Brexit

[Hornet 6]

Our legal system is so interwoven with Europe that we have to start somewhere. It makes a lot of sense to enshrine European law, into British law before dismantling it and changing it to suit ourselves.

If it gets into our 'new system' it will stay, you know it and I know it.
The only thing politicians have ever proven is they cannot be trusted to do anything except look after
themselves, they have no interest in looking after the population in general, or in doing something we want done.
The only politician that can be trusted is one that is long dead and cremated.

Neil.

 

[Apthorpe]

So I manufacture a widget and export it to the EU and have to comply with CE standards

But my widget has 3,000 componants which I out source

ALL of the components have to comply with EU so all my suppliers have to comply with the EU

What about all the stuff from China you say? Well anything sold into the EU by China must be CE marked so they all have to comply with EU standards

SO that leaves working conditions? Which we know are crap in China and India

So you view is if we leave the EU we can reduce working conditions and compeet with China & India?

Or do you think we will just re brand the EU directivs as UK directives?

And if we do that? and its a given that the immigration situation will not change past some lip service from the govt, what was the point of leaving the security of the EU and spending billions do it?

And the next decade or more we will be focused on not much else when we should have been focused on progress.

I am starting to side with the conspiracy theorists who rightly state the Govts remain campaign was pathetic, Labours remain campaign got virtualy no press coverage and the Govt wanted out so they could use Brexit as a smoke screen to cover up what is to come.

Because if that's not it then I am totally baffelled as to where the upside is.

So far as I can tell you're complaining that from a business perspective, it'd make no difference at all to you leaving the EU, yet somehow you still want to complain about it at length. Meanwhile, many other businesses manufacture widgets which they don't export to the EU, they will then benefit from not having to comply with EU standards. That is one upside to the majority of businesses which don't export to the EU.

As to what is the benefit of spending billions leaving the EU? Well, so far nobody has established that there is actually any net cost to leaving the EU, so we can discount that factor. The reality is that the net present value of leaving the EU is a large positive number. Even the largest figures touted as "divorce bills" are only four or five years worth of current contributions.

As for working conditions, the problem of competing with low foreign wages and conditions exists whether or not you are in the EU. Now you can't have free trade without facing that problem, and you can't avoid it indefinitely either.
It seems to me that you're unhappy about lots of things, few of which have anything at all to do with Brexit, and most of which have to do with adjusting to the realities of business in a world bigger than Western Europe. It seems to me that it is better to face those problems proactively and early, than to deny them and try to block them out.

Having politicians focused on something other than their usual meddling for a decade certainly sounds like an upside!

This conspiracy theory...what exactly is the conspiracy? That the Brexit campaign was a smokescreen to provide for what is effectively now another Government to cover up what? Frankly, if one is starting to side with conspiracy theorists on any topic at all, that is a very clear sign that one's opinions have become seriously unhinged. As with conspiracy theories, if you take in and accept as facts a lot of things that aren't facts, then it is only natural that your conclusions will be way out of whack.

I'd suggest that the main reason you're baffled about potential upsides is that you completely reject out of hand any information which doesn't confirm your existing view that it's a disaster. People on here have pointed out numerous upsides to leaving the EU ranging from political autonomy, less burden on infrastructure and public services, to more free trade, better regulation and straightforward money-saving. Apparently you reject all of those, while accepting some extraordinarily "fringe" views on the opposite side of the argument. I expect you don't accept the truth of anything I have said previously to you. This is just a function of what you choose to believe, not a reflection of the realities of the situation.

 

[ChesterP]

+1 to your post Althorpe, well said.

Meantime, in today's news, Tusk is playing hard ball....Quelle Surprise!

So, already we have 27 member states voting against the merger of the LSE and Deutsche Borse, and this morning, refusing to accept the condition requested by the UK that they discuss the terms of a trade deal with the triggering of article 50.

It seems that Farage was right all along, and that we need to stick two fingers up to the EU, refuse to pay our "Divorce settlement" partly on the basis of never having received audited accounts, and just accept that we will not get a trade deal. That is where we are heading anyway. Anything else will be a fudge and the EU will clearly do nothing that isn't in their express interests. They have no interest in benefiting the Uk in any way, shape or form. There is a world outside of the EU and one in which we can shape our own trade deals without EU interference. The real issue that we have to worry about is the competency of our own government.

The NI border question, raised as one of the stalling blocks to "a deal" as the EU full well know, cannot be answered by introducing a manned and policed border because no-one in Ireland wants that (understandably). NI is still safeguarded by introducing legislation to ensure that no-one can live or work there without being a UK citizen. Travel out of NI by non-uk citizens will be impossible without passport controls anyway, except into S Ireland.

Meantime, the UK government will enshrine most current EU legislation into UK laws anyway (ie business as usual) and probably take many decades unpicking it all because the reality is that it was never possible to sensibly repeal so many regulations and laws overnight. Besides, they have to decide which benefit government before looking at which benefit the population. That's just another reality.

It's a mess, but we all knew it would be. Was it worth it? It will be longer term, a picture that few are prepared to view at present. All governments are corrupt. The degree of corruption varies. In the case of the EU, that corruption is certainly larger than anything that the Uk government alone could get away with. Lets just hope that the past few decades of self serving, lying, cheating leadership that we've experienced is now shaped more honestly in light of the issues at hand that we have to face with focus and determination. Whatever the outcome of the EU dealing over the next few years, there is only one real issue for us as we head towards no trade deal, and that is, will the UK government buckle and pay a divorce settlement? Your answers on a postcard...

 

[NoIDeer]

If it gets into our 'new system' it will stay, you know it and I know it.
The only thing politicians have ever proven is they cannot be trusted to do anything except look after
themselves, they have no interest in looking after the population in general, or in doing something we want done.
The only politician that can be trusted is one that is long dead and cremated.

Neil.

https://a.msn.com/r/2/BBz5cLf?m=en-gb

???

 

[tackb]

+1 to your post Althorpe, well said.

Meantime, in today's news, Tusk is playing hard ball....Quelle Surprise!

So, already we have 27 member states voting against the merger of the LSE and Deutsche Borse, and this morning, refusing to accept the condition requested by the UK that they discuss the terms of a trade deal with the triggering of article 50.

It seems that Farage was right all along, and that we need to stick two fingers up to the EU, refuse to pay our "Divorce settlement" partly on the basis of never having received audited accounts, and just accept that we will not get a trade deal. That is where we are heading anyway. Anything else will be a fudge and the EU will clearly do nothing that isn't in their express interests. They have no interest in benefiting the Uk in any way, shape or form. There is a world outside of the EU and one in which we can shape our own trade deals without EU interference. the real issue that we have to face is the competency of our own government.

The NI border question, raised as one of the stalling blocks to "a deal" as the EU full well know, cannot be answered by introducing a manned and policed border because no-one in Ireland wants that (understandably). NI is still safeguarded by introducing legislation to ensure that no-one can live or work there without being a UK citizen. Travel out of NI by non-uk citizens will be impossible without passport controls anyway, except into S Ireland.

Meantime, the UK government will enshrine most current EU legislation into UK laws anyway (ie business as usual) and probably take many decades unpicking it all because the reality is that it was never possible to sensibly repeal so many regulations and laws overnight. Besides, they have to decide which benefit government before looking at which benefit the population. That's just another reality.

It's a mess, but we all knew it would be. Was it worth it? It will be longer term, a picture that few are prepared to view at present. All governments are corrupt. The degree of corruption varies. In the case of the EU, that corruption is certainly larger than anything that the Uk government alone could get away with. Lets just hope that the past few decades of self serving, lying, cheating leadership that we've experienced is now shaped more honestly in light of the issues at hand that we have to face with focus and determination.

well said !

 

[enfieldspares]

NI is still safeguarded by introducing legislation to ensure that no-one can live or work there without being a UK citizen.

Oh? Really?

So now we're going to repeal the Ireland Act 1949 and remove ninety-five year old free movement rights (that the 1949 Act re-affirmed to live and work in any part of the UK) from Irish Citizens?

That'll go down well in Eire and in the Dail.

The "Brits" arbitrarily repealing one of the fundamental tenets of the Anglo Irish Treaty 1922 and banning Irish Passport holders from living or working in Northern Ireland.

Travel out of NI by non-uk citizens will be impossible without passport controls anyway

Meaning we'll oblige BRITISH CITIZENS travelling from one part of the UK to another part of the UK to now carry and produce passports?

As how else will you "prove" who is British (with an Irish accent) and whose Irish (with an Irish accent).

Ph? Really?

That'll go down well in NI and in the NI Assembly. "Brits" from Northern Ireland...some the most "Brit" of the British...being forced to carry and produce in the three other countries of the UK passports to prove they are "Brits"?

 

[Chasey]

so far as i can tell you're complaining that from a business perspective, it'd make no difference at all to you leaving the eu, yet somehow you still want to complain about it at length.

yes. Because it will reduce manufacturing costs and red tape costs not one bit but increase export costs and limit the market significantly

meanwhile, many other businesses manufacture widgets which they don't export to the eu, they will then benefit from not having to comply with eu standards. That is one upside to the majority of businesses which don't export to the eu.

no one who exports outside the eu has to comply with the eu standards and they never have done, so i have no concept of what your talking about. I myself have sold products that are not ce marked to overseas markets. The discussion is on the eu related business.

as to what is the benefit of spending billions leaving the eu? Well, so far nobody has established that there is actually any net cost to leaving the eu, so we can discount that factor. The reality is that the net present value of leaving the eu is a large positive number. Even the largest figures touted as "divorce bills" are only four or five years worth of current contributions.

no net cost to leaving the eu? The estimated average cost of negotiating a trade deal is £50,000,000-£100,000,000 and that's not taking into account the cost of the sweetner deels we have to offer to make it happen. The cost of the eu us deal is in the billions now.

So how many trade negotiations do we need after exiting the eu?

The cost of repealing / altering the 1000s of eu laws? What do you reckon this will be? Take a guess to the nearest £1,000,000,000

and of course our new trade deal with the eu will include futher controbutions to the eu, so not the saving you think there

the conspirisoy theory thing is light hearted but i do think its likely the govt will use brexit to raise tax and push through some very unpopular policy. Personaly i don't believe the conspiracy because the shear cost of leaving the eu cant possably justifie any gain

i am very pleased you have some positive information to pass on to me about the future finanacial security of the uk

i don't believe there is such a thing as political autonamy and the other points you raise like "more free trade??? How exactly? We could trade freely outside the eu before so whats the difference now?

Better regulation? Better than what? And don't we need to stay broadly complient?

Burden on infrastructure and public services???? I have no idea what your talking about here so please expand. Any issues previously dealt with by the eu will now have to be dealt with in the uk and no doubt have to work in compliance with the eu so all i am seeing is a new section deeling with compliance and another increased section managing the stuff the eu previously did for us.


Function of what i choose to believe?

No not exactly. Its a function of analisis, research and discussion with people who are in positions of deeper understanding than i, and feed back from my wifes attendance at top level world trade meetings over the past months since the vote.

Where are you getting your information?

 

[JTO]

Quite right sikamalc, all speculation.

+1. I don't think many people who have made prophesies of what post-brexit Britain will be like, are qualified to make any forecast at all.

 

[enfieldspares]

It'll be, a post Brexit UK, like it was before. I'd guess. I can remember it.

But there will be one huge, vast, enormous, difference.

We won't have the trade that we had with the Commonwealth and we won't for certain be a nett exporter to the Commonwealth as we once were.

I'll cite Nigeria. You see BMW, Mercedes, Toyota, etc., etc., where forty years ago you saw Hillman, Austin, Triumph. Heck in Nigeria they even, now, drive on the right not on the left.

Where one there were Imperial typewriters "Made in Leicester" and railway equipment "Made in Britain" most is now Chinese made or made elsewhere than UK.

The new Lagos railway project is Chinese made gear. The big electric transformers contract is US won.

We no longer have the almost exclusive to us markets in the non-US English speaking countries of the world we did forty plus years ago.

And, as I've said earlier, if we want them the price in the 21st Century will be their nationals demanding free movement in return for our free trade.

These nations are the deferential colonial subjects of half a century ago. They are confident sovereign nations with politically aware peoples who won't accept the UK trying to re-impose "colonial" trading terms.

Indonesia is now Australia's biggest trading market...or so I understand by some statistics...and times have moved on. The big shopping centre that was attacked by terrorists in Kenya, for example, was Israeli money.

The new Kada Plaza cinema and mall in Benin City, Nigeria...my wife's birthplace...is Chinese money.

The UK isn't on 28 March 2019 going to wake up like Rip Van Winkle and find trade wise, with these Commonwealth nations, that things are back as they were in 1971.

Personally I wish we could turn back the clock. I was just a few months short of being old enough in 1975 but I have voted "out".

I've enough "nowse" I hope to know that if the exit is going to be May's vision of a hard Brexit that we'd now be better off "in".

Time has moved on too much. We can't turn it back.

It's as if we're like the sixty year old, married for forty years, the mortgage, kids, in laws etc all shared, now divorcing his wife.

As he's some misguided fantasy of re-meeting his old girlfriend of four decades ago...and who he hasn't bothered to keep in close contact with for those forty years...and thinking she's been sat for all that time waiting for him to come back.

Not realising that in those forty years she's matured, made her own circle of friends, developed her own independent perceptions and values and in fact has little if other than the most superficial now in common with him.

Life and sad to predict leaving the EU ain't like that.

 

[User00025]

Well said ChesterP a very good post.
For my money (which unfortunately will not happen) I would demand audited accounts,to be delivered in one month showing our liabilities versus previous payments by us. If not forthcoming no money will be paid and tell them to stick everything where the sun does not shine immediately. Much as I love Scotland as a country I would give Wee Jimmy the chance and also give her three months to get Indy 2 done. We could perhaps then get down to some serious business including getting rid of those whingeing remoaning politicians and get some decent ones who will work for Britain and not keep wanting to apologise to everybody for our faults. I know it's Utopia but it's what our Fathers fought for in two confrontations with one of our wonderful EU friends.

 

[enfieldspares]

I'd agree 4th H. Elsewise we paying our fair and outstanding share of the mortgage without actually seeing the true balance owing.

Heck I've friends like that who try to include their wine in my share of the restaurant bill after being invited to dine out with them.

I all for a fair split of the bill...but not for paying for what I've not had!

LOL!

 

[2130martin]

At this moment in time they are all sabre rattling but behind closed doors they realise they need us more than we need them and the deal will reflect that!!............otherwise why are they so upset we are leaving,I mean I have never seen anyone upset about divorcing a problem partner,they usually celebrate,the EU should have a new bank holiday to celebrate Brexit,they are going to be rid of us forever!!

 

[ChesterP]

It amounts to more than sabre rattling unfortunately. The reality of Brexit is simply this: The EU has no motivation to do us any favours. In fact, the exact opposite is true. They need to "make and example" to prevent collapse of the bloc, and make an example they intend on doing, irrespective of the rhetoric currently coming out of the EU. We have the LSE/Deutsche Borse ruling; we have the"no trade deal without a 60 Billion Euro" divorce settlement; we have the interference by the EU in Gibralta's Sovereignty, affecting some 30,000 UK citizens living there ( http://news.sky.com/story/brexit-guidelines-eu-hands-spain-power-over-gibraltars-future-10819502) and we have the conditions over a hard border in N Ireland that NO-ONE WANTS.

Despite all the poor mouthing, hand wringing and woe-are-us comments coming from the remainers camp (which still exist because they have refused to accept the result and still refuse to look at the potential for some very meaty positives in the longer run), we are where we are, and in the interests of the UK (sorry, but sod the EU, they are not Europe, they are a political entity wanting to control Europe) we need to get on with things. If this means taking a hard line and saying to the EU "Non, Nein, No!" to their demands, foregoing any worthless trade deals which will all be worked to their favour, not ours, and refusing to pay one red cent of the 60 Billion, then that may well be where we end up and may be the best place for us to end up. I hope that we do so that we have some money that can be injected straight into the NHS instead.

Too many people forget that Europe is not the EU and the EU is not Europe. I don't know a single person with any animosity towards Europe. Indeed, it is incumbent upon us all to remain on good terms as nations to safeguard our security and remember that the Europe that stands today could not have existed without the direct intervention of the very same United Kingdom that the EU are seeking to destroy now. It was Churchill who famously said in his "Four Pillars" speech that it is the aim of Europe to be united as one of those four pillars (Great Britain and it's trading and commonwealth security were another, separate entity which he never envisaged joining the United States of Europe), and one of the main aims was the protection of our Christian Religion and heritage and to resist all attacks upon it. He would turn in his grave if he knew what Europe had become and what our place in Europe had become.

We have a future and some very promising trade deals outside of the EU. We shouldn't let people like Tusk rattle our cages, as they stand to lose more than we do, and that is in no-one's interests. It is a shame that the EU are prepared to misrepresent Europeans. On one hand, they talk about Europeans, and on the other talk about "member states" a refusal to recognise sovereign nations as they are. Great Britain will remain a European nation after Brexit. We just won't be part of the failed EU which went o far in the control of sovereignty, the secularisation of "member states" and the fudging of Billions of Euros of taxpayers money to shore up nations which never really qualified to join all in the name of expanding the EU border with Russia, a dangerous game that has and will continue to backfire on them.

We will be better off in the long run but quite obviously are now a nation divided and can expect no support, only hand wringing, from the naysayers who fail to recognise that humanity is about more than the economy. All imho and with no with wish nor intention of getting into any debate over it. It's an opinion which at least half the nation won't ever share.

 

[timbrayford]

The simple solution is for Mrs May to do absolutely nothing and just go to WTO rules, you can't negotiate with the EU whilst they have such childish attitudes.

 

[Hayduke]

Next to no one trades by WTO rules, every one sets up trades deals.

We were told from the outset there would be no trade negotiations until we leave the EU, now they are saying that once the exit is agreed we can talk trade deals, probably in autumn. Bringing trade talks forward 18months. This equals a Compromise, which is at the heart of all good deals and relationships. This is all good.

There should be some easy wins for negotiators ahead: Neither side wants a hard border with NI/Republic; the repeal bill will put EU law into UK law; both sides want to look after their respective expat nationals interests (and those with lives here now will be good to stay , the work shy might have problems). The money is no biggie we are committed the current EU spending round till 2020 we have some pension obligations and we will probably keep working with a few of the Collaborative EU development funds (science etc).

Or you can take inspiration from the comments section of the Mail, believe we still have an empire and consider all this and jonny foreigners as dodgy.

Things might hit the rocks as the EU have said they won't do sector by sector deals (it was widely anticipated that we would secure good deals for finance and automotive sectors, possibly at the expense of agriculture and fishing (again!)), and they won't allow individual EU countries to do deals with us.

The whole thing is rather tedious. But if we become economically worse off, and Scotland votes for independence, splitting the UK. It will not have been worth it.

 

[timbrayford]

The petulant response of J-C Juncker and his colleagues to our democratic vote merely confirms the wisdom of voting to leave. I don't think that empires come into it, apart from the central European one that we will soon be no part of.

 

[Pedro]

What it boils down to is that the UK is a big consumer market. Maybe not the biggest in Europe, but still a significant one. If the politicians in Europe play too hard and that results in less business for the likes of BMW, VW and Seat just to mention a few vehicle manufacturers, then you can guarantee that those businesses will be creating merry hell with their governments who will suffer come election time.

So yes, they will play hard ball and look to score points and hope to extract a big wedge of a divorce settlement, but joint custody is in everyone's' interests. So it'll drag on interminably, the parties in opposition will moan like hell, but a deal will be done where both sides can say they have won, but have had to make compromises.

And the Scots will see that being part of the UK is better than not after Brexit is finalised. Which is why the SNP are all fired up to have another (once in a lifetime) referendum before that. As though the Westminster government doesn't realise that! Talk about being obvious. But I digress.

 

[enfieldspares]

I don't agree on the BMW thing Pedro. The UK will still import just as many BMW cars if there is a hard Brexit.

It's just that they'll attract post Brexit UK tax. Say 10%. Perversely that...making them more expensive...will make them more desirable.

It's a "luxury" marque and most that drive new ones do it either as a company car or as a self-employed tax write off. What it costs is largely irrelevant.

That it post hard Brexit has a 10% import tax won't concern those who buy the new ones in the least. It'll restore the exclusivity the marque has lost in the last two decades.

At least that's my belief. The BMW sells on a perception of exceptionalism.

It's not..like the Ford, Vauxhall, Kia or whatever selling on price where a 10% price increase does matter.

 

[Psyxologos]

Ireland, Scotland, Gibraltar, it is all going according to plan. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you......little england.

 

[tom308w]

Ireland, Scotland, Gibraltar, it is all going according to plan. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you......little england.

whats small scotland going to do on its own with no money and the snp in charge total collapse