these.
2. My rifles are plenty accurate enough.

Chart 4: Effect of my shooting in the field. N=22

Outcome.webp

1. No lost animals. That at least is happy result. Only one serious follow-up needed on that boar. Not an experience I’d care to repeat.
2. It’s not that hard to kill deer cleanly and quickly. Even the runners here only made it a few metres.

Chart 5: Use of venison. N=20

Venison.webp

1. I’ve eaten 87.5% of the animals I’ve shot. I’m happy with that too.
2. I don’t like shooting things I won’t eat. It leaves a feeling of incompleteness.

Two more to follow but that should set keyboards wagging hopefully.
 
Like a good data visualisation me...

Here's my current favourite: plotting the probability of a runner (defined as moving >1m after being hit) as a function of range, after controlling for cartridge used. Dots are observed outcomes, coloured by cartridge (1= ran >1m, 0 = dropped to shot). Dotted line is the estimated probability at each range, derived from a generalised lineal model, solid lines are 95% CI of the estimate. Conclusion? Cartridge didn;t make a difference to probability of getting a runner, but range did.

Rplot.png
 
Oh nice! That’s a bit cleverer than what I have. Give me another couple of decades and I’ll have a decent dataset to play with. One thing I just don’t have is a record of range. Except that I’d say they were 90% under 100m, as you’d probably expect for lowland stalking.

Actually, I said I had a couple more and these are pure cartridge geekiness. It’s almost as if I just created them to start an argument.

Chart 6: Calibres used on successful outings (N=20)

Round.webp

Key Findings: It doesn’t seem to make a blind bit of difference.

Chart 7: Bullets used on successful outings (N=20)

Head.webp

Key finding: These are all good bullets for the stalking I do.
 
Hello everyone!

Last week, I realised that the CWD I’d shot was in fact the 20th deer I’d stalked. Well, technically one of those deer was a wild boar, but it’s the stalking that counts. Then someone asked about the sex ratio of deer that people had shot. So I checked, and before I knew it I’d tripped over a spreadsheet and fallen through a nerdhole. It occurred to me that this is exactly the sort of thing that is likely to get the pixels flowing on here, and so I give you My Decade-and-a-Bit of Stalking For The Pot in Seven Charts.

Important Note: this is a based on a weak dataset where the universe is 49 stalking outings, representative only of the 49 stalking outings I’ve been on. I’ve also tried to represent what numbers I have honestly to avoid trouble with @Mungo. No cross-referencing of such a small number of data points can have any statistical significance. It’s just for fun and discussion. Don’t shout at me please.

Chart 1: Summary of all outings. N=49.

View attachment 297394

Key findings:
1. I have been successful on 41% of occasions with wildly varying distribution.
2. Frequency of stalking has been affected hugely by babies and pandemics, not always negatively.
3. I don’t actually stalk much.

Chart 2: Summary of species stalked. N=20

View attachment 297395

Key findings:
1. I shoot little deer that fit in my domestic freezer.
2. Fallow bucks are an imaginary animal like unicorns.

Chart 3: Accuracy of my shooting in the field. N=22

View attachment 297404

Key Findings:
1. I’ve improved. Of the two misses, the first was the first deer I shot at. The liver shot was the first deer I shot. The gut shot was the first and only boar I’ve shot. Not that I’m proud of these.
2. My rifles are plenty accurate enough.

Chart 4: Effect of my shooting in the field. N=22

View attachment 297405

1. No lost animals. That at least is happy result. Only one serious follow-up needed on that boar. Not an experience I’d care to repeat.
2. It’s not that hard to kill deer cleanly and quickly. Even the runners here only made it a few metres.

Chart 5: Use of venison. N=20

View attachment 297406

1. I’ve eaten 87.5% of the animals I’ve shot. I’m happy with that too.
2. I don’t like shooting things I won’t eat. It leaves a feeling of incompleteness.

Two more to follow but that should set keyboards wagging hopefully.
The only obvious conclusion to draw from that lot is that you need to get out more... 😂
 
@Pine Marten I think the thing I am most impressed by is the sheer quantity of information you have recorded.

I couldn't possibly produce anything resembling this. I have no idea how many times I have been out looking for deer, although the number I have shot is small enough that I know how many misses I have had!

Do you have a game book or stalking book? I am starting to wish I had kept one....
 
This is great! Love a bit of data. Re the range and probability of a runner, why is that? I assume all your shots are perfectly placed so is it because the bullet is slowing down? Interesting.
 
Awesome statistics and nothing quite like a performance dashboard and pie chart to get the juices flowing.

Perhaps you might offer your services to Norfolk Deer Search and DEFRA?

K
Ps: Please add a column for type of fowling piece as the tactical creedmoor-toting kids must not be permitted to have it all their own way!
 
This is great! Love a bit of data. Re the range and probability of a runner, why is that? I assume all your shots are perfectly placed so is it because the bullet is slowing down? Interesting.
Almost certainly because of energy loss with range.

Though I think there is almost certainly some decline in the precision of shot placement. Much as I wish I could say all my shots are perfectly placed, we all know that would be a lie…
 
K
Ps: Please add a column for type of fowling piece as the tactical creedmoor-toting kids must not be permitted to have it all their own way!
Oh right, fair enough.

Disclaimer: no moderators, rangefinders or plastic stocks were included in this study (except the 1 shot with @sikamalc 's 270 in 2012). Or bipods. Or camo clothing. It's all stutzens, drillings and enthusiasm. And a fair amount of bloody-mindedness, frankly.
 
Hmm, I can replicate a reasonable amount of those charts. No chance of telling what happened to the meat as I only started keeping records of that when I registered as a business.
I really need to get my new computer up and running.
 
@Pine Marten I think the thing I am most impressed by is the sheer quantity of information you have recorded.

I couldn't possibly produce anything resembling this. I have no idea how many times I have been out looking for deer, although the number I have shot is small enough that I know how many misses I have had!

Do you have a game book or stalking book? I am starting to wish I had kept one....
Yes, I have kept diaries since 2007. But they're not big on numbers, it wasn't the point. The point was to help remember the occasions. So they're quite impressionistic, they're about what I liked, what I didn't, how it felt. If I ha just filled in the pre-printed columns that say "the bag", I would have had nothing worthwhile to put in them. I ignore them, glue in one or two photos and write the story. It's a great pleasure, it's reliving the adventure and I can do ot again anytime subsequently, especially in times when for whatever reason I can't go.

But hidden in all that there is data, and this is the first time I pull it together. Now I'm thinking of doing the same for small game but it's by nature not quite the same. And my records are messier.
 
Well yes. But I went stalking a lot with @willie_gunn and those were much needed stepping stones of sanity.
I meant 2020 was crappy for us all for all sorts of reasons, mostly unrelated to hunting deer. Your blanks, I assume, did little to help 2020 be viewed as anything other than a year to forget what with all the covid junk going on.
 
Impressive collection and presentation of data, I feel as if I should either clap or employ you good people to do my taxes. Very nice work Indeed 👏👏👏.
 
This is great! Love a bit of data. Re the range and probability of a runner, why is that? I assume all your shots are perfectly placed so is it because the bullet is slowing down? Interesting.
Having thought about this some more, and having shot 2 more this morning at 275 and 320, both of which ran, I also think this: I think I shift my point of aim at longer range. At short range, where I can be absolutely certain about exactly where I’m going to hit, I will try for more surgical shots - hilar, base of neck etc (head shots are excluded from this data set). At longer range, I shift to more conventional ‘tuck behind the elbow, half way up’ shot. This is more forgiving of errors in placement, but also leads to more runners.

And we can’t ignore the fact that error increases at range anyway!
 
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