Any others cynical about a vaccine?

[zambezi]

are you saying that 90% of people didn't know they had the disease, and because 90% of vaccine recipients didn't get the disease, you are equating the two? If so, that's incorrect, as there is very little chance that Pfizer will have looked them over, said 'can you smell this? taste this? no cough? Great, off you go'. They will have been tested.

Or are you saying that 90% of people who had the virus developed an immune response, which would be the same as the vaccine, but I honestly don't know if it is true or not. If you do have that information, I'd love to see it.

Tested means RT-PCR test +ve and relevant antigens present in serology, I presume?

There cannot be an absolutely knowable number of those infected with the virus but not requiring medical intervention. But using CFR and ICU admissions as a % of populace, it must be high 90s.

Circling back to the fact that the virus has been round the world and back, that huge number of people not requiring medical intervention either developed immunity or it is unrequired n[natural defenses sufficient].

That seems to amount to the same thing. I.e. most rebuff this virus, by whatever response, so the vaccine is not required.

Whitty stated the vaccine relies on herd immunity. Its deployment merely accelerates that natural effect.

If 90% garnered that status without the vaccine [not an unreasonable extrapolation of the sum of known data] then I cannot see a rationale for its mass deployment.

 

[Freeforester]

They're saying that immunity doesn't appear to last that long and you can get reinfection.

To quote Mandy Rice-Davis... from what I've read/determined from learned scientific sources the incidence of reinfection is vanishingly small, and probably lower than incidences of numbers of folk who have been infected and happen to have defective immunity response mechanisms

 

[zambezi]

Also, being very simple about it, if you give Covid to some people that have and haven't had the vaccine, looking to see who actually gets the disease and who doesn't, this is the most fundamental marker of success. According to them 90% who have had the vaccine don't get the disease.

How they tell that, I'm not totally sure, but I would guess at measuring both antigen (virus) and antibody levels.

That seems to be what the paper declares.

Circling back to Dr Campbell's evaluation of REACT data plus the findings of the Karolinska Instituet, we have three statements:

• REACT data showed that antibody levels drop over time
• REACT data showed that SARS T-cell immunity was present in 100% of persons 17 years post infection
• Karolinska study revealed that SARS-CoV-2 T-cell behaviour in Swedish populace more prevalent than antibodies

If the Pfizer vaccine does not provoke the T-cell response [they are not testing for that AFAICS], then is there a prophylactic time-limit?

 

[Hell Toupee]

Tested means RT-PCR test +ve and relevant antigens present in serology, I presume?

PCR -ve i.e virus cleared, antibody +ve i.e immune response present.

There cannot be an absolutely knowable number of those infected with the virus but not requiring medical intervention. But using CFR and ICU admissions as a % of populace, it must be high 90s.
Circling back to the fact that the virus has been round the world and back, that huge number of people not requiring medical intervention either developed immunity or it is unrequired n[natural defenses sufficient].
That seems to amount to the same thing. I.e. most rebuff this virus, by whatever response, so the vaccine is not required.
Whitty stated the vaccine relies on herd immunity. Its deployment merely accelerates that natural effect.
If 90% garnered that status without the vaccine [not an unreasonable extrapolation of the sum of known data] then I cannot see a rationale for its mass deployment.

Lets assume that the figure of 90% is correct, and lets take the current estimate that 51 million people have had the virus. Now, lets assume that this 51 million is only 10% of the true number of cases (90% symptomatic/mild right?) so that's in the region of half a billion possible cases so far. The current world population is about 7.8 billion, so that leaves (currently, ish...) 7.3 billion people who have not had the virus. Lets take the current CFR at about 1% (I am making all of these numbers favourable to having fewer overall cases/deaths - so I can't be accused of 'worst case doomsaying') that means that if no vaccine was produced, and the virus did spread to everyone on earth (unlikely, but this is a theoretical discussion after all), that would leave 78 million dead. Now even if I am a factor of 10 out, if this vaccine speeds up herd immunity and saves 7.8 million lives - yes, I think that's worth doing.

Right, I've got to get on. Have a good evening.

HT

 

[Hell Toupee]

That seems to be what the paper declares.

Circling back to Dr Campbell's evaluation of REACT data plus the findings of the Karolinska Instituet, we have three statements:

• REACT data showed that antibody levels drop over time
• REACT data showed that SARS T-cell immunity was present in 100% of persons 17 years post infection
• Karolinska study revealed that SARS-CoV-2 T-cell behaviour in Swedish populace more prevalent than antibodies

If the Pfizer vaccine does not provoke the T-cell response [they are not testing for that AFAICS], then is there a prophylactic time-limit?

T cells and antibodies are intricately and inseparably linked. But I don't know enough about the mechanism of the vaccine to provide anything more. We will have to wait for the full findings to be published.

I would however, humbly suggest, that there is currently no-one on earth that is 17 years post Covid infection!!

Out.

HT

 

[zambezi]

lets take the current estimate that 51 million people have had the virus. Now, lets assume that this 51 million is only 10% of the true number of cases (90% symptomatic/mild right?) so that's in the region of half a billion possible cases so far.

How was this figure established?

I recall that Oxford University estimated that SARS-CoV-2 had reached two thirds of the British public before the 16th March 2020 lockdown. That would be 44m in the U.K. alone.

As ever, it is computer modelling based on best estimates re R0 and behaviours.

It may well be that that estimation was a little high. But 51m also looks unlikely given the springboard the military games in China gave the virus in summer 2019 married to 8 months unfettered international travel thereafter.

 

[zambezi]

I would however, humbly suggest, that there is currently no-one on earth that is 17 years post Covid infection!!

I said SARS, not SARS-CoV-2. The REACT data clearly shows that SARS survivors have retained their T-cell immunity since 2003.

SARS and SARS-CoV-2 are 86% same genetically. REACT's data showed that SARS survivors are immune to SARS-CoV-2.

 

[willie_gunn]

How was this figure established?

I recall that Oxford University estimated that SARS-CoV-2 had reached two thirds of the British public before the 16th March 2020 lockdown. That would be 44m in the U.K. alone.

As ever, it is computer modelling based on best estimates re R0 and behaviours.

It may well be that that estimation was a little high. But 51m also looks unlikely given the springboard the military games in China gave the virus in summer 2019 married to 8 months unfettered international travel thereafter.

It’s the official number of Covid cases reported globally: COVID-19 situation update worldwide, as of 10 November 2020

 

[EMcC]

I must apologise to the more Medically educated members of this site for the mistake I made when referring to thalidomide as a cure for Polio.
I was under the impression it was, only because I read in the newspapers reference to it when reporting babies born without arms or legs or other deformities.
So as it stands, I do not know which drug it was that ladies were given on the understanding that it was beneficial in some way and it turned out it wasn't.
So going back to the original topic, my opinion is that it will take a few years to absolutely certain there are no side effects after taking this new vaccine.
Interestingly tho, having read some of the corrections to my reference to thalidomide, it was mentioned that it is still being used in the treatment of cancer.
Having just finished a period of Chemo, I was told the dose contained a poison of sorts and how it works on the elements of my blood, I am glad it is still being used.

I have just read these posts again and thank you Dalua and Apthorpe for correcting my misunderstanding of my reference to Thalimamide and Polio in such a polite way. Bryan DC not so polite and the use of foul language was not appreciated

 

[windygun]

Well this was fun!!!!

 

[User00040]

If anyone who is on the puritanical 'non-lead/non-toxic bullets only for deer and ban all lead ammo while you are at it' bandwagon, and is also an anti-vaxxer, please let me know so I can add you to ignore.

 

[20-250]

What on earth are the loons going to spout about when this virus is defeated? Price of tin foil for hats?

 

[User00035]

The next virus. They won't have long to wait.

 

[Rasputin]

The next virus. They won't have long to wait.

Literally beat me too it. Give it 12 months till we are all wearing masks again and locked down.

 

[glasshalffull]

To quote Mandy Rice-Davis... from what I've read/determined from learned scientific sources the incidence of reinfection is vanishingly small, and probably lower than incidences of numbers of folk who have been infected and happen to have defective immunity response mechanisms

Hopefully this is correct.

 

[zambezi]

It’s the official number of Covid cases reported globally: COVID-19 situation update worldwide, as of 10 November 2020

That is a measure of those who have had a +ve RT-PCR test, not the number who have been exposed.

The world did zero testing for the first year of viral circulation.

And whilst testing in the west is extensive, it is not 100%.

Logic [and Oxford University modelling] suggest a far higher distribution of the virus.

Locally, anecdotal evidence is that covid rattled through North Devon in January 2020. Many of us had the precise symptoms attributed to C-19. Yet stats would not show that.

 

[Finbarn]

I hope there is clear & compelling information released to demonstrate that the vaccine is safe & effective & to dispel any dangerous conspiracy theories that will inevitably follow the news of a vaccine being produced.

Regardless of who’s at highest risk & how bad having this disease is or isn’t, there’s no denying it’s caused a massive worldwide clusterf**k that has impacted everyone & put this country into unimaginable debt & disruption.

The sooner this is brought to an end the better so the world can return to normality, people go back to work & the economy start recovering. I have my fingers firmly crossed this vaccine proves to be the start of the end of this madness.

 

[zambezi]

The sooner this is brought to an end the better so the world can return to normality, people go back to work & the economy start recovering

The hope and desire of us all.

ICL's data modelling for SARS, Ebola and now SARS-CoV-2 have been taken as the gold standard for disease prognosis, and thus politicians have been limited in their options.

The world convulsed when the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus appeared. We seem to have overreacted and thrown the baby out with the bathwater.

Regardless of the efficacy of any covid vaccine tomorrow or next year, there will be other novel viruses in the years ahead.

I do not think that a vaccine is the fix required to achieve normality. Rather we need a shift in mindset.

The world has lived with four other corona viruses for a long time. We have herd immunity from those.

 

[Freeforester]

Presumably there is little to no advantage in vaccination of those who have already tested positive but are no longer considered to be infectious, given the immunity they will have built, or is this incorrect?

 

[mealiejimmy]

Remind us of yours please?

I make no claims of expertise - it's Zambezi who is questioning the science.

Cheers

Bruce