Any others cynical about a vaccine?
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Ade8mm
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Interesting article*
Vaccine Will Arrive Too Late
“Vaccine news” is certainly good and very welcome. However, do not get overly excited. Since the coronavirus emerged in January, almost 200 vaccine candidates have gone into development. Only 15 got to human trials, and there are no approvals for use. The odds of creating a successful vaccine are very low, and most vaccines fail before production.While Pfizer’s vaccine, so far, seems to be moving along the path, there are several things to consider. Foremost is that while Pfizer did announce the potential effectiveness of their vaccine, it is yet to be peer-reviewed or approved for use by the FDA. While the drug is on a “fast-track” for use by year-end for emergency use, it will not be available for widespread use anytime soon. To wit:
Furthermore, they are only in Phase-3 of their drug trials. As noted, a very high percentage of drugs fail in Stages 3 and 4. Pfizer will have to start Phase IV once the FDA approves the drug. That phase will incorporate testing the drug in limited use on several hundred or thousands of patients. This phase will take quite some time to accomplish, and if unknown side-effects appear, it could stop the production of the vaccine altogether.
*Send me a pm if you want the source of this article.
Prof Gupta reiterates the fact that all studies show that SARS-CoV-2 specific antibodies drop rapidly in populations post exposure.
That means measuring antibodies in any population is no measure of viral spread, nor can it be a barometer of herd immunity.
Crucially, the Biontech lead stated that they track antibody levels in those who have had their vaccine as the measure of efficacy. Şahin further stated that booster shots may be required if antibody levels wane.
Şahin does not know if those vaccinated cease to be contagious. [and if you do not cease to be potentially infectious, those labouring under the belief that lockdowns work will continue to beat that drum, mass vaccination or not]
So... the proposal in principle is to ante up $40 for each vaccine [which has to be stored -70˚ from lab-to-limb to remain effective] even though it may not stop you being a vector for the virus. Still, if a susceptible person has the jab they shouldn't succumb to the disease, unless their antibody decay is faster than the average and they are infected with SARS-CoV-2 before the seasonal "top-up".
Circling back to the sum of all herd immunity data we have so far [Oxford University data from Scotland, Santa Clara county, Sweden] , I have a far greater trust in the human body's natural selection of defense against SARS-CoV-2 than any vaccine offered to date. If SARS-CoV-2 provokes the same natural immune response as SARS did [2003], then the lasting defence may well be T-cell as per REACH data for that earlier epidemic.
None of the above is "anti-science". None of this is "anti-vaxxer". And the bacofoil remains in the draw until the next baked potato needs to nestle the campfire coals.
A reasonable assay of all data so far is that herd immunity for this corona virus is the same as any other. I remain cynical of the need for a vaccine for this virus, and specifically cautious about the Pfizer vaccine's net benefit. Not least because global CFR suggests its population has reached stasis without it.
That means measuring antibodies in any population is no measure of viral spread, nor can it be a barometer of herd immunity.
Crucially, the Biontech lead stated that they track antibody levels in those who have had their vaccine as the measure of efficacy. Şahin further stated that booster shots may be required if antibody levels wane.
Şahin does not know if those vaccinated cease to be contagious. [and if you do not cease to be potentially infectious, those labouring under the belief that lockdowns work will continue to beat that drum, mass vaccination or not]
So... the proposal in principle is to ante up $40 for each vaccine [which has to be stored -70˚ from lab-to-limb to remain effective] even though it may not stop you being a vector for the virus. Still, if a susceptible person has the jab they shouldn't succumb to the disease, unless their antibody decay is faster than the average and they are infected with SARS-CoV-2 before the seasonal "top-up".
Circling back to the sum of all herd immunity data we have so far [Oxford University data from Scotland, Santa Clara county, Sweden] , I have a far greater trust in the human body's natural selection of defense against SARS-CoV-2 than any vaccine offered to date. If SARS-CoV-2 provokes the same natural immune response as SARS did [2003], then the lasting defence may well be T-cell as per REACH data for that earlier epidemic.
None of the above is "anti-science". None of this is "anti-vaxxer". And the bacofoil remains in the draw until the next baked potato needs to nestle the campfire coals.
A reasonable assay of all data so far is that herd immunity for this corona virus is the same as any other. I remain cynical of the need for a vaccine for this virus, and specifically cautious about the Pfizer vaccine's net benefit. Not least because global CFR suggests its population has reached stasis without it.
More positive news on the vaccine front, thanks be to God....
www.thejournal.ie
Coronavirus: Vaccine from US company Moderna 94.5% effective, according to early data
Its clinical trial involves 30,000 participants.
www.thejournal.ie
Rasputin
Well-Known Member
Moderne ceo offloaded another **** ton of shares today roughly $83m.....
I know it’s been pre planned but this and the Pfizer guys are taking the mick now. This is all to convenient and frankly reeks of a pre planned release date for this vaccine and associated positive news. Imagine if the stock tanked in a few weeks because of a problem hitherto unknown they should be made to hold it till it’s certified imho. Between them and Musk it’s a miracle they don’t get done for insider trader.
I know it’s been pre planned but this and the Pfizer guys are taking the mick now. This is all to convenient and frankly reeks of a pre planned release date for this vaccine and associated positive news. Imagine if the stock tanked in a few weeks because of a problem hitherto unknown they should be made to hold it till it’s certified imho. Between them and Musk it’s a miracle they don’t get done for insider trader.
Redirect Notice
www.google.co.uk
Where did you get your figure of $83m from?
And how did you come up with the idea that they should be made hold onto their stocks until it's certified? How does that work in the real world?
Rasputin
Well-Known Member
I got that because I’m an idiot who was half asleep it’s 961k haha. However you can see he has been selling off regularly since July and its a pretty big number https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/m/moderna-inc-usd0.0001/director-deals hes sold a phenomenal amount this year which is unusual.
As for the second part of your question I was wholly tongue in cheek because it’s not feasible. But my point is we could set up SD Inc release a press statement saying we tested it on 1000 people got good results. Price shoots up , we knew when we were going to release the news have a pre placed sell order in get the bounce and then whomever buys it is left carrying the risk. If we did such speculating we would be in court but for some reason in the US they seem to get away with it. Well Elon musk got a slap on the wrists but that was it.
The mechanism behind both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is identical: mRNA used to instruct ribosomes to produce the SARS virus signature spike protein. In turn, the body then produces antibodies.
The Moderna claim to 94.5% efficacy seems to derive from their [shallow] sample. i.e. only five of those vaccinated went on to contract a [mild] form of C-19 compared to 90 in the control group. [COVE data]
If the two pharmaceutical houses' approach is functioningly identical, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are likely to provoke similar levels of antibodies, % claims notwitstanding. Rightly, commentators urge caution:
www.forbes.com
The Moderna claim to 94.5% efficacy seems to derive from their [shallow] sample. i.e. only five of those vaccinated went on to contract a [mild] form of C-19 compared to 90 in the control group. [COVE data]
If the two pharmaceutical houses' approach is functioningly identical, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are likely to provoke similar levels of antibodies, % claims notwitstanding. Rightly, commentators urge caution:
A Note Of Caution On Moderna’s Promising Covid-19 Vaccine News
Early and favorable Covid-19 vaccine trial results from Moderna are a hopeful sign but still no quick fix to the pandemic.
www.forbes.com
Here's a commentator that explains a bit about the new technology behind the vaccines, he seems to know what he is talking about...
www.breakingnews.ie
'This is unprecedented' - A look at the science behind Covid vaccines | BreakingNews
The new technology is crucial in Covid vaccine development
www.breakingnews.ie
kenbro
Well-Known Member
Very interesting that Pfizer’s Vaccine was touted as 90% effective on the 02-11-2020, now, after the America one was quoted at 94.5 % effective Pfizer claims theirs is now 95%! Mmm.
Ken.
It was originally stated to be over 90% effective, I would imagine the longer the trials go on for the more accurate the figures will be.
All these vaccines will prove to be 100% effective in their primary aim
To make profit
To make profit
That's the whole point of any business John.
Polio, MMR, Tetanus, Typhoid, yellow fever.... all have horrendous outcomes. Risk reward ratio - take the vaccine.
A disease which often presents zero symptoms, mainly those of a very bad flu when it does, and which is survived by 99.94% of those diagnosed is not sufficient risk reward.
Yes older and vulnerable people may die (but at a higher age than average death rate!).
A disease which often presents zero symptoms, mainly those of a very bad flu when it does, and which is survived by 99.94% of those diagnosed is not sufficient risk reward.
Yes older and vulnerable people may die (but at a higher age than average death rate!).
We arent on this planet forever and since most people on this site take life regularly, Im quite surprised at the lack of acceptance of inevitable mortality among some forum members.
Viruses get ONE good shot at widespread infection and kill off the infirm pretty quickly. If you survive contact your chances are fairly good.
Life is for living, not for imprisonment or other curtailment of liberty.
Viruses get ONE good shot at widespread infection and kill off the infirm pretty quickly. If you survive contact your chances are fairly good.
Life is for living, not for imprisonment or other curtailment of liberty.
So it's your position that, although we can do something such as develop vaccines which will save lives- we should do nothing and let people die.
Go back to the dark ages
Cheers
Bruce
Looks like the roll out of the vaccines is going to be expedited, great news.
www.independent.ie
Drug giants aim to speed up roll-out of successful vaccines
Pfizer and BioNTech could secure emergency US and European authorisation for their Covid-19 vaccine next month after final trial results showed it had a 95pc success rate and no serious side effects, the drugmakers said yesterday.
www.independent.ie
Rasputin
Well-Known Member
Given the long term economic harm and literally trillions spent on this there is a fairly decent argument for letting them die tbh. Realistically what do granny and grandpa who make up the bulk of deaths give back once they reach retirement age other than there retail consumption they burden the NHS, drain the pension system, clog up the housing market and horde money to hand down to kids. We have created a notion that we have fit and healthy 80 years when in fact they don't just have one foot in the grave they have already been measured up for the coffin.
Conversely millions of children die every year from food/water/poverty in SSA & other third world countries yet the outrage gets swept under the carpet because its a non western problem. Imagine the number of lives that could have been spent if those same trillions had been ploughed into the 3rd world. Its significantly higher impact in terms of volume than this Covid nonsense. (Parking aside pilfering officials in those states)
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