The other way around, I think you mean. Truss has whacked 5% off inflation expectations and the BoE have been scandalously complacent about inflation.You're missing the point which is the BOE and the Truss government are running opposite agendas the former trying to curb inflation the later trying to stoke inflation
‘Mini’ budget
- Thread starter Mungo
- Start date
You’re usually good at fairly accurately predicting how things will turn out.
How do you see this going?
High interest rates on top of the current significant price rises of just about everything especially fuel and energy will be the nail in the coffin for many, mortgage defaults will increase we will see again people/families losing their homes and a deeper recession so possibly that is why the BoE has been scandalously complacent about inflation.
Still think interest rises are a blunt instrument to control inflation when the root cause of the inflation is not due to out of control pay rises but due to circumstances outside the control of the people or government of this country.
But then economic’s were never my strong point,
The markets have spoken, this mini budget was a disaster! But yet this incompetent government refuse to you turn. The problem with the tories at the moment, is that to be in cabinet now, you have to have supported Brexit, which excludes all the sensible people from power.
A delegation from the UK government visited a Ukrainian orphanage this morning, "it was devastating to see their faces, it's blatantly obvious that their once proud country is ruined and will take decades to rebuild. Aid is urgently needed and we will not be found wanting when it comes to donating to the cause" a spokesperson for the orphans said.
thorneyglatt
Well-Known Member
You don't like the UK, do you ?
I love it, I was over there at the end of July and will be going back again very soon and have a family break on a canal barge booked early in the new year. The wife and kids have been over there on 3 separate occasions since I got back.
I’m seriously considering investing in some property there, once the dust settles after this joke of a mini budget I’m hoping prices will drop by 15-20% and I’ll throw a few more bob into the economy to help get things back on track.
Do you like it yourself?
Well, I'm not sure I buy the narrative /feeble excuse that inflation is all due to external events outside the control of our state apparatus. In Switzerland and Japan, inflation is no higher than 4%. Inflation is the consequence of earlier bad policy. Electricity prices are as high as they are because of bad energy policy. We should have had at least twice as much nuclear power by now, renewable pricing contracts should not have been left open to excessive charging, especially because of the vast subsidies we paid for them. Putin's arsing around should never have happened because Obama and Biden should never have given him clear green lights that they wouldn't do much to stop him. QE went on far too long (idiot Carney), and the Bank of England sat around playing fairy tales for a year after it became clear that excess stimulus (Sunak) has set off a major bout of inflation.
Interest rates aren't that bad as a form of control, the blunt tools are the committee which sets them - partly appointed out of wokery and partly institutional mediocrity.
In which case we'll be looking forward to receiving timely and significant financial aid from Ireland.
See my previous post and keep the faith.
All of this probably isn't helped by the fact that many took loans through covid with no intention of paying it back. That money would have had to come from somewhere thus leaving I'd imagine a large hole to refi
Tricky to call, because in fact this is a storm in a teacup. Long term, this is a complete non event. The tax cuts are small, the market already knew about the energy price cap and it is not out of line with other countries, and the quality of forecasts mean it is impossible to say that it presents any credible risk.
I'm more worried about the quality of the Bank of England than Truss/Kwarteng. Truss cannot be as stupid as she is made out to be and casual sexism aside must be moderately able. Kwarteng is absolutely outstandingly intelligent and able. Doesn't guarantee he's correct, but any argument relying on the idea that he is clueless, out of his depth or reckless must be categorically wrong.
There are elements talking up a massive feeding frenzy for reasons of either political enmity/ media entertainment/sheer stupidity or standing to gain from easy momentum trades during a panic. Leaving the politics out of it, the behaviour of the BBC is extraordinarily reckless. It is by no means the worst offender, but it is a national broadcaster and is taken seriously abroad. In that light, they ought to be seeking serious considered comment from serious individuals, rather than some of the dross they have been headlining. There has certainly been no serious attempt at impartiality nor at objectivity or context. This evening's feed had a relatively junior analyst from an online stockbroker answering questions like a radio 5 live phone in. Completely out of his depth and not given the chance to think before typing. Yesterday they headlined the opinion of someone from a tiny firm of no obvious quality that nobody had ever heard of. Etc.
I can't decide if it's already blowing over (the rational outcome, pending hearing the other half of the plan in November),
.....or if the feeding frenzy will become a self-fulfilling disaster. Which is not the correct outcome, but once enough lemmings jump off a cliff there's bound to be a messy pile below. It's a classic panic and there is no rationality at work, anything could happen. Nothing should happen.
Foxyboy43
Well-Known Member
Ah well now, sure one good turn……
Last of Ireland’s UK bailout loans repaid but debt keeps rising
Ireland has made the final repayment in £3.23bn of emergency loans provided by the UK government as part of the 2010 bailout.
www.independent.ie
glasshalffull
Well-Known Member
One reason for North of Ireland
Yes yes trying to multi task whilst typing isn't one of my strengths, cooking venison sausages for tea to feed the two hungry teenagers getting off the bus from school. Think they'll be eating venison, duck rabbit and pheasants much much more this year and next
glasshalffull
Well-Known Member
To finish my sentence, one more reason for Northern Ireland to ditch the £ for the € if you get my drift? Joking of courseOne reason for North of Ireland
Yes yes trying to multi task whilst typing isn't one of my strengths, cooking venison sausages for tea to feed the two hungry teenagers getting off the bus from school. Think they'll be eating venison, duck rabbit and pheasants much much more this year and next
Good for them. My sprog (girl 6) demands venison steak (rare) pretty much every day in at least adult-sized servings. Second choice pigeon. Being unable to afford supermarket meat would be a big plus for her.One reason for North of Ireland
Yes yes trying to multi task whilst typing isn't one of my strengths, cooking venison sausages for tea to feed the two hungry teenagers getting off the bus from school. Think they'll be eating venison, duck rabbit and pheasants much much more this year and next
indeed, but all water under the bridge now, we are where we are, import costs around treble what they were pre BREXIT, cost of containers around treble the price, global fuel costs all pushing up import costs of the food and goods we buy. Will increasing the interest rate wind back the clock? or bring down the import costs, I think not.
Inflation will fall when the increases drop out of the RPI basket 12months on.
Hi Liz.
Don't think so. BoE have been slow out the gate on inflation right enough but LT/KK are trying to stimulate growth at the same time as BoE are trying to use interest rates to slow the economy.
KK's genius has been to announce a £45bn tax give away that has required a ~£65bn indemnity from the Treasury to the BoE within days. Some give away. All because he was too arrogant to outline his plans in full and get the OBR to run the ruler over it. Probably because he didn't have a plan, eh. Otherwise why is it going to take 8 weeks to announce it? Queue panic as there is plenty of evidence of conflicting monetary and fiscal policy yet a complete lack of an explanation of how that fits into a wider plan.
"Kwarteng is outstandingly intelligent and able" "Truss cannot be as stupid as she is made out to be". You sir are delusional, the evidence is in front of you. Unlike the PM and Chancellor of Exchequer who seem to have other things to do than calm the panic or indeed reassure their electorate as to why this is all sensible and they are not in fact a couple of idiots.
Nearly bankrupted the pension funds in under a week. They will go down in history as the most incompetent government in history. The only reason they are still there is that The Tories would look even more stupid if they binned them in weeks.
Trying to tell us this chaos is not their fault just makes them look more stupid.
Corbyn is no longer there so people are not afraid to vote Labour anymore. That is where this is going
Similar threads
