The future is electric

[mealiejimmy]

Would petrochemical fuel be more expensive even now if it didn't have both fuel tax and then VAT on top? What makes you think HMG will walk away from the vast amount of revenue ICE fuel sales provide? (£28 Billion in Fuel Tax alone in 2019/20) There will either be road pricing or a requirement for separate metering with the latter paying a road vehicle fuel tax supplement as now. For many users, the future will most likely be far more expensive than today.

I'm perhaps a tad cynical on all this. As a teenager in the 1960s when the country was investing heavily in the first and second generation nukes, it was a common assertion in the press and on TV science programmes like 'Tomorrow's World' that electricity would be almost free once generating plant capital costs were covered, the marginal costs of producing power being so low.

I've never owned a new vehicle in my life and recent ICE petrol cars have a potentially massively long life, not recent diesel sadly with all the EU emissions control bells & whistles strapped all over them, giving long and good value second/third/fourth hand ownership possibilities. As another 70-plus year old friend in the same boat (even more so as he owns both pre-war vintage cars and a more recent but still very elderly Saab 900 Turbo) says, what is the battery life and actual driving ranges of three, four, five year old EVs? There is already a Youtube video around of a Finnish s/h Tesla owner having his car dynamited as the battery failed after only a few years running and the replacement cost is 17,000 Euros - only Tesla has told him that only they can replace the battery, and they'd have to consider whether that even feasible at any price.

It will have to be road pricing - separate meters is too complicated, expensive and open to fraud
Road pricing is also fairer - the more you use the roads, the more you pay
As for battery life - if you drive an ev full blast every day and fast charge it every day then yes, the battery life will be reduced - but that's no different from boy racers burning out the engines in their cars by having a heavy right foot and very few brain cells
Home charge at 7kW and driven sensibly, ev batteries will still have at least 70-80% of their original capacity when they are much older than the current typical manufacturer warranty of 8 years
For every ev that has battery problems because of over zealous driving there are many with more than 100,000 miles on the clock and still giving their owners more than enough range for everyday use

Cheers

Bruce

 

[mealiejimmy]

I'm pretty sure that's just what's going to happen. Leasing and hire companies will find then that three-year residuals are as fraction of what they are now in percentage terms of the original cost and their prices will rise accordingly. Even if we eventually get 'cheap' new EV prices, which as per my remarks on 'free nuclear industry electricity' I'd bet will never be delivered, cars risk becoming buy new and throw away / replace items pricing a great number of people out of the market. In effect buying a high-mileage ex fleet EV that is three, four years old will be like buying a 10, 12-year old Mondeo or Vauxhall Astra, Insignia etc. now. Cheap up front, but it goes to the scrapper as soon as something expensive fails, in this case the battery.

On a separate but related note, as a regular user of the central section of the M62, the country's highest motorway, a common cause of major delays occasionally complete shutdowns is the single accident (often relatively minor), much more commonly a single broken down vehicle. I really wonder what happens on a future winter's day in a near blizzard when the motorway is closed for a couple of hours, or three or four, and the several thousand vehicles four lanes wide behind are composed of 25, 30, 50, maybe a majority, of EVs that face having the lights or heating on or having enough charge to carry on once the traffic starts moving again. It'll only take a handful to be 'flat' on reopening to cause a secondary and in practice complete road shutdown knowing just how much disruption a single vehicle breakdown on one lane currently causes.

The "will evs go flat when stuck on the motorway during a blizzard" trope raises its head again
Running the heater, wipers, lights, radio in an ev uses approx 1-1.5kw of electricity - less if the car has a heat pump rather than a resistive electric heater.
A typical ev with a 50kw electric battery could therefore sit for a long time in such conditions without any problem
Before anyone says that the battery could have been low on charge when the car was stopped due to the accident/incident and could not run the lights, heater etc - then the ev owner has exactly the same option as an ice vehicle in the same situation with its low fuel light warning on - switch the car off.
In the case of an ev there is also the option to reduce the electrical load. Most evs actually tell you how much electricity they are using so it's easy to see the effect of switching on and off various functions to find out what minimum consumption is needed to remain legal/safe/warm

Cheers

Bruce

 

[Ratel]

Thus speaks someone who knows nothing about the relative costs of filling an ice car with diesel or petrol and charging an electric vehicle
Including charging losses, most electric cars will travel 3 miles on a single kilowatt hour of electricity
At a typical standard rate tariff for electricity of 27p per kilowatt hour, that works out at 9p per mile for your fuel.
Most people charge at night on a lower tariff, but we'll ignore that for just now
At the current rate of £1.55 per litre for diesel (£7.00 per gallon) and with a generous consumptiom of 50mpg, that works out at a cost per mile for diesel of 14p
Lat time I looked, 9p was less than 14p

Cheers

Bruce

It is Sunday, and there speaketh another Pedant.
Oh I just realised he's from canny Aberdeen.

 

[308tikka]

I'm pretty sure that's just what's going to happen. Leasing and hire companies will find then that three-year residuals are as fraction of what they are now in percentage terms of the original cost and their prices will rise accordingly. Even if we eventually get 'cheap' new EV prices, which as per my remarks on 'free nuclear industry electricity' I'd bet will never be delivered, cars risk becoming buy new and throw away / replace items pricing a great number of people out of the market. In effect buying a high-mileage ex fleet EV that is three, four years old will be like buying a 10, 12-year old Mondeo or Vauxhall Astra, Insignia etc. now. Cheap up front, but it goes to the scrapper as soon as something expensive fails, in this case the battery.

On a separate but related note, as a regular user of the central section of the M62, the country's highest motorway, a common cause of major delays occasionally complete shutdowns is the single accident (often relatively minor), much more commonly a single broken down vehicle. I really wonder what happens on a future winter's day in a near blizzard when the motorway is closed for a couple of hours, or three or four, and the several thousand vehicles four lanes wide behind are composed of 25, 30, 50, maybe a majority, of EVs that face having the lights or heating on or having enough charge to carry on once the traffic starts moving again. It'll only take a handful to be 'flat' on reopening to cause a secondary and in practice complete road shutdown knowing just how much disruption a single vehicle breakdown on one lane currently causes.

Having discussed issues with a Tesla owner in Ottawa, charging units were only fitted in an insulated garage, the car had to be parked inside it and it wasnt used in the Canadian winter. So he had a F150 as well.

Kind of tells you the realities of using them.

Im yet to see anyone on here put a video or stills on, loading a fallow into their Tesla.

 

[mealiejimmy]

Having discussed issues with a Tesla owner in Ottawa, charging units were only fitted in an insulated garage, the car had to be parked inside it and it wasnt used in the Canadian winter. So he had a F150 as well.

Kind of tells you the realities of using them.

Im yet to see anyone on here put a video or stills on, loading a fallow into their Tesla.

As many on here will know, I'm a proponent of electric vehicles. I think they are the way of the future for personal transportation and will eventually do to ice vehicles what ice vehicles did to the horse and cart.
However, I'm also a realist and fully accept that there will be no electric pick ups or large 4WDs to replace the type of vehicles used by many SD forum members within the next 5 years.
My shooting vehicle is a Landcruiser and I'm not getting rid of it any time soon.
However, we are in the minority and the large majority of car owners can have an electric vehicle which will do everything they need and cost far less to run.
At the moment, electric vehicles are more expensive than the equivalent ice car, but for many models there will be price parity in the next 2-3 years.
Also, building an ev (mainly because of the battery) produces more greenhouse gasses than building an ice vehicle, but running it produces far less greenhouse gas than running an ice vehicle
The point at which the ev becomes nett less greenhouse gas producing depends on the source of the electricity from which the ev is charged.
Charge it from electricity produced in a coal burning power station and it will take longer and charging it from electricity produced by wind and solar will reduce the time.
Given the mix of electricity generation in the UK, an ev will be producing less total greenhouse gas than an ice vehicle around 2 years after it goes on the road.
As for temperature, yes ev range is reduced on cold weather, but Norway gets temperatures in winter far lower than we ever experience here, but that doesn't stop them having more evs per head of population than any other country in the world

Cheers

Bruce

 

[308tikka]

So, for your recreational purposes youre a two vehicle owner. As much as your aspirations are laudable, its still pretty selfish. Perhaps less of the preaching then? Thats how it comes across.

Its not a personal attack- I rinse one of my closest friends who is all for EVs but owns two 4x4s and multiple transatlantic flights per year.

We can talk about whats feasible in 2030/40/50, but that isnt what people will have to deal with now. Or in the next 5.

Planning is good. Forcing people by law to have restricted choice - and possibly not even for the best tech - when the reality of energy availability and infrastructure upgrade costs will cripple a fragile economy is nothing more than economic fascism.

As George Carlin once said, when both major political parties agree on something, then you should be really scared....

The reasoning behind this push to EV is clear in the media, its clear among scientists (who benefit from the grants and the projects), its clear in the minds of those who-at subsidised rates-get cheaper driving, for now.

What isnt clear, is how this will benefit the average person, doing an average job, with average income. ‘But the planet will be saved!’ I hear the collective cry.....

Does anyone really think anyone is pushing EV for the benefit of the planet, and not their own bottom line?

There will be a shift-no longer the modelled planetary crisis of doom shaping public policy.

Public policy will be shaped by the reality of energy security, food on the shelves and of course the much more immediate threat to the planet from a madman in Moscow.

 

[efp]

I’m 100% in favour of our moving away from a dead dinosaur juice based world economy as soon as possible for a host of reasons, as I think anyone with half a brain should. These range from the obvious environmental damage, via the geopolitical dangers of being reliant on producers like the Arab states, Venezuela and most topically Russia, to the less obvious like the scourge of single use plastics, which most people don’t realise are predominantly a petroleum industry waste product the companies would have to pay to dispose of had they not conditioned us to consume in such vast quantities. Plastic wrapped bananas sold in a plastic carrier bag? What sense does that make?

BUT. In the push towards the admirable net-zero targets our absurd legislators so often misdirect their attentions towards headline box-ticking rather than rationality. E10 petrol for example. A recent study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences suggests Ethanol’s emission damage may be at least 24 percent higher than that for gasoline. And in another link here referencing its hugely negative overall effects, research by Princeton University back in 2008 and published in the reputable Science magazine, finds that over a 30-year span, biofuels end up contributing twice as much carbon dioxide to the air as that amount of gasoline would, when you add in the global effects.

NPR Cookie Consent and Choices

Neither of these sources can be accused of being petro industry shills surely?

I own five cars. The youngest is now 20 years old. My total mileage between them is around 6-8000 a year. (Yeah, I’m stupid). Compare and contrast the emissions I produce even with their “inefficient “ engines, with the environmental costs of scrapping them and then mining, refining, transportation of the raw materials, then machining, assembling, painting of five new cars. Whose rare earth components and lithium batteries will be scrap in ten years. Yet I am the guilty one and have to be taxed highly.

I could rant on at great length and bore everyone, but I’ll just give you one anecdote in further illustration of the stupidity.
We have a huge water main crossing part of our ground, which leaks frequently. Last time the water board turned up to excavate and repair it with a couple of new shiny environmentally friendly electric diggers. Which were fine. Did the job.
Except there was no charging point in the middle of the wood. So a large diesel generator was bought in to run through the night, every night for a fortnight, to recharge them.
Go figure.

 

[mealiejimmy]

So, for your recreational purposes youre a two vehicle owner. As much as your aspirations are laudable, its still pretty selfish. Perhaps less of the preaching then? Thats how it comes across.

Its not a personal attack- I rinse one of my closest friends who is all for EVs but owns two 4x4s and multiple transatlantic flights per year.

We can talk about whats feasible in 2030/40/50, but that isnt what people will have to deal with now. Or in the next 5.

Planning is good. Forcing people by law to have restricted choice - and possibly not even for the best tech - when the reality of energy availability and infrastructure upgrade costs will cripple a fragile economy is nothing more than economic fascism.

As George Carlin once said, when both major political parties agree on something, then you should be really scared....

The reasoning behind this push to EV is clear in the media, its clear among scientists (who benefit from the grants and the projects), its clear in the minds of those who-at subsidised rates-get cheaper driving, for now.

What isnt clear, is how this will benefit the average person, doing an average job, with average income. ‘But the planet will be saved!’ I hear the collective cry.....

Does anyone really think anyone is pushing EV for the benefit of the planet, and not their own bottom line?

There will be a shift-no longer the modelled planetary crisis of doom shaping public policy.

Public policy will be shaped by the reality of energy security, food on the shelves and of course the much more immediate threat to the planet from a madman in Moscow.

I'm not telling people to buy an electric car.
What I'm trying to do is explain the benefits and limitations of ev ownership and demonstrate that an electric vehicle is a perfectly good choice for many people and also trying to dispel much of the misinformation that surrounds evs
I believe that by 2030 there will be evs which can replace the Hiluxes/Navarras/L200s/Rangers/Landcruisers/Discoverys etc
Current UK government policy would prohibit the sale of new ice vehicles of that type by 2030 and I don't believe manufacturers are simply going to walk away from that market.

Cheers

Bruce

 

[Rasputin]

Had a look at the Porsche Taycan estate over the weekend. A chap went from are you looking at my car with a view to steal it to 30 minutes showing me every inch of it. What a car it was gorgeous inside and out. A man can only dream.

 

[Bavarianbrit]

Had a look at the Porsche Taycan estate over the weekend. A chap went from are you looking at my car with a view to steal it to 30 minutes showing me every inch of it. What a car it was gorgeous inside and out. A man can only dream.

I spent a working year in their styling studio in Weissach Germany it is only 2.5mm plastic panels covered in thin foam with leather glued on top same as at it was Humber 50 years ago, do not let appearances fool you.

 

[Bavarianbrit]

Having discussed issues with a Tesla owner in Ottawa, charging units were only fitted in an insulated garage, the car had to be parked inside it and it wasnt used in the Canadian winter. So he had a F150 as well.

Kind of tells you the realities of using them.

Im yet to see anyone on here put a video or stills on, loading a fallow into their Tesla.

Here you are, only whitetails I'm afraid.

 

[xavierdoc]

Im yet to see anyone on here put a video or stills on, loading a fallow into their Tesla.

I drive to most perms in my Tesla but have always (pre-Tesla included) extracted using a Kawasaki Mule (or equivalent JCB Groundhog, tractor etc.)

Once butchered, the deer goes in the Tesla: the Frunk and under-floor storage in the boot are ideal. The AWD is pretty good but ground clearance and road tyres mean it's unsuitable for mud/off-road.

If I had a the leccy F150, Rivian or Cybertruck, I'd probably still use the Mule as it's ideally suited to the task. If the Mule was electric, that would be good, but it's not mine to replace, even if such a thing existed.

 

[User00035]

Maybe I'm missing something here - I'm not an electrical engineer - but why are the bodies of electric vehicles not made from photo-voltaic material? Especially off-road evs.

 

[xavierdoc]

Maybe I'm missing something here - I'm not an electrical engineer - but why are the bodies of electric vehicles not made from photo-voltaic material? Especially off-road evs.

A few are, mainly niche/prototypes.

The amount generated is typically very small, given the angles the surfaces present to the sun.

 

[Bavarianbrit]

A few are, mainly niche/prototypes.

The amount generated is typically very small, given the angles the surfaces present to the sun.

A startup in Munich were trying this one. Sion.

 

[mealiejimmy]

Maybe I'm missing something here - I'm not an electrical engineer - but why are the bodies of electric vehicles not made from photo-voltaic material? Especially off-road evs.

Because it's a waste of time and money.
A car covered in solar panels sitting the sun all day in the middle of a UK summer would put enough charge into an ev battery for it to travel no more than a couple of miles.
You'd get the same amount of range from 5 minutes on a 7KW home charger.

Cheers

Bruce

 

[jimmer.13]

Below I cut and pasted somebody else's thoughts and opinions from another forum
Clearly not a fan of Elon Musk and EVs and the Chicken Lickens convinced the sky is falling down,

Made me chuckle








A right royal cxxting, not only for the Tesla agent of evil but anyone else that buys into this electric car eco bullsxit.

Mr Musk will have you believe that lithium ion battery powered cars are the greenest driving solution and a major contributor to saving our planet. Neither are true.

Firstly, coal mining is like precision key hole surgery compared to mining lithium which is environmentally catastrophic.

The Environmental Impact of Lithium Batteries
(Link provided by Dr. Science himself, Night Admin – NA)

Secondly, the clue is in the name – lithium is a ‘rare metal’ and therefore not sustainable. Thirdly, charging your battery with electricity produced from coal fired power stations totally defeats the object.

Yet we are all being forced to adopt this flawed tech to save the planet. A colleague of mine visited a battery production plant in a remote part of China last year. He was advised to wear a face mask within 40km of the site as the air was so toxic.

Studies have proven that eco diesels, when all things considered, leave a lower carbon footprint. They are not the answer but neither are EVs. Hydrogen is the best option but the infrastructure is more expensive.

But Alan Musk’s incessant propaganda backed by the ignorance of Greta Turdburg ensures that eco warriors across the globe buy into this nonsense. Which means in 20 years time I wont be able to drive to Cornwall without stopping repeatedly to charge up which is unforgivable.

Not just eco cxnts. Holiday ruining cxnts.

 

[User00035]

He's right. Though Lithium could save the planet if it rendered humans irreversibly sterile. Hopefully something will be released soon that does.

 

[Bavarianbrit]

Just before I left Rolls Royce motors in 2018 I saw a proposal for the future changeover to EVs.

 

[BSAvale]

I have said it earlier in the thread...the future is electric, but that is some way off.

I drive a Diesel XC90...I have a new one coming this month but that will be the last one due to Volvo's push for electrification. That means I will most likely have to have a petrol version as my next car because of the cost to run the thing. ~40 miles at best on EV and then a relatively small petrol engine producing a lot of power (400BHP from a 2 litre) dragging around 500kg of battery will result in maybe 20mpg. I would also need to invest ~£700 ish on a future proofed charger for home and make sure I charge at home and at work, having changed electricity tariff at home to get cheaper charging.

Whereas the current diesels cars I get 42mpg, petrol I expect to get 35mpg ish - I don't have to worry about finding a charging point, whether someone is using it or range anxiety as the fossil fuel infrastructure is already there.

Until range is comparable to a tank of diesel (500-600 miles), charging speeds are much faster (infrastructure is the problem not technology) I will be sticking to ICE powered vehicles.

I have also said it before, lithium packs are not the answer...we need to get to solid state packs with a different chemistry without the reliance on precious metals and as said above we need a source of electricity which works - ie nuclear.

The British government continues to provide financial support to battery development and manufacturing in the UK which is good - I talk to them about such topics regularly, but in my view we need to give up trying to compete with established far eastern manufacturers with all of the advantages they have and pursue a new chemistry and become world leaders in the technology as we will never catch up no matter how much cash is thrown at the attempt. We have the most capable scientists and engineers in the world and we should be looking to lead a new industrial revolution from the UK and carefully protect the IP in doing so so that we can remain world leaders and not allow the Chinese to get a foothold in the market.