Leccy cars.

[mealiejimmy]

A few months ago the SMMT were telling us all how EV sales were driving the growth in the second-hand car market:

Used car market electrifying as EV sales soar in second quarter - SMMT

UK used car market grows 4.1% in Q2 2023, with more than 1.8 million units changing hands. Sales of used battery electric vehicles (BEVs) soar by 81.8%, accounting for record 1.7% market...

www.smmt.co.uk

What they didn't say was how much EV's were plummeting in value compared to ICE powered vehicles:

December marks fourth consecutive month of decline for used car prices

Retail used vehicle values fell by 5.6% on a year-on-year and like-for-like basis last month to £17,064, according to Auto Trader’s Retail Price Index.

www.fleetnews.co.uk

"Among fuel types, the average cost of a used electric vehicle (EV) was down 22.7% to £29,718 – continuing the trend of much larger falls than petrol (down 3.8% to £15,482 year-on-year) and diesel (falling 2.2% to £15,371)."

That makes it a good time to buy a used EV then

Cheers

Bruce

 

[JockStalk]

I have a big swede plug in hybrid. The extra weight of the batteries needs care as it affects handling in corners on ice/ snow. Very high torque and the battery power is pretty instant so you need care with the right foot.
Plugged in at home so the car is preheated before leaving, which helps.
Looking forward to replacing with a diesel land cruiser when the lease is up and the new model is online.
The tax reduction of the EV is nice but I’m not sold.

 

[willie_gunn]

That makes it a good time to buy a used EV then

Cheers

Bruce

Not if the prices continue to fall! It is depreciation on EV's that is the killer, particularly as they approach the need for a new battery.

 

[Apthorpe]

That makes it a good time to buy a used EV then

Cheers

Bruce

Only if we're at the bottom of the "plummet". I suspect that current EVs will be stranded assets as newer models with better technology come along. If it wasn't for the introduction of ULEZ type restrictions (as a one time boost), I don't think you'd be able to offload some previously popular models like a Nissan Leaf at all now.

 

[mealiejimmy]

I don't think you get this "it will need a new battery sometime" thing - because the vast majority won't
New electric cars typically come with an 8 year warranty on the battery - and the warranty is that if within 8 years the battery capacity drops by more than 20%, they will fit a new battery for free
There are plenty electric cars more than 8 years old which have battery capacities still more than 90% of their new capacities
Even if the capacity drops to 79% the day after the 8 years are up, it means that an electric car with a "new" range of 300 miles will still be capable of 240 miles
The average age of scrapped cars in the UK is 16 years so if the battery loses 20% of its capacity in the first 8 years and another 20% in the second 8 years, the car will still have a range of almost 200 miles on the day is goes for scrap
The rate at which a battery loses capacity can be strongly influenced by how it is used and where it is used
Repeated rapid charging 50kW or faster degrades the battery more quickly than charging at slower rates like the 7kW available from home chargers
The battery degrades faster in hot climates (not applicable to the UK)
The battery degrades faster if it is repeatedly charged right up to 100% and discharged to 0%
The market dictates the value of used cars, chemistry dictates how long the battery will last

Cheers

Bruce

 

[JockStalk]

If you tow, drive long distances, tow medium distances they are a poor proposition.

The current head banging tax regime means I can benefit from super low benefit in kind rates for a plug in hybrid as its ’climate friendly’

My diesel rangie towed at 34mpg and my petrol plug in hybrid tows at 21mpg. Albeit the first 18 miles of the last 4200 mile trip were on the battery…..

It’s a funny old world we live in.

 

[Apthorpe]

I don't think you get this "it will need a new battery sometime" thing - because the vast majority won't

They will be scrapped. Probably much earlier than ICE cars.

New electric cars typically come with an 8 year warranty on the battery - and the warranty is that if within 8 years the battery capacity drops by more than 20%, they will fit a new battery for free
There are plenty electric cars more than 8 years old which have battery capacities still more than 90% of their new capacities

There is a gap of significance between these statements where an appreciable risk of a very large bill lies.

Even if the capacity drops to 79% the day after the 8 years are up, it means that an electric car with a "new" range of 300 miles will still be capable of 240 miles

Assuming that after 8 years, the drivetrain and the rest of the car are still in 100% condition. A spurious assumption, I'd suggest.

The average age of scrapped cars in the UK is 16 years so if the battery loses 20% of its capacity in the first 8 years and another 20% in the second 8 years, the car will still have a range of almost 200 miles on the day is goes for scrap

Is there a sound basis to presume that the decay in battery capacity is linear?

The average age of scrapped cars may be 16 years now, but it is not necessarily going to be 16 yrs for EVs. Suppose the EV becomes uneconomic or redundant when the battery is 75%. Let's face it, nobody is looking at EVs now and saying that have 30% too much range. Then the car is scrapped at 10 years or so, which has major implications for the market as a whole, and a large economic effect.

However, assuming the validity of what you say, there are still significant problems. Generalising, rich people drive new cars and poorer people drive older cars. This will naturally create a gradient whereby poorer people are made less mobile and carry greater risks of catastrophically large garage bills. There are social and economic implications which people ignored. Prior to all this, a person of modest means could easily buy a car for £2k which would last five years of motoring with perhaps a large bill or two, but nothing unmanageable. That car would be functionally identical in capability as a rich person's new car, and they would have basically the same mobility for work purposes. That is going to disappear, and many people and lots of tradespeople will not be able to work as they do now. There is a lot of head in the sand about this.

The rate at which a battery loses capacity can be strongly influenced by how it is used and where it is used
Repeated rapid charging 50kW or faster degrades the battery more quickly than charging at slower rates like the 7kW available from home chargers
The battery degrades faster in hot climates (not applicable to the UK)
The battery degrades faster if it is repeatedly charged right up to 100% and discharged to 0%

I would hazard a guess that the battery might degrade faster if it is driven harder than it is in the test cycles on which these statistics are composed?

The market dictates the value of used cars, chemistry dictates how long the battery will last

Surely, what you've said before this contradicts that? Usage dictates how long the battery will last?

Cheers

Bruce

 

[jthyttin]

on ice/ snow. Very high torque

Not directed at you, this was just the latest comment on the matter.

Actually it's quite the opposite, electronics can handle with the torque quite well, even better than with petrol since also torque (in addition to brakes) can be adjusted fast.

But since Mr. Musk / Tesla didn't manage to implement a clutch in the first EV generation that really took off, most if not all manufacturers went that route also. So any motor has zero torque at zero RPM, and since there's no clutch the electronics will need to drive the wheels at some speed.

Same goes for towing, most electric vehicles have laughable towing weights since they cannot pull the weight at specified uphill % from deadstart, as required in most nations.

I've understood some EV with clutch and gearbox have or at least are about to surface, not that I care. There are nice things about electric drive but since electricity storage is so hard / expensive we will go back to combustion engine (with fuels that are seemingly "eco-friendly" and yet another bloke puts the public money in his own pocket with the help of politicians).

 

[jthyttin]

And for longer journeys…..

This. Here in Finland e.g. winter holidays when people drive 1000km from south to north and back, are nightmare for EV owners. Everybody wants to use the rapid charge facilities at once etc. so it's just not possible. Separating battery ownership / hire from the vehicles would solve this, but it would need more batteries on massive scale (natural resources like lithium running out even with current pace), cost is unimaginable etc.

 

[jthyttin]

In Canada, where temperatures of -40C and below are not uncommon in winter, they plug their ICE vehicles into the mains to keep the oil warm enough to allow the engine to turn over.

And in Finnish Lapland, mostly with proper motors from yesteryear, it was common practice to drain both coolant and motor oil if you e.g. worked a week at remote location with no or restricted (or questionable) electrics. Before leaving for weekly run for groceries etc. you'd heat them both on stove, fill back in and off you go.

For shorter stays like overnight you might just leave the motor running. Especially in military etc. whereyou're not directly paying for the fuel from your own pocket.

One practice is put a charcoal grill under the oil pan of tractor, if for some reason you need to start it up and don't have means or time to heat it up with electricity. Beware of oil drippings though...

 

[willie_gunn]

Even if the capacity drops to 79% the day after the 8 years are up, it means that an electric car with a "new" range of 300 miles will still be capable of 240 miles
The average age of scrapped cars in the UK is 16 years so if the battery loses 20% of its capacity in the first 8 years and another 20% in the second 8 years, the car will still have a range of almost 200 miles on the day is goes for scrap

EV batteries are considered to have reached end of life when their State of Health (SoH) reaches 70%.

Using your figures that means that when 12 years old the battery will effectively be written off, although most experts would suggest that 10 years is a more realistic figure.

A 10-12 year car life doesn't sound terribly "green" to me.

 

[jthyttin]

the secret to owning an EV

The secret of owning an EV in Norway is huge subsidies in taxes, road tolls, fees and other incentives.

Norwegian oil fund alone has like 1.4 billion Euros (trillion for Americans) buffer so they can in the end do anything that pleases them and carry on. That's 250k per citizen.

 

[JTO]

When a battery has dropped to say 80% capacity, does is only cost 80% of when it had 100% capacity to charge it?

 

[ruffapuffa]

Pretty sure the Chicago problem was a combination of factors such as broken stations, payment issues and the cold affecting the working of the stations internal workings, not really issues with the cars themselves. I have a Plug in Hybrid which I think is a great solution in current circumstances and I have no desire to go all electric at this point.

 

[mealiejimmy]

When a battery has dropped to say 80% capacity, does is only cost 80% of when it had 100% capacity to charge it?

The short answer is yes.
The cost to charge an EV battery depends on how many units (kilowatthours) of electricity you put into it and the cost per unit of that electricity
If you have new EV with a 50kWh (kilowatthour) battery, you can, in principle put up to 50kWh of electricity into it an pay for 50 units of electricity at whatever the price per unit is at the place where the car is being charged (home charging is almost always the cheapest)
If, over time the battery capacity drops by 20%, then the capacity of the battery is now 40kWh so you can now only put 40kWh into the battery and only pay for 40kWh of electricity

Cheers

Bruce

 

[Smellydog]

It doesn't matter how long a battery can last in an EV because if it gets bumped it's scrap anyway! Well I say scrap, it's actually a blight on the environment because they can't be scraped.
The common man's terminology is " they're a pile o shite mate".

 

[Smellydog]

If you have new EV with a 50kWh (kilowatthour) battery, you can, in principle put up to 50kWh of electricity into it an pay for 50 units of electricity at whatever the price per unit is at the place where the car is being charged

Are you sure? I think you will find a 50kWh battery needs more than 50 units to charge it up fully. As the resistance increases so does the necessary current to charge it increases.

 

[jthyttin]

The cost to charge an EV battery depends on how many units (kilowatthours) of electricity you put into it and the cost per unit of that electricity

And with most commercial charging stations, the "wall clock time" your car spends connected to station. So e.g. at parking lots with charging stations, majority of the cost might come from the time you're not charging at all.

And with batteries lower than nominal capacity, the charge might take longer time and you usually want to charge to higher percentage of the remaining capacity. Many batteries would benefit from something like 20-40% to 80% charging cycle, and many commercial charging station adds are also based on that kind of figures.

Problem is, if you're already down 20% b/c of battery degradation, charging to 80% will only leave 64% or thereabouts of original capacity. This will increase the charging cycles for every user, and for some users the vehicle will become unusable or risky since the range is significantly less than they read from the original advertisement.

Plug-in users not so affected, they can always drive with petrol and still get the lower taxes, enter lower emission zones etc. since emissions are the same as previous on paper... (of course emission thing might not be relevant everywhere)

 

[mealiejimmy]

They're a "pile o shite mate" would be a more accurate statement about the horse that pre-dated cars and taxis than it is about EVs

Cheers

Bruce

 

[Heym SR20]

EVs actually predate internal combustion engines!

Where an EV makes sense, is for the short sorts of journeys that the vast majority of motorists undertake. Driving a few miles dropping the kids at school, driving to work, going to the shops and most of this is done is suburban and city areas. A 150 to 200 mile range is more than adequate and you don’t need a big truck for such duties. A little polo, Fiat 500 or a Golf sized vehicle is probably more than adequate. No reason why such a sized vehicle cannot be made comfortable for larger people - but many are not.

I would suggest that most on the SD would not be represented by the above. A truck or SUV is more likely to fill our needs. And such vehicles inevitably use a lot of energy, much more than a smaller vehicle, regardless of how they are powered.