Thanks - you are indeed touching on the complex mix of science, research, evidence, politics and conjecture regarding policy development on lead ammunition worldwide - this is not a phenomenon unique to the UK nor unique to lead ammunition.
Given your views and insights would you be interested in attending one of BASC's sustainable ammunition days? Hopefully we will be running more events soon and it would be an opportunity to try out some non-lead loads and have some face to face discussion with BASC staff, coaches and fellow participants on your views. You could then report back on your findings to this forum.
For some background on what's involved see:
Dr Peter Marshall, BASC's head of training and education, writes about the new sustainable ammunition days and the recent trial event that took place.
basc.org.uk
For more general information see:
Ammunition Read all of our latest advice and guidance on ammunition, whatever your chosen shooting discipline. Shotgun Rifle Airgun Lead ammunition restriction proposals The Heath and Safety Executive published the UK REACH restriction dossier for lead ammunition on 6 May. The document outlines...
basc.org.uk
I've been re-reading your second link on lead ammunition information. It is reinforcing rather than dispelling my doubts about this move and BASC's position on it. For clarity, I've laid out the main areas below:
1. Scientific evidence justifying phasing out lead ammunition. As we know, the state of the science was inadequate to support this measure as at 2015-16. In reply to the question where is the evidence justifying this, BASC provides none after that date. Both this and your reply appear to confirm that BASC reversed position on lead without any science or evidence. There's really nothing to add, except that it is possible, yet far from certain that some adequately compelling evidence is discovered in future.
2. On the safety of using this in normal proofed shotguns.
"If your gun is nitro-proofed (i.e. it can fire modern lead loads) then it will be safe to fire standard performance steel. This is generally steel of size 4 or smaller." Yet, BASC recommends going two shot sizes larger than for lead. So BASC is not definitively saying that steel size 3 is safe.
"Tests have found that standard performance 24g steel loads did not cause any damage in thin-walled game guns, even after a thousand shots" This claim derived from a paper which also stated that guns used in the study were damaged by using no more than 50 cartridges of steel shot at loads appropriate for game. This study is however 30 years old, and no more recent study appears to exist on the subject of safety.
Surely BASC or cartridge manufactures could do a lot to assuage concerns on this critical point at modest cost by having somebody fire a couple of thousand steel cartridges (size 3, 32g) through, say, an old english boxlock, AYA Yeoman or no4 with half and full choke? Publishing the results, photos and posting a youtube video on this would do a lot more to advance a transition than any amount of insistence on what is currently a pretty spurious line of argument. Will this be done?
3. On the effectiveness of non-toxic shot.
BASC does not state that current alternatives to lead are suitable for "all normal game-shooting ranges" in normal proofed guns. They also indicate that in large steel shot sizes the density of the pattern is inadequate, while also claiming that in general the patterns and penetration are superior. However, there is no proper explanation for how a ballistically inferior pellet can have a superior result. It defies all we know about ballistics.
Yet, in the same webpage, relating to rifle ammunition, BASC says that where " is an absence of reasonable alternatives, we feel lead should continue to be used." To conclude, can BASC state that it is safe, effective and humane to fire relatively heavy steel loads of 32-44g in size 3 shot through a traditional English game gun with full choke, and do those loads have the same terminal effect at range? The answer appears to be "no", so why does BASC not stick to its own published opinion that lead should continue to be used?
Given, that BASC is allegedly acting on evidence, why is there no proper objective evidence as to the safety or effectiveness of these new cartridges? We need proper evidence that this stuff is safe and that it is ballistically equivalent. It's worrying that a full year after you've announced this nonsense that there is still no proper assurance that equivalent non-lead ammunition exists.
4. On the development of new cartridges.
Given that it is a scientific impossibility to produce a material with the same essential characteristics as lead, what is BASC doing claiming "further developments in cartridge manufacture
will rapidly meet any remaining needs"?
What will BASC do when, at the end of this "phased transition", there is still no equivalent substitute for lead cartridges?