“I certainly wouldn't ever suggest that they're in any way stupid to try, nor that they don't hve the best interest of their respective populations in mind. But nonetheless, they are rather bucking the overall consensus for now, and only history will allow us to judge them or laud their bravery in that respect.”
- It might be an interesting exercise to look from the other end of the spyglass - are you certain that the overall consensus is in favour of the ’vaccines’, given the numbers involved ( some countries are considerable larger than ours, eg the state of Uttar Pradesh has three times the population of Gt. Britain, and quite a number of other high population countries also use ivermectin)?
Do you give any credence whatsoever to the meta analyses (2) which have been undertaken, both of which demonstrate overwhelming benefit of use of ivermectin, then?
Im not so certain that the ‘broad consensus’ you mention covers the majority of global population, nor am I convinced that the pandemic can be tamed by virtue of use of leaky vaccines, vaccine passports for same and other nonsenses, and as yet unproven booster shots - it would appear to me that the broad consensus is in fact that simply put, ivermectin reduces reproduction and thus availability of virus, which is not the case with a vaccine which only partially works, and especially not at all convincingly against the now almost ubiquitous delta variant. Continued pressure applied by such unsuccessful means can only hasten the evolution of the next variant, which will similarly outplay the vaccine, much in the same way that over-reliance on not wholly lethal antibiotics has led to resistant strains of other nasties, or eg rodenticide-resistant rats and mice.
View attachment 220605
Nor can I personally see the benefit of trying to treat patients no longer creating virus with a treatment which prevents it reproducing, which is
exactly what is happening in latter part of the ‘PRINCIPLE’ study; to give ivermectin to patients in the second week of their illness, knowing full well as anyone who has studied the virus’s m.o. that the virus has ceased reproducing by then seems quite pointless and in fact ignoble, when it clearly serves no purpose, other than confirming that the ‘stable door’ should perhaps be closed, in the event of the ‘loss of the horse’ the week previously. Designed to fail?
I would define 'consensus' in terms of advisory bodies, countries and academic consensus. ie, consensus amongst experts and decision makers, not recipients of any given treatment. After all its extremely hard to tell if the population as a whole has an opinion one way or another, because in the case of Africa or India their choices aren't 'vaccines or Ivermectin' they're Ivermectin or nothing. India for example has approved basically all the vaccines (russian, chinese, american, european, the lot) and have also developed their own. They'd happily go for vaccination, clearly, but they simply can't get many doses or at least can't get them in peoples arms quick enough. Under these circumstances can you say that Indians aren't aligned with vaccination as a viable strategy? I wonder how many in India would take a vaccine if offered to them, today? It's the same situation for Africa.
There's also the question of expertise and engagement. I expect that in India, as in Britain, most are happy to listen to the advice of their doctor, or their government or their healthcare provider. If those sources say vaccination, most will go along with it. If they say Ivermectin, most will go along with that as well. The question of if the advice of a given government impacts 1 million or 1 billion people is rather secondary to the level of consensus if none of those folks have much of a personal opinion one way or the other and will just take the recommendation.
Oh, and as of this morning, 5.6 billion vaccines have been administered, with 2.3Billion people having had at least one dose. Even if every single person in India, all of Latin America and all of Sub-Saharan Africa were taking Ivermectin for COVID, they'd still struggle to form a majority vs the number of people who are vaccinated. And of course, the uptake even in the countries that have approved Ivermectin is probably way les than 50%.
As for the meta analyses you mention, I'm assuming you're talking about the ones on the FLCCC (and BIRD) websites. If so, then yes I've read them, and no I don't give them much credence. The reasons why are thus:
Hill, 2021 merged a load of other treatments (doxycycline, hydroxychloroquinine etc) in with Ivermectin muddying the results, gave no clear analysis of experimental certainty, and I have serious doubts about the reliability of the results and the level of bias in 5 out of the 6 key studies he cited as data sources due to unclear experimental endpoints, poor selection of cohorts to include folks without covid at all, and inclusion of combination therapies or incorrectly defined controls.
Kory, 2021 on the other hand was even worse. Half the trials he cited as RCTs weren't RCTs at all, they again had only poorly defined experimental outcomes, several included hydroxychloroquinine either as a co-therapy or even worse as a control masquerading as a standard treatment regime (despite it's proven risks and lack of demonstrable effectiveness). Oh, and he didn't even give any data on how he picked the original studies he assessed from the literature.
Then there's the most recent review by Bryant (2021). Again, the trials analysed were not selected using any recognized search methodology (it could have just been cherry picked data), two of the studies included cohorts with significant levels of folks with no covid at all, they again muddied the waters by including studies using other unproven therapies such as doxycycline as controls and drew mortality conclusions despite 2 of the trials assessed not even publishing mortality figures or elegible time points. There's a serious suggestion that the Elgazzar, 2020 trial, which was the one which both listed the largest trial cohort and reported the most significant benefit (and therefore served to increase the confidence intervals most significantly), is entirely fraudulent. It's since been withdrawn. This was the best of the bunch though, to be fair.
Notably all three of them continued to cite the same small group of studies throughout, despite there being plenty of other trials with equivalent size and experimental design to draw on being published over the period between the 3 publications. Again, I'm not saying that's a deliberate selection of cherry picked studies, but I question the continued reliance on such a small group of trials, especially as none of them bothered to publish their literature search methodology or selection criteria.
Or perhaps you're talking about the studies on ivnmeta.com? The ones citing data on relative benefit in percentage terms, but that don't publish any trial protocols and lump in a load of other inelegible treatments into the data without declaring them? Oh, and that have no assessment of confidence intervals or declaration of bias?
Any others I've missed?
Anyway, having given my reasons, I shall ask in turn; do you give any credence whatsoever to the many, many meta analyses undertaken which demonstrate no benefit to the use of Ivermectin? If so, why not?
Then there's your comment on the consensus of ivermectin effectively inhibiting viral replication (in a therapeutic setting as opposed to in a test tube). Far as I can tell, there's no such consensus at all, at least not outside BIRD and the FLCCC (again, they're the same group of people). The question of if Ivermectin can effectively inhibit viral reproduction
in vivo sufficiently to deliver therapeutic benefits and improve patient outcomes without toxicity from the dose required is a question the trials are trying to answer, so far with no compelling evidence to support it.
I will agree that COVID is unlikely to be eradicated through vaccination (or indeed any other intervention) at this stage though. It's endemic and will likely remain so.