I agree that things have changed so much. The data for the sparrowhawks and grey partridge is however more recent than the 1970s.
The sparrowhawk project started by investigating raptor kill rates and the causes of local extinctions on downland in Sussex. It then developed into a study across 20 sites that contained different densities of raptors and partridges, spread across eight counties from Dorset to Lincolnshire. The aim was to gather information about partridge survival and habitat use from radio-tracking under different levels of raptor predation risk. Researchers spent over 3,149 hours gathering data across 20 sites during the winters of 2000/01, 2001/02 and 2002/03.
www.gwct.org.uk
The post mortems on grey partridge revealing lead shot ingestion were from 1947 to 1992, where successive pathologists at The Game Conservancy Trust carried out 1,318 post-mortems on adult wild grey partridges found dead in the UK. During a study of chick food from 1968 to 1978 on the Sussex Downs, the gizzards of 29 wild chicks aged up to 6 weeks were also examined.
Dick Pott's analysis of that data showed that the incidence of lead poisoning increased from 1947–1958 to 1963–1992. During 1963–1992, the incidence of lead gunshot ingestion was 4.5±1.0% in adults and 6.9±4.7% in chicks. The weights of individual lead shot in the chick gizzards showed a rapid rate of erosion, indicating a short retention time in the gizzard, as has also been reported for adult waterfowl and game birds.
Dick explained in more detail as follows:
It is remarkable that between 1968 and 1978, two chicks sampled from separate broods on the Sussex Downs had, within 3 weeks of hatching, ingested 13 and 14 lead shot. Moreover, the erosion of the individual shot suggests that they were ingested within a short discrete period of time. Somewhat similarly, a grey partridge in Denmark in 1976 had ingested 34 lead shot, a grey partridge in Wiltshire in 1966, 26 (this study) and a pheasant on the Sussex Downs in 1970, 87. All these cases occurred in a predominantly arable environment where cultivation removes most of the shot from the soil surface.
The measured incidence of lead shot in gizzards considerably underestimates the annual exposure because the shot is retained in the gizzard only for a relatively short period of time. The average erosion of lead in the grey partridge chicks, 55%, is remarkable given that the chicks were aged only 2–3 weeks (18 days) and had presumably not ingested the lead on their first day. The erosion in the chick gizzards is consistent with lead shot loss in adult mallard; mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) and bobwhite quail (Colinus virginianus) and willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus). It follows that the gizzards of some living partridges that contain no lead shot at the time of sampling will probably have contained shot previously.
As regards the 2016 paper using data to model the impact of lead shot ingestion in the grey partridge population, that was based on data from the Potts UK data from 1947-1992, grey partridge in Scotland from 1997 to 2003, a massive radiotracking project of 1,009 hen greys in France from 1995-1997. The data showed direct mortality from lead shot ingestion at 4% and ultimate mortality from lead shot ingestion at 7%. The population modelling based on that data estimated a reduced population size of partridges by 10% due to lead shot ingestion.
Little is known about the magnitude of the effects of lead shot ingestion alone or combined with poisons (e.g., in bait or seeds/granules containing pesticides) on population size, growth, and extinction of non-waterbird avian species that ingest these substances. We used population models to...
journals.plos.org