Taken from a recent online aricle
If you are undecided about which way to vote on the 23rd, I heard a couple of things at a seminar this morning which might be of interest...
Firstly, I haven't read much in the media debate about the mechanics of a UK exit. It's all a bit 'we have to leave to protect our borders'. Or 'we have to stay to protect the economy'. What I hadn't realised until this morning is that if we vote to leave, the mechanics of withdrawal are horrendously complicated (unsurprisingly).
The mechanism under which we'd exit (Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union) is 17 words long (one of the people who drafted it was on the panel of speakers and he admitted that the drafts-people never expected it to be invoked). Once we've sent our letter to Europe saying that we're off, we'd have two years to negotiate our withdrawal. The problem (apart from the fact that two years is no time at all to unravel our participation in Europe), is that Article 50 is only an exit agreement. It doesn't make any provision AT ALL about how we then negotiate our new relationship with Europe from the outside.
In fact, legally, Europe CANNOT negotiate a new relationship with us until we're a third country ie the two years have passed. So while we can have some informal, closed-door conversations during that two-year period, we can't begin to put anything formal in place until we're out on our own. When we've finally managed to negotiate our new deal with Europe after those 2 years, a lot of the terms of that deal will have to be ratified by all of the remaining 27 Member States. And experience tells us that ratification could take 7-8 years. So it struck me that we might be in a weird sort of limbo for a whole decade, which doesn't sound too good.
Secondly, if we do end up having to negotiate a new relationship with Europe from the outside, we will obviously be pushing for it to include all the things we want - access to the single market, free trade etc (all that 'good stuff'). But we're not going to get that for free. We'll have to make concessions. And the things which we're most likely to have to concede on are going to be the things which seem to be driving the Leave campaign (primarily, 'close the borders'). There's a strong chance we'll have to concede on free movement of people.
So we'd be in the same position we're in at the moment except that we'd be on the outside looking in, instead of having a seat at the table with the decision-makers.
I really hope we stay!
I find it curious that the 'IN' crowd think that we are somehow strong enough to take a lead position in the EU but too weak to stand alone
The genie has been let out of the bottle with this referendum, chaos has already started, hatred, division and xenophobia (almost outright racism) is a result. One should perhaps be careful what one wishes for. Every single brexit vote is a vote for the ultra right wing of the Tory party. If brexit wins then I think it will be impossible to stop the Johnsons, Goves, Smiths, Farages etc. from taking over the Tories, and they have 4 years left to run. How many voters would have voted for this pack of .... in an election?
A ensuing breakup of the UK will possibly be hard to stop.
A buffoon of a PM called Johnson, a "British" (but soon perhaps only English) government who's only strategy is to blame immigration and the EU for everything that they themselves have caused, an idiot of a US president called Trump, a surge in right wing nationalism across large parts of the world and a Putin just waiting for his chance.
Against this, all that is wrong with the momentary status quo (and much is wrong) will seem like a childrens birthday party.
Whatever way it cuts, Osbourne has definitely blown any chance he thought he had of becoming the next Tory leader.Didn't know Angela Merkel was a member of the forum
Of course one could just as accurately (and unverifiably) reverse your statement vis...
"I find it curious that the "OUT" crowd think that we are somehow strong enough to stand alone but too weak to take a lead position in the EU"
Of course I recognised the juxta position that could be taken from my earlier statement
However - though strong enough to take a lead role in the EU - its institutions have shown themselves incapable of the changes that would suit us
Do we want to be a lead member of an insane asylum ?
I also differentiate between the 'cultures of various nations' and that of the EU which is an undemocratic political parasite that has attached itself to the EEC concept which was was actually sold to us
Finally
Opinion seems to be partly informed by a fear of a right wing Gov here. Some IN'ers are attracted to a larger socialist leaning state.
Strangely we probably all fear right wing Capitalist control by Multinationals - but just look who is favor of our sacrificing ourselves at the alter of the common good !
I fear the EU un-elected lizards that slither around the halls of Brussels have already sold out to those very same multinationals who stand to gain enormously by depressing wages.
I also fear for the industrial working class in this country who can look forwarded to a generation of outrageous rental costs, no hope of owning a home and depressed wages to little over the bread line
Turkeys and Christmas
Finally
Opinion seems to be partly informed by a fear of a right wing Gov here. Some IN'ers are attracted to a larger socialist leaning state.
I fear the EU un-elected lizards that slither around the halls of Brussels have already sold out to those very same multinationals who stand to gain enormously by depressing wages.
Turkeys and Christmas
I'm an in, but I very much share the sentiments in this article.
Dont want to Leave but hate the idea of Remain? I have the ideal solutionÂ*
We should and can become the leading nation in Europe and make it work for us and be the natural conduit to the rest of the world.
"within a generation the UK will have a bigger population and bigger economy than Germany"
But we will still have the same landmass! When will people realise...
Did you read the article? I though the point being made regarding the bigger population was to do with the balance of political power within the EU rather than overcrowding our resources.
"...Germany had a plan. It unfolded in three astounding manoeuvres: 1) the reunited Germany to have the biggest population in Europe; 2) EU voting to be changed (as it was at the Treaty of Nice) to reflect population weight; and 3) the voting threshold to pass EU law was to be reduced (as it was at the Treaty of Lisbon)...."
Alan
Did you mean by US - the USA as the leaders due to the special relationship?
Like Harold Wilson reportedly was secretly discussing to join the USA as the 51st state in the early 60s.
Of course one could just as accurately (and unverifiably) reverse your statement vis...
"I find it curious that the "OUT" crowd think that we are somehow strong enough to stand alone but too weak to take a lead position in the EU"
However, I for one do not see it in those terms at all.
With Britain as a major contributor to the "culture" of the EU I also cannot see the diametrically opposed aspects you speak of. We have far more in common with other Western European Democratic Industrial Nations culturally than any body else.
Further
My own view is based not on the negative or selfish aspects of finance and loss of sovereignty but on the positive ones of cooperation with our neighbours. What is best for both ourselves and the other EU members. What is good for all of us as Europeans, not just the UK.
With our traditional allies urging us to stay in, one could project the opposite wish onto those with whom we do not share interests.
In whose interests do you suppose a weakened EU is?..Certainly not Britain's.
Alan