And the longer it goes on, the more different it will be. For the better, I think.
Predictions on when ALL restriction are lifted
- Thread starter Tazz
- Start date
dartmoordog
Well-Known Member
Well I'm going to stick with my fantasy, although I prefer to call it "living in hope of a cleaner, greener World".
Getting there will be tough though, I have no illusions about that.
Reuters reporting that former MI6 Chief points finger at China
The world will have China's pants down over this
So If the CCP falls, at least some thing positive will come of this
The world will have China's pants down over this
So If the CCP falls, at least some thing positive will come of this
I don't see why it's always necessary to find someone to blame. A virus has done what viruses do: Mutate and become more successful. It could just have easily started with any kind of virus anywhere.
Wc 25/5 restriction will be eased I would guess. No idea about all restrictions but the pressures will be on the government to allow business to get back up and running.
All restrictions I think will be lifted by 1st week sept. There will be a phased return to normality from when the experts advise.
Where was I reading that a lockdown is unsustainable for a certain amount of time, I think it was said a few months with this virus though I’m unsure? Due to that more people will die because the economy collapses than those succumbed to the virus. I know I certainly do not envy the job of those who have to decide!
Where was I reading that a lockdown is unsustainable for a certain amount of time, I think it was said a few months with this virus though I’m unsure? Due to that more people will die because the economy collapses than those succumbed to the virus. I know I certainly do not envy the job of those who have to decide!
I really don't think there will be a return to "normality" for a pretty long time. Until there's a preventative injection in place that's available to all. Which I would anticipate will be 2 years away. But market forces will eventually determine that businesses and shops will return to work, but keeping social distancing in place and with advice that the vulnerable continue to practice lockdown.
I see Keir Starmer is badgering the government for an exit strategy. What that thick bugger can't grasp is that if the government do that, the impetus of the lockdown and it's benefits will be diluted (Well next week we can do this, so I'm starting now) and that any exit strategy should only be driven by conditions, not a desire for the opposition to claim they have set the country free!
I see Keir Starmer is badgering the government for an exit strategy. What that thick bugger can't grasp is that if the government do that, the impetus of the lockdown and it's benefits will be diluted (Well next week we can do this, so I'm starting now) and that any exit strategy should only be driven by conditions, not a desire for the opposition to claim they have set the country free!
Finding a vaccine for a virus such as CV19, would usually take at least 10years. There is massive effort underway by dozens of institutions and pharmaceutical companies around the globe, but still,18 months is an optimistic timescale.
paul o'
Well-Known Member
In Essex they are still building temp Morgue's and we are fitting palliative care stuff as folks are sent home more every day in there homes ,at some point we will run out of bariatric type beds aswell as the other types . I do hope this ends by sept as my lad is due off to uni and i'v paid for his London Flat already for the first year 
enfieldspares
Well-Known Member
Second week on July 2020. So I'd guess Friday 10th.
You must all remember that the current measures aren't really in place to stop the infection spreading, but to slow it.
Therefore, this is a simple exercise in exponential growth leading to herd immunity.
Some figures.
Based on this article: expert comments about herd immunity | Science Media Centre , the COVID virus requires 60% of the population to have the virus to provide herd immunity based on the virulence of the spread observed.
Therefore, to assure immunity of our assumed population of 70million, we need 42million people to get it and, not to be callous, either recover or die. Either is fine for our purposes here.
For exponential growth:
X(t) = X0 * b^t where xt is our end goal - 42mil cases, X0 is cases now, b is growth factor (new people infected by each current case)
For Covid-19, the groth factor can be extrapolated into the range of 1.1194 based on US data: Modeling Exponential Growth
The UK has seem similar rates of spread, so all else being equal, this should be broadly equivalent.
Therefore, when will social distancing no longer be useful?
Solving for t in the equation above based on the current reported case load of 93,873 and that b value gives us a value of 54-55 days until herd immunity, assuming no tailing off of infection rate as we move towards this state. However, I'd argue that actual case load is a lot higher than reported, so we might be able to knock a day or two off this.
Based on this, and assuming we can't slow infection rates further through government intervention, social distancing will have little to no beneficial effect in lets say 65 days to allow for a tail on the b value later on in the growth phase. I make that 19/06/20. Let's assume a decent safety margin of 4 weeks for further tailing of the b value and government inertia in collating data and making a recommendation, then we should be out of lockdown by mid July.
Yes, it's possible that we can manage this longer and work towards a vaccine, but I can say with 99.9999% certainty that we will not have any meaningful medication within this few month time frame, so herd immunity is the inevitable end play.
Of course, the less fun part is that based on a 3% mortality rate (yes, the UK current reported rate is closer to 12%, but I believe that to be an error in reporting which means that the vast majority of cases, which are mild, are not diagnosed, leading to this inflated figure), we're looking at 1.26M deaths. Fun times.
Therefore, this is a simple exercise in exponential growth leading to herd immunity.
Some figures.
Based on this article: expert comments about herd immunity | Science Media Centre , the COVID virus requires 60% of the population to have the virus to provide herd immunity based on the virulence of the spread observed.
Therefore, to assure immunity of our assumed population of 70million, we need 42million people to get it and, not to be callous, either recover or die. Either is fine for our purposes here.
For exponential growth:
X(t) = X0 * b^t where xt is our end goal - 42mil cases, X0 is cases now, b is growth factor (new people infected by each current case)
For Covid-19, the groth factor can be extrapolated into the range of 1.1194 based on US data: Modeling Exponential Growth
The UK has seem similar rates of spread, so all else being equal, this should be broadly equivalent.
Therefore, when will social distancing no longer be useful?
Solving for t in the equation above based on the current reported case load of 93,873 and that b value gives us a value of 54-55 days until herd immunity, assuming no tailing off of infection rate as we move towards this state. However, I'd argue that actual case load is a lot higher than reported, so we might be able to knock a day or two off this.
Based on this, and assuming we can't slow infection rates further through government intervention, social distancing will have little to no beneficial effect in lets say 65 days to allow for a tail on the b value later on in the growth phase. I make that 19/06/20. Let's assume a decent safety margin of 4 weeks for further tailing of the b value and government inertia in collating data and making a recommendation, then we should be out of lockdown by mid July.
Yes, it's possible that we can manage this longer and work towards a vaccine, but I can say with 99.9999% certainty that we will not have any meaningful medication within this few month time frame, so herd immunity is the inevitable end play.
Of course, the less fun part is that based on a 3% mortality rate (yes, the UK current reported rate is closer to 12%, but I believe that to be an error in reporting which means that the vast majority of cases, which are mild, are not diagnosed, leading to this inflated figure), we're looking at 1.26M deaths. Fun times.
landkeeper
Well-Known Member
Its a virulent virus thats mutated at least once to jump species , i have read there are already several strains
My bet is that life will never return to normal and restrictions in some form will remain for good
As far as having ccp pants down , some of the reported actions from them if true have been deplorable the suppression of cv information the detention of their own outspoken medical staff and the recall and hoarding of ppe are very suspect but the selling of not fit for purchace ppe is a deplorable act
My bet is that life will never return to normal and restrictions in some form will remain for good
As far as having ccp pants down , some of the reported actions from them if true have been deplorable the suppression of cv information the detention of their own outspoken medical staff and the recall and hoarding of ppe are very suspect but the selling of not fit for purchace ppe is a deplorable act
AN DU RU FOX
Well-Known Member
I reckon 7mths and maybe just maybe joe public might cotton on too something going on in the country, suns out lets carry on as normal!
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