Help analysing OCW data please.

[trucraft]

Went out today and shot 7 charge weights with my 6.5 saum.
H1000
Barnes 127LRX.
Mirage wasn’t good at times so I can’t rule out some effects on groups.
However I want to find the most forgiving load.
So looking to see which area you more experienced people would be looking to go back and fine tune.?
I have an idea where I would but like to see what others say.
Everything loaded was 20 thou off jam.
I obviously intend to do a final seating depth test too.
Had stif bold lift on final charge!

 

[Andyquadra]

more work around No 6

 

[Mungo]

That’s random variation. Pick whichever you want.

 

[Tim.243]

All look dead deer to me...

 

[Brave Echo Niner]

I would be exploring 60.6 Grains (Centre of where it looks a velocity flatspot is) at varying seating depths.
I would load 3 groups worth and shoot a 5 shot group with each, which will give you a better indication of group size and ES/SD than the three round groups you're currently using.

From there check you are happy with ES/SD and choose the best grouping seating depth.

 

[BE Precision]

pretty flat in there, apart from the flyer

 

[Mungo]

pretty flat in there, apart from the flyer

View attachment 427296

Ooh!

Can I break out the simulations? Can I?

 

[kenbro]

Those are pretty good for 500 yards….

 

[trucraft]

I appreciate the input, especially the time taken to plot a graph which I’m crap at.
I know lots of people will have different opinions.
And yes 3 shot groups I know …
I’m not specifically looking for the smallest group at this point but more the location of the shots as well as velocity nodes.
The flyer on group 5 is annoying as I can’t account for it I may retest it to put my mind at rest.
Otherwise I see two nodes.
60..4 - 60.8
61.2 & 61.7

 

[Mungo]

I appreciate the input, especially the time taken to plot a graph which I’m crap at.
I know lots of people will have different opinions.
And yes 3 shot groups I know …
I’m not specifically looking for the smallest group at this point but more the location of the shots as well as velocity nodes.
The flyer on group 5 is annoying as I can’t account for it I may retest it to put my mind at rest.
Otherwise I see two nodes.
60..4 - 60.8
61.2 & 61.7

Really - there is nothing here that can’t be explained by statistical noise. It’s an accurate rig.

Pick the rough speed you want and go with that.

 

[Mungo]

I appreciate the input, especially the time taken to plot a graph which I’m crap at.
I know lots of people will have different opinions.
And yes 3 shot groups I know …
I’m not specifically looking for the smallest group at this point but more the location of the shots as well as velocity nodes.
The flyer on group 5 is annoying as I can’t account for it I may retest it to put my mind at rest.
Otherwise I see two nodes.
60..4 - 60.8
61.2 & 61.7

Also: what you’re calling a ‘flyer’ in group 5 just isn’t.

Absolutely everything you’ve presented here can be explained by random variation.

Really. There is nothing in your groups or your speeds that shows anything that suggests one load is more accurate than another.

Don’t waste any time or brain space on this. Just pick one and go from there.

 

[Mungo]

See this:

Thread '“Mind blow” I mean it’s all made up self deception!!!??'

Dec 21, 2022

• Utectok
• Replies: 78
• Forum: Ammunition, Reloading & Ballistics

• 

I simulated data and showed that you could create patterns that look EXACTLY like yours, even if there was actually no real difference.

 

[trucraft]

Also: what you’re calling a ‘flyer’ in group 5 just isn’t.

Absolutely everything you’ve presented here can be explained by random variation.

Really. There is nothing in your groups or your speeds that shows anything that suggests one load is more accurate than another.

Don’t waste any time or brain space on this. Just pick one and go from there.

Appreciate your advice.
I am definitely guilty of overthinking things.
I have to say this combination doesn’t leave anything standing out like it has in the past on other combinations I’ve tested and other rifles

 

[Mungo]

Appreciate your advice.
I am definitely guilty of overthinking things.
I have to say this combination doesn’t leave anything standing out like it has in the past on other combinations I’ve tested and other rifles

It’s an example of what I think is a general rule: if you’re firing consistently produced ammo using a well made rifle, put together by someone who knows what they’re doing using good components, it will be extremely difficult to detect any effect of varying the load.

 

[trucraft]

Not sure I should bother with seating test now

 

[Mungo]

Not sure I should bother with seating test now

I have never seen any data that suggests it makes any difference at all outside of international level bench rest shooting. Even then, it requires enormous sample sizes shot from flawless rigs.

 

[Malxwal]

I've done seating depth tests a la Berger, and they were quite conclusive for VLD, not so much for Hybrids, although the tests still directed me to a jump.
I'd never bother with such stuff for a stalking rifle, but I'm thinking you've built a 6.5 SAUM as a dual purpose kind of fellow?

 

[Tim.243]

I have never seen any data that suggests it makes any difference at all outside of international level bench rest shooting. Even then, it requires enormous sample sizes shot from flawless rigs.

I don't think people can achieve such shots as the next shot can never be the same as the last as you can't predict what the next one or how you will affect it. It can be very close but never the same as you can only measure "what has been fired"

A dozen eggs and one might be have a double yoke you could x ray it or weigh it but to find out crack it open lol

 

[Sonicdmb73]

I don't think people can achieve such shots as the next shot can never be the same as the last as you can't predict what the next one or how you will affect it. It can be very close but never the same as you can only measure "what has been fired"

A dozen eggs and one might be have a double yoke you could x ray it or weigh it but to find out crack it open lol

Poor analogy, I could from 6000 thousand laying birds in one (of many) buildings select ever double yolk. As for x ray don't need that or to crack it open either (apart from to fry it for breakfast). Weight you are actually onto something there, maybe you could hold a candle to the correct answer. Mind you it doesn't help with the load development but it does make a nice butty.

 

[Tim.243]

Poor analogy, I could from 6000 thousand laying birds in one (of many) buildings select ever double yolk. As for x ray don't need that or to crack it open either (apart from to fry it for breakfast). Weight you are actually onto something there, maybe you could hold a candle to the correct answer. Mind you it doesn't help with the load development but it does make a nice butty.

yes, however having a light box was what i remember as a kid that dad made up for us to go through the daily laid eggs from our hens.
that was 50 plus years ago lol
shot 2 muntjac last night with all the load development in the world didn't stop the first one (quite a small buck) at 152 standing on a quartering angle and righting off both front shoulders loads of meat damage but it didn't suffer or get up