I'm staying well out of the rest of your post...
This is interesting though. As far as I know, these are the facts (and correct me if I am wrong):
- Many/most cases, especially in young people are asymptomatic/mild
- There is significantly more testing occurring now than in 'wave 1'
- At the moment, the infection rates are rising in most age groups, but more so in the young than the old.
- There is a time lag from rising infection rates to rising deaths.
- Medical treatment of severe Covid cases has massively improved since 'wave 1'.
If you agree with those, then surely the following would also be true?
- We are detecting many more cases than before, and most of these are being detected in the young. Because we are detecting more cases, we will by definition be detecting more mild cases that may have gone unnoticed before. Obviously, when only the more severely affected patients were being tested, more of those (as a proportion) would go on to need ICU treatment, and more (proportionally) would die.
-By increasing the number of positive results, but by decreasing the number of fatalities due to improved medical care, we are massively reducing the proportion of those that test positive that end up dead.
Now, I don't think anyone is saying that 'wave 2' is as bad as 'wave 1' was, but if you look at the graphs below you can see that there is an increase in daily deaths at the moment, it is about 3 weeks behind the rise in positive test results, and that proportionally there are less deaths per positive test for the reasons I have outlined above.
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On this occasion, I just think you are interpreting the data incorrectly.
Best,
HT