Satellite flyers, soooo frustrating!

[A Guy Out West]

Attached is a target which illustrates my frustration. Tikka SV in .300 WM, 178 gr. Hornady ELDX, 76-79 gr. Of Ramshot Grand. Of the 4, 3 shot groups, 3 of the groups had 2 bullets in the same hole all 4 groups had a flyer. Thoughts? I don’t know which shot was the flyer, if it’s the 3rd shot, I would assume barrel heat. I’ll have to retest and observe which round is the flyer. Could this be a bedding issue? I’m thinking bedding or barrel heat. Of note, the Ramshot Grand seems to be very accurate, produces minimal heat, burns clean, and cleans out the copper fouling. I have not tested the velocities yet but will do so when the rains stop. I think it’s a winner.

 

[WalkedUp]

Frustrating. As a control you could shoot your shots individually onto a matrix of three separate bulls with a grid background. Three bulls, first shot left bull, third shot right bull. Repeat for a few “ungrouped” groups and compare them. Not as satisfying as having them go into the same hole but it should give some clarity on the flyer issue.

 

[Utectok]

Basically it’s almost inevitable that you will get two closer and one further in a three shot group. They really mean absolutely zero about your overall rifle ammunition capabilities. Shoot a few ten shot groups then you might learn something. Preferably 20-30 shot groups and you will find a very even distribution of dispersion that may be as up to 60% larger than your three shot group in all probability. That’s real life though and worth knowing!

 

[jcampbellsmith]

Use an electronic target.
Regards
JCS

 

[ejg]

Try a different primer.

 

[bbell]

I would shoot a 10 shot group and see what it looks like. Your groups appear just over 1 moa which is good and won’t be an issue for shooting a long ways out.

 

[Outback]

Why would you want to waste barrel life with groups when you have a load that works ?
In real terms hunting or target shooting you would be using one round at a time .

 

[HonestJohn]

It’s a relatively heavy hitter

Could be driver error on the third shot quite simply. A fourth might be even worse, assuming the outlier is the 3rd of course.

Are you running a barrel in? Cleaning between groups? If so, the outlier could be the first ‘fouling’ shot

 

[Utectok]

Why would you want to waste barrel life with groups when you have a load that works ?
In real terms hunting or target shooting you would be using one round at a time .

It’s not a waste it’s important to get a good zero particularly if you want to stretch it out a bit. You can only get a reliable zero with a minimum of 10 shots. Otherwise you’re just picking 3 random shots out of your overall dispersion. That could be 2-3 or more clicks off the true zero. If your trying to hit a 4” target (or the kill zone on animal) at 350m that will make a difference. And anyway shooting is fun right!!

 

[Utectok]

You can off course stack all your 3 shot groups electronically or on paper ontop of each other to make a bigger group

 

[jcampbellsmith]

Use an electronic target.
Regards
JCS

I shoot at Shoot n C targets on the right and analyse the shots when I get home using Excel (on the left). A Silver Mountain Target system is what I use. All shots are fired at the same aiming point so once I have fired a fouling group of 3 shots, it's really hard to assess the following groups as I shoot.
Regards
JCS

 

[A Guy Out West]

I would shoot a 10 shot group and see what it looks like. Your groups appear just over 1 moa which is good and won’t be an issue for shooting a long ways out.

I know, there’s nothing wrong with a MOA group. However, once bitten by the accuracy bug, if they are not all at least touching it’s irritating.

 

[A Guy Out West]

Why would you want to waste barrel life with groups when you have a load that works ?
In real terms hunting or target shooting you would be using one round at a time .

The accuracy bug is a terrible thing.

 

[A Guy Out West]

It’s a relatively heavy hitter

Could be driver error on the third shot quite simply. A fourth might be even worse, assuming the outlier is the 3rd of course.

Are you running a barrel in? Cleaning between groups? If so, the outlier could be the first ‘fouling’ shot

I’ve got a break and I have sand bag support at forearm and butt stock. It’s locked in solidly and the recoil is negligible thanks to the Fat Bastard break. I only cleaned it after the first 20 shots. I’ve have over 200 through it now. I’ve done the barrel break in thing with a few rifles and have never noticed the difference. Some swear by it, I just don’t know.

 

[A Guy Out West]

It’s not a waste it’s important to get a good zero particularly if you want to stretch it out a bit. You can only get a reliable zero with a minimum of 10 shots. Otherwise you’re just picking 3 random shots out of your overall dispersion. That could be 2-3 or more clicks off the true zero. If your trying to hit a 4” target (or the kill zone on animal) at 350m that will make a difference. And anyway shooting is fun right!!

What if I shot 3, 3 shot groups and they were in the same hole or all touching. Would that still be random or would that be a credible group?

 

[Utectok]

What if I shot 3, 3 shot groups and they were in the same hole or all touching. Would that still be random or would that be a credible group?

If that would be the case, I think your percentage of it being repeatable goes up. From memory to about a 40% error (or 60% repeatability), Your certainty goes up to near 80% at around 30 shots. Others may be better with the statistical details (@Mungo ?). Anyway for me the takeaway for me was groups of less than 10 shots don't really tell you anything and nearly any modern rifle will shoot 0.25 moa groups with three shots eventually just by fluke. 3-3 shot groups is better 4 better still but interspose them on top of eachother if you can? It's all a little overwhelming to start with, at least for me, as we were all taught cloverleaf 3 shot groups were the goal.... Mind you we all assumed the next time we shot a 3 shot group a couple of clicks off we had knocked the rifle or something not realising its normal dispersion not a wandering zero. It also means most of our 1/2" grouping rifles "if i do my bit" were really 1" grouping rifles if you actually test them in a statistically valid way.... Unfortunately the maths don't lie.

 

[Mungo]

Attached is a target which illustrates my frustration. Tikka SV in .300 WM, 178 gr. Hornady ELDX, 76-79 gr. Of Ramshot Grand. Of the 4, 3 shot groups, 3 of the groups had 2 bullets in the same hole all 4 groups had a flyer. Thoughts? I don’t know which shot was the flyer, if it’s the 3rd shot, I would assume barrel heat. I’ll have to retest and observe which round is the flyer. Could this be a bedding issue? I’m thinking bedding or barrel heat. Of note, the Ramshot Grand seems to be very accurate, produces minimal heat, burns clean, and cleans out the copper fouling. I have not tested the velocities yet but will do so when the rains stop. I think it’s a winner.

Looks completely normal to me. Identical to what happens when I simulate data from random distributions.

When I’m at my computer tomorrow I’ll post some examples. But this is exactly what you expect from random error with quite small SD.

 

[Greenmist]

How long between groups? Barrel cleaned between groups? Without knowing which shot is the flyer its difficult to say, it could be the first, cold bore, as you don't know which shot I'll assume you can't see the bullet hole with your scope, possibly a poa issue, either try turning the mag up if possible to observe the impact or invest in a spotting scope

 

[jcampbellsmith]

How long between groups? Barrel cleaned between groups? Without knowing which shot is the flyer its difficult to say, it could be the first, cold bore, as you don't know which shot I'll assume you can't see the bullet hole with your scope, possibly a poa issue, either try turning the mag up if possible to observe the impact or invest in a spotting scope

Watching your fall of shot is actually detrimental to group size. I shoot better when I don't know anything about the size of the group that's forming. I just focus on making a good job of the next shot.
Regards
JCS

 

[Greenmist]

Watching your fall of shot is actually detrimental to group size. I shoot better when I don't know anything about the size of the group that's forming. I just focus on making a good job of the next shot.
Regards
JCS

It could be ,depending how you take it, it can also highlight any errors